In December 2013, Harsh Vardhan, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s chief ministerial candidate in Delhi, turned down the invitation of the state's Lieutenant Governor to form the government. Vardhan said that the BJP did not have the minimum number of seats required to form the government and the party would not poach legislators from rival parties.
The Aam Aadmi Party went on to form the government. But since it resigned in February after failing to table a Jan Lokpal bill aimed at curbing corruption, the 70-member Delhi assembly has been in a state of suspended animation. The territory is currently being administered by the Lieutenant Governor.
But on Friday, news reports suggested that Lieutenant Govenor Najeeb Jung had asked President Pranab Mukherjee to give BJP the opportunity to form a government in the state. Later in the day, Delhi BJP president Satish Upadhyay, Home Minister Rajnath Singh, Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari and other senior BJP leaders held an emergency meeting to discuss this possibility.
BJP won 31 seats in the December state election. That number has now fallen to 28, as three party legislators – Harsh Vardhan, Ramesh Bidhuri and Pervesh Verma – resigned from the assembly after they were elected to Lok Sabha.
So why is the party willing to consider forming a government now?
1) Altered political climate
The political situation has changed since the Delhi assembly election. In December, before the Lok Sabha elections had been held, the BJP was hammering away at the Congress Party for its alleged corruption and was keen to project itself as the model of probity. In the circumstances, the BJP was unwilling to tarnish its image by playing the dirty game of trying to win over opposition MLAs.
But political analysts say that there are now new factors at play. “The BJP coming in at the centre with a full majority can provide support to a minority state government,” said Shiv Viswanathan. “It is a calculated risk that is likely to work for the BJP. Party chief Amit Shah cleverly instigated this move as he knows that the party now has the resources to back their state government.”
The party also believes that having one more state in its control could have some bearing on assembly elections being held in other states later.
2) The Local MLAs
Many of the BJP’s victorious MLAs were disgruntled at the decision to shun power. As a result, Rambir Singh Biduri, the MLA from Badarpur, and 10 other legislators have spent the past months trying to persuade the party leadership to form a government.
Biduri claimed in July that seven Aam Aadmi Party MLAs had approached him, asking to be allowed to join the BJP. This would have given the BJP the majority it needed to form the government. Biduri justified this move at horse-trading by saying that the AAP MLAs wanted to join BJP voluntarily because they were upset with their party and its leader, Arvind Kejriwal.
“It is true that the some MLAs in Delhi wanted the party to form the government as they do not want that unnecessary election expenses all over again,” said Satish Upadhyay, president of the Delhi BJP. “However, we haven't been invited to by the Lieutenant Governor yet. If we do, we will consider it critically.”
3) Return of AAP?
It may have been decimated during the Lok Sabha polls, but the Aam Aadmi Party still has a great deal of ground support in Delhi. The party won 28 of 70 seats in Delhi during the assembly elections in December – the first polls it contested – with a vote share of 29%.
In the Lok Sabha polls, despite the criticism it faced for resigning from the Delhi government, it increased its vote share to 33% in the state, according to Election Commission of India data.
The BJP is worried that if fresh elections are held for the Delhi assembly, the results could go either way. Political observers say the AAP retains its popularity in slums and resettlement areas and weaned away a part of the minority vote from Congress. This could be a decisive factor if Delhi goes to polls again.
“These backdoor talks and movements only mean that the BJP is scared to go against the Aam Aadmi Party in a re-election,” said senior AAP leader Ashutosh. “They fear they will lose. They prefer losing their credibility than the kursi [seat].”
4) Administration in ruins
Since Arvind Kejriwal quit as the chief minister of Delhi in February, development projects in the state have halted. This is among the problems that the Lieutenant Governor of Delhi noted in his letter to the President, emphasising that the state needs a functional government immediately.
BJP officials believe that they can restore a sense of order even if they form a minority government. This is because they will have greater access to the resources of the BJP-run central government.
The way forward
The BJP needs 35 MLAs to prove its majority in the 69-member assembly (the speaker of the house, the 70th member, only needs to vote in a tie). So what’s the best way to go about this? It could take a cue from the Congress.
In 1998, Vajpayee’s National Democratic Alliance government lost a no-confidence motion in the Lok Sabha by one vote. Though Giridhar Gamang had gone on to become Orissa chief minister, the Congress brought him back to vote the BJP government out of power because he had not yet resigned from his parliamentary seat.
In the current Delhi house, Union Health Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan, along with MP from south Delhi constituency Ramesh Bidhuri and Parvesh Verma, MP from west Delhi, are yet to resign from their respective Assembly seats and are still eligible to vote.
So technically, the BJP needs only three more MLAs. There are indications that former AAP MLA Vinod Kumar Binny and independent legislators Rambir Shoukeen and Shoaib Iqbal will support the BJP government. That would take the BJP's numbers to 35 and allow it to form the government.
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The Aam Aadmi Party went on to form the government. But since it resigned in February after failing to table a Jan Lokpal bill aimed at curbing corruption, the 70-member Delhi assembly has been in a state of suspended animation. The territory is currently being administered by the Lieutenant Governor.
But on Friday, news reports suggested that Lieutenant Govenor Najeeb Jung had asked President Pranab Mukherjee to give BJP the opportunity to form a government in the state. Later in the day, Delhi BJP president Satish Upadhyay, Home Minister Rajnath Singh, Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari and other senior BJP leaders held an emergency meeting to discuss this possibility.
BJP won 31 seats in the December state election. That number has now fallen to 28, as three party legislators – Harsh Vardhan, Ramesh Bidhuri and Pervesh Verma – resigned from the assembly after they were elected to Lok Sabha.
So why is the party willing to consider forming a government now?
1) Altered political climate
The political situation has changed since the Delhi assembly election. In December, before the Lok Sabha elections had been held, the BJP was hammering away at the Congress Party for its alleged corruption and was keen to project itself as the model of probity. In the circumstances, the BJP was unwilling to tarnish its image by playing the dirty game of trying to win over opposition MLAs.
But political analysts say that there are now new factors at play. “The BJP coming in at the centre with a full majority can provide support to a minority state government,” said Shiv Viswanathan. “It is a calculated risk that is likely to work for the BJP. Party chief Amit Shah cleverly instigated this move as he knows that the party now has the resources to back their state government.”
The party also believes that having one more state in its control could have some bearing on assembly elections being held in other states later.
2) The Local MLAs
Many of the BJP’s victorious MLAs were disgruntled at the decision to shun power. As a result, Rambir Singh Biduri, the MLA from Badarpur, and 10 other legislators have spent the past months trying to persuade the party leadership to form a government.
Biduri claimed in July that seven Aam Aadmi Party MLAs had approached him, asking to be allowed to join the BJP. This would have given the BJP the majority it needed to form the government. Biduri justified this move at horse-trading by saying that the AAP MLAs wanted to join BJP voluntarily because they were upset with their party and its leader, Arvind Kejriwal.
“It is true that the some MLAs in Delhi wanted the party to form the government as they do not want that unnecessary election expenses all over again,” said Satish Upadhyay, president of the Delhi BJP. “However, we haven't been invited to by the Lieutenant Governor yet. If we do, we will consider it critically.”
3) Return of AAP?
It may have been decimated during the Lok Sabha polls, but the Aam Aadmi Party still has a great deal of ground support in Delhi. The party won 28 of 70 seats in Delhi during the assembly elections in December – the first polls it contested – with a vote share of 29%.
In the Lok Sabha polls, despite the criticism it faced for resigning from the Delhi government, it increased its vote share to 33% in the state, according to Election Commission of India data.
The BJP is worried that if fresh elections are held for the Delhi assembly, the results could go either way. Political observers say the AAP retains its popularity in slums and resettlement areas and weaned away a part of the minority vote from Congress. This could be a decisive factor if Delhi goes to polls again.
“These backdoor talks and movements only mean that the BJP is scared to go against the Aam Aadmi Party in a re-election,” said senior AAP leader Ashutosh. “They fear they will lose. They prefer losing their credibility than the kursi [seat].”
4) Administration in ruins
Since Arvind Kejriwal quit as the chief minister of Delhi in February, development projects in the state have halted. This is among the problems that the Lieutenant Governor of Delhi noted in his letter to the President, emphasising that the state needs a functional government immediately.
BJP officials believe that they can restore a sense of order even if they form a minority government. This is because they will have greater access to the resources of the BJP-run central government.
The way forward
The BJP needs 35 MLAs to prove its majority in the 69-member assembly (the speaker of the house, the 70th member, only needs to vote in a tie). So what’s the best way to go about this? It could take a cue from the Congress.
In 1998, Vajpayee’s National Democratic Alliance government lost a no-confidence motion in the Lok Sabha by one vote. Though Giridhar Gamang had gone on to become Orissa chief minister, the Congress brought him back to vote the BJP government out of power because he had not yet resigned from his parliamentary seat.
In the current Delhi house, Union Health Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan, along with MP from south Delhi constituency Ramesh Bidhuri and Parvesh Verma, MP from west Delhi, are yet to resign from their respective Assembly seats and are still eligible to vote.
So technically, the BJP needs only three more MLAs. There are indications that former AAP MLA Vinod Kumar Binny and independent legislators Rambir Shoukeen and Shoaib Iqbal will support the BJP government. That would take the BJP's numbers to 35 and allow it to form the government.