The fault lines are already showing after the completion of the two of the five phases of polling in Bihar. Among the masses and the political classes, the biggest question in the midst of the crucial state assembly election is this: has the electoral tussle between Narendra Modi’s National Democratic Alliance and Nitish Kumar’s Mahajot become a contest between the backward and forward castes?
The wedge was apparent on October 16, the day of the second phase of balloting, in the Bharatiya Janta Party’s election war room in Patna as Union minister and Lok Janshakti Party leader Ram Vilas Paswan flared up at the senior coalition partner.
According to a BJP leader at the scene, an incensed Paswan blamed the saffron party’s central leadership for creating a mess by ignoring the National Democratic Alliance’s backward and local faces during the campaign. At the same time, he referred to the loss of support among the backward and Dalit voters due to Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat’s remarks favouring a review of the country’s reservation policy.
“Almost the entire local leadership of the BJP was present in the war room, but no one tried to counter Paswanji,” the BJP leader said. “He was worried over Bhagawatji’s remarks as well as the weaknesses in our campaign strategy. We are equally concerned about these developments but it is too early to say that there is polarisation of backward castes, Dalits and minorities on the ground.”
Big-Brother attitude
Leaders of the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, another member of the BJP-led NDA, confirmed the unhappiness the BJP’s overall campaign strategy and its big-brother attitude in ticket distribution. “The message that went out has given our opponents an opportunity to instil fear in the minds of voters of backward castes,” an RLSP leader said.
The panic in the National Democratic Alliance is not without basis.
In the Lok Sabha elections last year, the NDA performed unexpectedly well, thanks to the ballots of the backward castes.
A large section of the Other Backward Classes, including the majority of Kushwahas (the core vote base of the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party) and a big chunk of Yadavs (the core voters of Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal), reportedly shifted to the NDA in 2014. Support for the saffron party’s alliance also came from some extremely backward classes (the lower strata of the OBCs). Furthermore, among Dalits, the Paswans voted en bloc for the NDA in the general election.
Those cracks in the backward castes seems to have nearly disappeared in the period of over a year, with the majority of them appearing to prefer Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Mahajot in the assembly election. Almost as a counterpoise, most of the upper caste voters are aggressively backing Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his NDA.
On the ground, the caste fault lines has stoked debates and speculation among the ordinary voters. The divide on the issue of political preference is so widespread that it minimises the chances of finding a voter from a backward caste pledging support to the NDA or one from an upper caste swearing to go against Modi. This was true throughout this reporter’s travels through the districts of Samastipur, Begusarai, Jehanabad, Gaya, Barh, Mokama, Vaishali, Muzaffarpur, Darbhanga and Supaul.
Predicable divisions
In terms of numbers, this divide does not auger well for Modi. Upper castes – Brahmin, Bhumihar, Kayastha and Rajput – constitute a mere 16% of the state’s total population. The rest is made up by Dalits, minorities and backward castes.
Of course, there are exceptions in political loyalties, but they are generally on predictable lines. Most pro-Modi voices among Dalits belong to Paswan caste, the Lok Janshakti Party’s core vote base that constitutes about 4% of the total population. The Musahar caste, to which BJP ally Jitan Ram Manjhi belongs, and the Kushwaha or Koeri caste, the voter base of the RLSP, form just 2% and 4% of the population, respectively. And even among Musahars and Kushwahas, Nitish Kumar appears to be a bigger attraction than Modi.
“Part of the reason why Kushwahas and other backward castes are not totally with us is insecurity caused by Bhagwat’s remarks on reviewing reservation,” said the RLSP leader. “Even the distribution of tickets, which was done at the behest of the BJP leadership, was very lopsided, and it gave a very big share to the upper castes. This does not seem to have gone down well among our supporters.”
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The wedge was apparent on October 16, the day of the second phase of balloting, in the Bharatiya Janta Party’s election war room in Patna as Union minister and Lok Janshakti Party leader Ram Vilas Paswan flared up at the senior coalition partner.
According to a BJP leader at the scene, an incensed Paswan blamed the saffron party’s central leadership for creating a mess by ignoring the National Democratic Alliance’s backward and local faces during the campaign. At the same time, he referred to the loss of support among the backward and Dalit voters due to Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat’s remarks favouring a review of the country’s reservation policy.
“Almost the entire local leadership of the BJP was present in the war room, but no one tried to counter Paswanji,” the BJP leader said. “He was worried over Bhagawatji’s remarks as well as the weaknesses in our campaign strategy. We are equally concerned about these developments but it is too early to say that there is polarisation of backward castes, Dalits and minorities on the ground.”
Big-Brother attitude
Leaders of the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, another member of the BJP-led NDA, confirmed the unhappiness the BJP’s overall campaign strategy and its big-brother attitude in ticket distribution. “The message that went out has given our opponents an opportunity to instil fear in the minds of voters of backward castes,” an RLSP leader said.
The panic in the National Democratic Alliance is not without basis.
In the Lok Sabha elections last year, the NDA performed unexpectedly well, thanks to the ballots of the backward castes.
A large section of the Other Backward Classes, including the majority of Kushwahas (the core vote base of the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party) and a big chunk of Yadavs (the core voters of Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal), reportedly shifted to the NDA in 2014. Support for the saffron party’s alliance also came from some extremely backward classes (the lower strata of the OBCs). Furthermore, among Dalits, the Paswans voted en bloc for the NDA in the general election.
Those cracks in the backward castes seems to have nearly disappeared in the period of over a year, with the majority of them appearing to prefer Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Mahajot in the assembly election. Almost as a counterpoise, most of the upper caste voters are aggressively backing Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his NDA.
On the ground, the caste fault lines has stoked debates and speculation among the ordinary voters. The divide on the issue of political preference is so widespread that it minimises the chances of finding a voter from a backward caste pledging support to the NDA or one from an upper caste swearing to go against Modi. This was true throughout this reporter’s travels through the districts of Samastipur, Begusarai, Jehanabad, Gaya, Barh, Mokama, Vaishali, Muzaffarpur, Darbhanga and Supaul.
Predicable divisions
In terms of numbers, this divide does not auger well for Modi. Upper castes – Brahmin, Bhumihar, Kayastha and Rajput – constitute a mere 16% of the state’s total population. The rest is made up by Dalits, minorities and backward castes.
Of course, there are exceptions in political loyalties, but they are generally on predictable lines. Most pro-Modi voices among Dalits belong to Paswan caste, the Lok Janshakti Party’s core vote base that constitutes about 4% of the total population. The Musahar caste, to which BJP ally Jitan Ram Manjhi belongs, and the Kushwaha or Koeri caste, the voter base of the RLSP, form just 2% and 4% of the population, respectively. And even among Musahars and Kushwahas, Nitish Kumar appears to be a bigger attraction than Modi.
“Part of the reason why Kushwahas and other backward castes are not totally with us is insecurity caused by Bhagwat’s remarks on reviewing reservation,” said the RLSP leader. “Even the distribution of tickets, which was done at the behest of the BJP leadership, was very lopsided, and it gave a very big share to the upper castes. This does not seem to have gone down well among our supporters.”