It is a good thing that football is not played on paper and that social media opinion does little more than clutter the knowledgeable perspective on the game. In the lead-up to Euro 2016, popular perception had knocked Italy out of the tournament even before it had begun – the Azzurri had died a thousand deaths at the hands of the footballing public.
Social media was abuzz with the fact that Italian head coach Antonio Conte would take over at Chelsea after the tournament was over and that he already had one eye on the upcoming season.
Alas, those expecting Conte’s Italy to drop the ball were left vastly disappointed. This ragtag bunch of Italian misfits, labelled the weakest Italian team in a generation, was expected to come up short against the heavyweights Spain, Belgium, Germany and France. Except that they're now one win away from the semi-final.
The dark knights
In their first group stage game, dark horses Italy were set to play Belgium, brimming with the mercurial talents of Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku. History dictates that Azzurri are perennial tournament heavyweights, so a demotion to the “dark horse” category did serve in taking a boatload of pressure off Italian shoulders.
Nevertheless, Italy stifled Belgium, suffocated them, and then killed them off during the dying phase of the game to win 2-0, which prompted the rather hackneyed knee-jerk reaction – never discount Italy during a tournament.
As the tournament rolled on, it became clear that Conte had his team playing at a 110%. The final group stage match, against the Republic of Ireland, was lost 1-0 with several key personnel rested and served as a necessary wake-up call before their clash with the defending champions Spain.
If Italy vs Belgium was the footballing equivalent of Batman Begins, then the tactical masterclass that followed against Spain at the knock-out stage was the The Dark Knight. For 90 minutes, Conte’s team hassled and harried the Spanish as the decision to make Graziano Pelle man-mark Sergio Busquets, the fulcrum of the Spanish midfield, proved a masterstroke, drying up the flow of opposition attacks.
The victory against Spain however, may prove to be a Pyrrhic one, with Conte losing his midfield enforcers. Thiago Motta picked up a yellow card, leading to his suspension for the next match, and Daniele De Rossi is almost certainly ruled out for their key quarter-final clash against Germany on Saturday, after going off injured at half-time.
Considering the fact that Claudio Marchisio and Marco Veratti were already out of the tournament through injury, Italy, despite all its midfield riches, could resort to playing Parolo, Sturaro and Giaccherini in the centre of the park.
While Italy extracted a measure of revenge for the 4-0 hammering suffered at the hands of La Roja in the Euro 2012 final, their semi-final opponents in that tournament have never beaten them in eight competitive fixtures in major tournaments.
Revenge served cold
So the theme of revenge is right up there as Germany look to avenge the 2-1 loss suffered four years ago, which, absurd as it may sound, was Mario Balotelli’s finest moment in an Italian shirt.
Much like this time, it was declared that the semi-final opportunity from four years ago was Die Nationalmannschaft’s best chance to finally get one over their arch-rivals. But the men from the south of Europe did what they do best, an Italian job, with two goals by Balotelli in the opening half-hour putting paid to Germany’s tournament hopes.
At the 2006 World Cup in Germany, Italy broke the hearts of the host nation by snatching two late goals in the extra time of the semi-finals en route to winning their fourth world cup.
Joachim Loew, whose biggest worry at the moment is personal hygiene, will be a wiser and more cautious gaffer this time around, and will not underestimate their opponents. Crucially for Loew, his defence which was expected to crumble, has proved the tightest in the tournament and is the only one yet to concede a goal.
While Italy have passed two huge obstacles in the form of Belgium and Spain, this is Germany’s biggest test so far. The attack, previously led by the ineffective Mario Gotze, saw the other Mario – Gomez – getting a start instead. The team has looked much sharper up front as a result, finally sparking into life in their clash against Slovakia, whom they despatched 3-0.
Apart from the usual metronomic passing of Toni Kroos, the other plus points for the Germans going into this match include the form of Mesut Ozil, although he did miss a penalty against Slovakia, and, especially, of Julian Draxler who burst into life with a goal and an assist.
The attacking line of Gomez, Draxler, Ozil and Thomas Muller will come up against the defensive quartet of Buffon, Barzagli, Chiellini and the outstanding Leonardo Bonucci, all from Juventus. The outcome of this battle will in all probability decide the match. It could hinge on one man. Thomas Muller, yet to stamp his usual authority on this tournament, may come good on the day as the Raumdeuter (Space Interpreter) looks to extend his extraordinary goal-scoring record in major tournaments.
Conte will surely realise that his midfield trio could be overrun by the Germans and may sit deep to counter the effects of a German onslaught. Italy could be set up to soak up German pressure for 90 minutes and beyond.
Germany will be aware of the fact that in the course of this tournament the Italians have made the seamless transition from Catenaccio to fast-paced counter-attacking, and will have to watch out for the full-backs running from the deep, Di Sciglio and Florenzi.
The Germans are expected to go in with the same line-up from last time and in what could be a fascinating battle of attack versus defence, the Italian strike-force of Eder and Graziano Pelle might be left high up the pitch, waiting for scraps to come their way.
This match is balanced on a knife-edge and could swing either way. The results of this winner-takes-all could have major ramifications on the tournament, with the winner likely to face hosts France in the semis. (Of course, Iceland has other ideas.) Germany have their best chance to finally get the Italian monkey off their shoulders, but punters will think again. No one will be more wary of the Azzurri than Loew.