Dr.Nishat Ahmad

Nature has published an article by Chinese authors stating that the Antibody last only for 2-3 months in asymptomatic as well as symptomatic recovered cases. After which it diminishes from the circulation ,opening another big dilemma for immuno-protection and concept of Immunity passport. If this research holds reinfection is a real possibility. If the direct exposure of the virus is unable to protect for longer duration, the role of vaccine is going to be a big interrogation. The Herd immunity for COVID19 is the 55% of the population according to NIH and CDC. For a nation like India that means 70 crores of people will be infected to achieve Herd Immunity. India can't afford this staggering infection as almost 20% of its population is suffering from Diabetes, Cardiovascular diseases and cancer . India will become a grave yard of COVID victims to attain the herd immunity. A quick policy change to chase the virus and break the chain of spread will address the problem at least for now. Citizen's response is going to be a key afterwards in negating the second wave.

Stephen Dougherty

A herd immunity strategy is neither necessary nor particularly dangerous. We now know that this Coronavirus is no more deadly than seasonal flu, and far less of a threat to children. In March, the WHO gave a 3.4% CFR, which they erroneously compared with seasonal flu's IFR. Current estimates for the Coronavirus's IFR vary between 0.4% and 0.01% (Ioannidis, Gupta, CDC et al), very similar to the range for seasonal flu. The 3.4% figure was almost entirely a hospital CFR, so a better comparison would have been the hospital CFR for this year's flu season in the USA, (as of February 14)., which was 5.7%. Prof. Ferguson's modelling which underpins the lockdown strategy is discredited. Adapted for Sweden, it predicted there would be at least 84,000 deaths by now, if the govt did not lock down. The 22 June figure for Covid-19 linked deaths, (sad though it is) is 5,122. Out by a factor of 16. Researchers at Hokkaido University projected a possible total of 420,000 deaths for Japan if it did not lock down. Despite having the oldest population on earth, it has currently lost fewer than a thousand to the virus, and did not lock down. Also, since "clinical suspicion of a notifiable infection is all that's required" (UK gov), the death rates for Covid are hugely inflated. We cannot wait for a vaccine for a disease which, according to Public Health England is not a "High Consequence Infectious Disease". Lockdown kills. We must return to old normal now.


Well I'm not taking the vaccine so I favor this approach.