Afghanistan is going to the polls today, two days before India does. The mood in the country is quite similar to the feelings in India at the moment: there's anger against poverty, corruption and poor governance. However, the stakes are significantly higher as Afghans make a decision about who will be able to form a government capable of surviving the Taliban threat.
There's a lot a stake. Washington is ending its 13-year-long war and NATO troops will leave the country by November. This military withdrawal, one of President Barack Obama’s campaign promises, will leave Afghanistan with a huge security vacuum. Many nations, including India, have warned that the Taliban may use this opportunity to reassert its dominance over the country.
On Friday afternoon, one journalist was killed and another wounded in gunfire in Khost. This came days after big attacks on hotels and guesthouses in Kabul frequented by Westerners and locals alike. With Afghanistan on the cusp of elections, cases of violence have increased many fold. In fact, 2013 saw the country's largest number of fatalities since 2010.
The pre-election mood in Afghanistan, according to media reports, is positive but edgy. The Afghans seem determined to elect a leader who will bring about economic and political progress in a desperately poor country. “Fraud, insecurity, enthusiasm, defiance, fear– reflecting wide range of moods,” tweeted Martine van Bijlert of the Afghanistan Analysts Network.
For the most part, Afghans seem positive. Pictures of women in burkas attending political rallies in remote parts of the country, despite death threats from the Taliban, offer a glimpse of the people braving adversarial conditions to show support for their political choices.
The two top presidential candidates, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and Abdullah Abdullah are in a neck-to-neck race at the moment, with the former leading by just 4 per cent, according to independent research. Ahmadzai is US educated, has worked at the World Bank and has strong family history of politics in the country. Abdullah, a Tajik-Pashtun eye-surgeon, was sacked as a cabinet minister. He put himself at odds with current president Hamid Karzai, after claiming that the 2006 elections were fraudulent. Irrespective of who wins, India and Pakistan are two relations the new leader will have to address immediately. In a pre-poll interview, Abdullah offered a diplomatic stance, saying “It is for Afghanistan and India to decide what their relationship should be like. It is for Afghanistan and Pakistan to decide what their relationship should be like.”
Intelligence agencies working in the country, both domestic and foreign, have warned that the country is in dire need of a strengthened and well-equipped police and military force. Areas such as southern Afghanistan, which NATO forces gained workable control over after years of military operations and large personnel losses, are going to be left highly vulnerable, making the region an easy target for the Taliban to assert control over again.
Kabul and Washington have also been at loggerheads over a deal on how much of a military presence the US will have post 2014, and this has delayed the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement between the two countries. New Delhi has let it be known that it supports the signing of the BSA, although it did not put pressure on Karzai and said that it did not wish to be seen as “prescriptive, intrusive or judgemental.”
An Afghanistan back under Taliban rule is a nightmare scenario for India, as it could become a playground for Islamist elements and come under the influence of Pakistan’s notorious military establishment (Pakistan’s ISI was reportedly behind the 2008 attack on India’s embassy in Kabul). New Delhi has been working on building its rapport with Afghanistan for a long time, and has spent billions of dollars on developmental projects in the country under the friendship of Karzai. In fact, India has fully funded the construction of the country’s new parliament in Kabul.
However, one major area where India has balked is on Kabul’s repeated requests to provide military assistance to the country. During one of his many visits to India, Karzai handed New Delhi a military wish list, with equipment he deemed crucial for the security of Afghanistan. India has not heeded to his requests, and only provided military personnel training and some other non-lethal equipment. Reasons for this are varied, including fear of India-marked weapons falling in the hands of insurgents. India is also afraid of losing credibility amongst the Afghans as a developmental partner for Kabul and being perceived as just another foreign force with military presence in the country.
Now, New Delhi is considering providing some military assistance, including that of lethal military weapons, to Afghanistan via the help of Moscow. Although the decision is yet to be taken, India and Russia have held talks in December on the possibility of India providing financial assistance for equipment that would be supplied by Russia to Kabul. This alone highlights the fact that South Block is worried about the security vacuum available to insurgents if Kabul and Washington fail to sign a solid BSA, ensuring critical US military presence in the country.
After such heavy economic and diplomatic investment in Afghanistan, whose stability is absolutely crucial to India’s own strategic security, New Delhi will be hoping for a flawless transfer of power in Kabul without bloodshed. India stands at a position where it will by default have a good working relation with the new administration. It has to manage to uphold its presence in a country crucial to the South Asian security situation.
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There's a lot a stake. Washington is ending its 13-year-long war and NATO troops will leave the country by November. This military withdrawal, one of President Barack Obama’s campaign promises, will leave Afghanistan with a huge security vacuum. Many nations, including India, have warned that the Taliban may use this opportunity to reassert its dominance over the country.
On Friday afternoon, one journalist was killed and another wounded in gunfire in Khost. This came days after big attacks on hotels and guesthouses in Kabul frequented by Westerners and locals alike. With Afghanistan on the cusp of elections, cases of violence have increased many fold. In fact, 2013 saw the country's largest number of fatalities since 2010.
The pre-election mood in Afghanistan, according to media reports, is positive but edgy. The Afghans seem determined to elect a leader who will bring about economic and political progress in a desperately poor country. “Fraud, insecurity, enthusiasm, defiance, fear– reflecting wide range of moods,” tweeted Martine van Bijlert of the Afghanistan Analysts Network.
For the most part, Afghans seem positive. Pictures of women in burkas attending political rallies in remote parts of the country, despite death threats from the Taliban, offer a glimpse of the people braving adversarial conditions to show support for their political choices.
The two top presidential candidates, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and Abdullah Abdullah are in a neck-to-neck race at the moment, with the former leading by just 4 per cent, according to independent research. Ahmadzai is US educated, has worked at the World Bank and has strong family history of politics in the country. Abdullah, a Tajik-Pashtun eye-surgeon, was sacked as a cabinet minister. He put himself at odds with current president Hamid Karzai, after claiming that the 2006 elections were fraudulent. Irrespective of who wins, India and Pakistan are two relations the new leader will have to address immediately. In a pre-poll interview, Abdullah offered a diplomatic stance, saying “It is for Afghanistan and India to decide what their relationship should be like. It is for Afghanistan and Pakistan to decide what their relationship should be like.”
Intelligence agencies working in the country, both domestic and foreign, have warned that the country is in dire need of a strengthened and well-equipped police and military force. Areas such as southern Afghanistan, which NATO forces gained workable control over after years of military operations and large personnel losses, are going to be left highly vulnerable, making the region an easy target for the Taliban to assert control over again.
Kabul and Washington have also been at loggerheads over a deal on how much of a military presence the US will have post 2014, and this has delayed the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement between the two countries. New Delhi has let it be known that it supports the signing of the BSA, although it did not put pressure on Karzai and said that it did not wish to be seen as “prescriptive, intrusive or judgemental.”
An Afghanistan back under Taliban rule is a nightmare scenario for India, as it could become a playground for Islamist elements and come under the influence of Pakistan’s notorious military establishment (Pakistan’s ISI was reportedly behind the 2008 attack on India’s embassy in Kabul). New Delhi has been working on building its rapport with Afghanistan for a long time, and has spent billions of dollars on developmental projects in the country under the friendship of Karzai. In fact, India has fully funded the construction of the country’s new parliament in Kabul.
However, one major area where India has balked is on Kabul’s repeated requests to provide military assistance to the country. During one of his many visits to India, Karzai handed New Delhi a military wish list, with equipment he deemed crucial for the security of Afghanistan. India has not heeded to his requests, and only provided military personnel training and some other non-lethal equipment. Reasons for this are varied, including fear of India-marked weapons falling in the hands of insurgents. India is also afraid of losing credibility amongst the Afghans as a developmental partner for Kabul and being perceived as just another foreign force with military presence in the country.
Now, New Delhi is considering providing some military assistance, including that of lethal military weapons, to Afghanistan via the help of Moscow. Although the decision is yet to be taken, India and Russia have held talks in December on the possibility of India providing financial assistance for equipment that would be supplied by Russia to Kabul. This alone highlights the fact that South Block is worried about the security vacuum available to insurgents if Kabul and Washington fail to sign a solid BSA, ensuring critical US military presence in the country.
After such heavy economic and diplomatic investment in Afghanistan, whose stability is absolutely crucial to India’s own strategic security, New Delhi will be hoping for a flawless transfer of power in Kabul without bloodshed. India stands at a position where it will by default have a good working relation with the new administration. It has to manage to uphold its presence in a country crucial to the South Asian security situation.