The Bhartiya Janata Party in Varanasi is proclaiming that it is about to give India its second prime minister. But Lal Bahadur Shahstri did not contest two seats simultaneously. Perhaps it is with good reason that Narendra Modi has chosen to contest both from Vadodara in Gujarat and from Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh. As a Banarsi who has seen the political whirlwinds of Uttar Pradesh, I don't see Varanasi as being a safe seat for Modi.

There's no doubt that Varanasi has long been an eastern Uttar Pradesh bastion of the BJP and that of its backbone, the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh. Varanasi has over 15.5 lakh registered voters. Of this, roughly four lakh are Muslims. In the last Lok Sabha election in 2009, over 6.5 lakh people cast their votes. The winning candidate, Murli Manohar Joshi of the BJP, won a little over two lakh votes. Contesting on a Bahujan Samaj Party ticket, Muslim strongman Mukhtar Ansari won around 1.85 lakh votes. Local politician Ajai Rai contested from the Samajwadi Party, getting over 1.2 lakh votes. The Congress party's Rajesh Mishra earned some 66,000 odd votes. Vijay Prakash Jaiswal, contesting on an Apna Dal ticket, got a similar 65,000 votes.


Those numbers suggest the BJP will not not win Varanasi easily. Varanasi is not one of those seats where the winning margins are in lakhs.

The BJP claims there's a Modi wave this election, and no doubt the BJP's prime ministerial candidate himself contesting Varanasi would have some impact on a voter's mind. Young voters may especially be influenced. The BJP also benefits from anti-incumbency against the second term of the United Progressive Alliance. Another big thing going for Modi is that the BJP has tied up with Apna Dal in Uttar Pradesh. The Apna Dal is a party of the Kurmis, an other backward class peasant community.

At the same time, we'll have to consider that Mukhtar Ansari, influential with the city's Muslim voters, has chosen not to contest this election. He has not announced support for any party, but his absence from the race is thought to favour the Congress. The votes going to Arvind Kejriwal would otherwise have been Modi's. A few BJP voters may also be upset at the snub Modi gave sitting BJP MP Murli Manohar Joshi by forcing him to vacate the Varansi seat.

Had Mukhtar Ansari, a convicted politician who often contests from jail, been contesting this election, the BJP and the RSS would have been able to polarise this election on Hindu-Muslim lines and prevent Hindu voters from thinking of options other than the BJP. Ansari's smart withdrawl from the race has taken away the potential strategy of Hindu Hero vs Muslim Villain.

There are those who say that Modi is an outsider who may choose Vadodara and resign from Varanasi if he wins both. By contrast, Ajay Rai of the Congress is a local who has been MLA for five times, including once with the BJP.

The Bahujan Samaj Party's Vijay Prakash Jaiswal is a lightweight who will take away dalit votes, but the Samajwadi Party is said to be considering withdrawing its candidate in favour of Ajay Rai.

If you take into account the Congress' traditional vote, the tacit or explicit support of the BSP and the SP, Ajay Rai's popularity and the Muslim votes that Mukhtar Ansari is leaving for him, it's clear that Modi has a very tough fight on his hands. Many have slipped on the ghats of Banaras.

Gaurav Kapoor is a businessperson in Varanasi and organises the Banaras Festival.