Sixty four per cent of Indians believe that the country's economic situation is good, while only 30% believed it is bad, according to new findings by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. This seems unusual, because 60% of Indians polled were not particularly satisfied with their personal circumstances.
“It was noteworthy and interesting that a larger proportion of the Indian public thinks that things are going well economically in India, than are themselves satisfied with their own circumstances,” said Sanjay Reddy, Professor of Economics at the New School for Social Research, in New York. “ This is perhaps a reflection of the insufficiently inclusive growth process in recent years.”
But the ability to differentiate between the health of the economy as a whole, and individual well-being is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to dissecting Indian public opinion. For instance, the ability to differentiate between economic collective versus individual well-being didn’t stop 71% of Indian’s polled from expressing the view that they believe the economic situation in the country will improve over the next 12 months, compared to 16% who believe it will stay the same, and 5% who believe it will worsen.
Fears and hopes
Certain truisms do prevail, however, in the case of what Indian's rate as their biggest sources of worry in terms of the economy. At least 86% of those polled believed rising prices were a “very big problem”, followed closely by 79% who expressed similar fear on the issue of a lack of employment opportunities. Inequality, or the “rich-poor gap,” was thought of as a very big problem by 70% of people, while only 49% expressed similar levels of worry about public debt.
But despite these fears, it seems that Indians consider global trade and foreign investment to be more of a solution to their woes, than an added headache. At least 49% of those polled believed trade with other countries led to job creation, while just less than half that number, 24%, believed it led to losses. A virtually identical number had the same opinion on whether foreign trade lead to an increase in workers wages.
“I think it suggests that the Indian populace is very well attuned to recent events,” said Andrew Foster, a Professor of Economics at Brown University. “There is little question that the opening of India's markets has coincided with a period of substantial economic growth and in particular in the creation of new and better remunerated types of employment in India,” he said.
Room for debate
The extent to which these Pew studies seem to suggest an extraordinary amount of public support for foreign involvement in the Indian economy it not without its sceptics, however. Aditya Bhattacharjea, a Professor at the Delhi School of Economics, had issues with the Pew surveys’ basic presentation. “ They never publicise their sampling methodology, coverage, or error margin. It is tucked away in an appendix on 'Methods in Detail', and the entry on India concedes that the sample was disproportionately urban,” he said.
Pew’s Methods in Detail section does concede that its sample size was disproportionately urban, declaring a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. It goes on to explain that its data was weighted to reflect the actual urban distribution in India. Nevertheless, given the discrepancy, Bhattacharjea believes the results should be taken with a grain of salt.
But despite the technical issues in methodology, the study’s findings still seem to reflect strains of nuance in public opinion that often go unaddressed. Sanjay Reddy believes that these nuances actually provide a far more accurate picture of the complex ways in which Indians, and others around the world, have come to view the process of globalisation. “Some people feel the benefits more than the harms, and others the obverse,” he said. “Taken as a whole the public of the countries concerned, including India, are perhaps more sophisticated than gung-ho academic economists who view globalisation as an unalloyed good or bad, in this respect.”
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“It was noteworthy and interesting that a larger proportion of the Indian public thinks that things are going well economically in India, than are themselves satisfied with their own circumstances,” said Sanjay Reddy, Professor of Economics at the New School for Social Research, in New York. “ This is perhaps a reflection of the insufficiently inclusive growth process in recent years.”
But the ability to differentiate between the health of the economy as a whole, and individual well-being is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to dissecting Indian public opinion. For instance, the ability to differentiate between economic collective versus individual well-being didn’t stop 71% of Indian’s polled from expressing the view that they believe the economic situation in the country will improve over the next 12 months, compared to 16% who believe it will stay the same, and 5% who believe it will worsen.
Fears and hopes
Certain truisms do prevail, however, in the case of what Indian's rate as their biggest sources of worry in terms of the economy. At least 86% of those polled believed rising prices were a “very big problem”, followed closely by 79% who expressed similar fear on the issue of a lack of employment opportunities. Inequality, or the “rich-poor gap,” was thought of as a very big problem by 70% of people, while only 49% expressed similar levels of worry about public debt.
But despite these fears, it seems that Indians consider global trade and foreign investment to be more of a solution to their woes, than an added headache. At least 49% of those polled believed trade with other countries led to job creation, while just less than half that number, 24%, believed it led to losses. A virtually identical number had the same opinion on whether foreign trade lead to an increase in workers wages.
“I think it suggests that the Indian populace is very well attuned to recent events,” said Andrew Foster, a Professor of Economics at Brown University. “There is little question that the opening of India's markets has coincided with a period of substantial economic growth and in particular in the creation of new and better remunerated types of employment in India,” he said.
Room for debate
The extent to which these Pew studies seem to suggest an extraordinary amount of public support for foreign involvement in the Indian economy it not without its sceptics, however. Aditya Bhattacharjea, a Professor at the Delhi School of Economics, had issues with the Pew surveys’ basic presentation. “ They never publicise their sampling methodology, coverage, or error margin. It is tucked away in an appendix on 'Methods in Detail', and the entry on India concedes that the sample was disproportionately urban,” he said.
Pew’s Methods in Detail section does concede that its sample size was disproportionately urban, declaring a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. It goes on to explain that its data was weighted to reflect the actual urban distribution in India. Nevertheless, given the discrepancy, Bhattacharjea believes the results should be taken with a grain of salt.
But despite the technical issues in methodology, the study’s findings still seem to reflect strains of nuance in public opinion that often go unaddressed. Sanjay Reddy believes that these nuances actually provide a far more accurate picture of the complex ways in which Indians, and others around the world, have come to view the process of globalisation. “Some people feel the benefits more than the harms, and others the obverse,” he said. “Taken as a whole the public of the countries concerned, including India, are perhaps more sophisticated than gung-ho academic economists who view globalisation as an unalloyed good or bad, in this respect.”