After the Congress’ dismal show in Assembly elections in four states and one Union Territory this month, there is a growing realisation among cadres that they can no longer depend on the Gandhi family alone to revive the party and win them elections. While they are not yet ready to forsake the Gandhis, there is a clamour in the party to promote strong state leaders who can be entrusted with the task of nursing the ailing Congress back to health in their respective regions.
Having lost control of Assam and Kerala, the grand old party is in the throes of an intense internal churn. The demoralisation in the Congress ranks is similar to what was witnessed after the party’s rout in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, and the subsequent Assembly polls in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand. Nevertheless, the string of electoral defeats was seen as a passing phase. Congress members were convinced that time would prove to be a proverbial healer and that the party’s graph would improve once the “Modi magic” started to fade. There was some cheer in the party when Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi returned from his mysterious 56-day sabbatical last year in a new avatar. Not only was he more vocal and visible, but he was also unafraid to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
However, this optimism proved to be short-lived as Rahul Gandhi failed to provide the kind of leadership expected of him, even though he did manage to get under the skin of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party with his barbs against Modi. While party insiders have been expressing their doubts about Rahul Gandhi’s capabilities in private conversations for some time, matters have now come to a head. The growing public anger against dynasty politics has only made matters worse. The latest round of assembly polls has led to virtual panic among party members who are becoming increasingly convinced that Rahul Gandhi cannot salvage the fortunes of the Congress or save their political careers.
“It is quite clear that the centre cannot hold any longer…the power has to shift to the states,” said a Congress leader who was previously a chief minister. “We must build and empower state leaders… that’s the way ahead as the party’s revival will begin from the states.”
Time for change
From former chief ministers Prithviraj Chavan, Digvijaya Singh and Ajit Jogi, and former Union minister Kamal Nath are among those pressing for the promotion of state leaders. They lament the fact that the Congress leadership depended far too much on one leader (Tarun Gogoi in Assam and Bhupinder Singh Hooda in Haryana) and failed to build a second rung of leadership in the states. Party veterans recalled that Sanjay Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi had taken a gamble decades ago when they promoted young leaders like Kamal Nath, Ashok Gehlot, and Digvijaya Singh, stating that there was merit in the old system where a chief minister or state party president was never allowed to become all-powerful as there was always a rival contender snapping at his heels.
Having deliberately reduced state leaders to mere appendages, the party is now paying the price for the excessive dependence of the states on the centre. “The states should have provided strength to the centre, but over the years this order has been reversed,” said a senior Congress office bearer. “Now that the centre cannot sustain them, the states are unravelling.”
Instead of nurturing its state leaders, the Congress leadership has allowed them to leave the party, including Birender Singh and Rao Inderjit Singh in Haryana, YS Jaganmohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh, Vijay Bahuguna and eight legislators in Uttarakhand, Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam and Kalikho Pul in Arunachal Pradesh.
Rahul's role
These rumblings in the party are basically an acknowledgement that the appeal of the Gandhi family is diminishing. But as the party prepares for long-awaited brainstorming session at the forthcoming meeting of the Congress Working Committee – expected to be held early next month - it is unlikely that any member of the party’s highest decision-making body will request Rahul Gandhi not to take over the leadership mantle or suggest that the present hierarchy - Sonia Gandhi as Congress president and Rahul Gandhi as vice-president – should not continue.
On the contrary, the sycophantic nature of Congress members may well lead them to press for Rahul Gandhi’s early elevation. They had rushed to the rescue of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi when they took the bale for the party’s drubbing in the last general election and offered to step down. It is not certain if the Congress Working Committee members will urge the leadership to overhaul the party organisation, long overdue after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, though party members have stepped up the demand for a reshuffle. After the Assembly election results were declared, Congress general secretary Digvijaya Singh said that the party needs a “surgery” and that the time for introspection is over.
Sonia in focus
Undoubtedly, there is a section in the party which wants Rahul Gandhi to take over as Congress president at the earliest so that he can put his team and his strategy in place. On the other hand, there is a larger section that wants Sonia Gandhi to continue as party chief and would prefer if Rahul Gandhi is given a more defined role so that there is greater clarity about the chain of command. Sonia Gandhi’s continuation would also put an end to the ongoing tussle between the party’s old guard and Rahul Gandhi’s supporters. Instead of serving as a bridge between the two groups, the Congress vice-president’s disdain for senior leaders has created a wedge between the two factions, even though it is becoming clear that the seniors cannot be cast aside. The recent political crisis in Uttarakhand and Arunachal Pradesh showed that the party needs its experienced leaders on board to handle such political bushfires, as Rahul Gandhi and his team are not equal to the task.
While an increasing number of Congress members have shed their initial inhibitions about speaking out on Rahul Gandhi’s abilities, there is also creeping apprehension that Sonia Gandhi’s image has taken a knock after the revelations in the National Herald case and the AgustaWestland helicopter bribery case. This fight is only going to get worse in the coming days as the Modi government is determined to discredit and weaken the Gandhi family and take the sheen off Sonia Gandhi’s image.
The party is hoping the ruling alliance will end up strengthening Sonia Gandhi if it persists with its campaign, just as Indira Gandhi had bounced back when the Janata Party government sought to settle scores with her. Even if Sonia Gandhi is not elevated to the status of a martyr, the Congress cannot afford to cast aside the Gandhis, not yet anyway. The family may not win them elections, but their presence at the helm keeps the party united, failing which it would fragment into several regional outfits.