Luv Aggarwal is not an epidemeologist and nor are his statements based on epidemeology.India can technically reach its coronavirus peak when its recovery rate will cross 90% mark, the average benchmark across countries has been 75% based on the select countries peak data and recovery rate. Brazil reached its peak at a recovery rate of 69% however, that will not be the end of the story. In US, the peak has come twice. Analysis of positivity rate and test per million indicates that in the states like Maharashtra, Telangana, Bihar, and West Bengal the positivity rate is significantly high but tests per million are quite less. This indicates that in these states the peak has not yet come and the situation will remain grave till the number of tests increase significantly.
One of the inputs you need in these models to understand how it’s going to move over time is having good and consistent data. Our problem is that we are a very large country and, therefore, even though we scaled up the testing to over one lakh per day, it looks nothing for a country like India.India is likely to see a wave of peaks across the country instead of one single high, with the virus spreading at a different pace in states,the concept of a national peak is nebulous. Unwritten rule of a pandemic is that a peak will happen and numbers will come down eventually.
India becomes fastest growing corona cases instead of fastest growing economy. Thanks for unplanned lockdown and dysfunctional rulers in time.
This government never listens to experts. First, it was unplanned demonisation and now unplanned lockdown.