Is Amit Shah responsible for the Bharatiya Janata Party losing its electoral magic? Publicly, no one in the BJP seems ready to respond to this question. But in private, some senior leaders admit that their reverses in the latest by-polls had a great deal to do with the new BJP president's flawed campaign strategy and his high-handedness in selecting candidates.

On Tuesday, as results came in for by-elections to 33 assembly seats and three Lok Sabha constituencies in nine states, the BJP had clearly taken a hit. The saffron party lost 13 of the 24 seats it held in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat, even though had swept these states in the Lok Sabha election four months ago.

In addition to being seen as an early test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity, these by-elections were the first opportunity to see how Amit Shah would perform as party president. As trends showed a setback for the party, some BJP leaders  blamed party leadership's poor selection of candidates.

Polarising the electorate

“Our candidate selection was perhaps not good enough,” BJP leader Sidddharth Nath Singh said during a television discussion. Union minister Uma Bharti also had a similar explanation. “This setback is not a verdict on Modiji,” she told reporters. “Our local leaders and the candidates we fielded are responsible for the party’s poor performance.”  It is common knowledge that Shah had the final word selecting the candidates.

Shah was also responsible for planning the party's campaign strategy for the by-polls. For instance, he took the decision to put Yogi Adityanath, the Lok Sabha member from Gorakhpur, in charge of the BJP campaign committee in UP. The saffron-robed BJP leader, who is known for his hate speeches, previously had little influence beyond Gorakhpur and its neighbouring districts. The moment he was made the party’s star campaigner for all of UP, it became clear that the BJP was bent upon creating a communal divide in Uttar Pradesh.

The party attempted to convince Hindu voters that they were facing a "love jihad" from Muslim men, who were allegedly wooing women from other communities in order to convert them to Islam. The BJP also tried to create a controversy about a loudspeaker that was removed from a temple in Moradabad.  As the results indicate, this polarisation strategy found few takers on the ground.

Another factor contributing to the defeat, insiders say, is that several BJP members of Parliament have been offended by the the high-handed manner in which they are being treated by the Modi and Shah. In Thakurdwara in Uttar Pradesh, for example, Moradabad MP Sarvesh Kumar did not participate in the campaign. “Sarvesh wanted a ticket for his son because it was he was had vacated Thakurdwara seat," said Tarun Kumar Chouhan, a BJP leader in the region's Kala Jhanda village. "But now that his son has been denied ticket by Amit Shah, he has become completely inactive."

The BJP lost Thakurdwara to SP candidate Nawab Jaan Khan by a huge margin. Significantly, this seat has been a BJP stronghold for over two decades. It had been continuously represented by Sarvesh Kumar since 1991, except when the Bahujan Samaj Party’s Vijay Yadav won the seat in 2007.

Rising tensions

In the Lok Sabha elections, Amit Shah is credited with having engineered a coup of sorts in Uttar Pradesh as the BJP won 71 of the state's 80 seats. Even though he continues to enjoy Modi's backing, tensions are clearly rising in the BJP, stoked by growing number of disgruntled leaders.

Many in the BJP believe that Amit Shah’s future depends on the outcome of Maharashtra and Haryana assembly polls, scheduled for October 15. If the party and its allies fail to win power in these states, the road for him could be bumpy.

In Maharashtra, in particular, the BJP and its ally, the Shiv Sena, have locked horns over seat sharing. The Sena has already rejected BJP’s proposal that it be allowed to contest 135 seats of the state's 288 seats, and it is in no mood to give up its claim over the chief minister's seat should the coalition be voted to power. The BJP's latest electoral reverses, not just in UP but also in the neighbouring Gujarat, is bound to strengthen the Sena's bargaining position.