The power-sharing deal reached on Sunday between Afghanistan’s rival presidential candidates is good news for India. The deal reawakens hope that Afghanistan will remain stable, even after the US reduces the presence of its forces in the country at the end of the year. India has long maintained that a peaceful Afghanistan is important for the region.
Within hours of Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and Abdullah Abdullah agreeing to form a national unity government, Ghani was declared president by an independent election commission. Abdullah will be appointed chief executive officer and will act like a prime minister. The deal also calls for a Loya Jirga, or assembly of tribal elders, to be convened within two years to amend the Constitution to incorporate the post of a prime minister.
New Delhi had the advantage of establishing close ties with Abdullah since the nineties, when India recognised the Northern Alliance Government in which he was the foreign minister. His family spent several years living in Delhi.
Indian interests
In the last 12 years, India has invested around $2 billion in development assistance programmes, and is the first country with which Afghanistan signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement in 2011. India started to pump assistance into Afghanistan under the Vajpayee government in 2002. The aid expanded during the United Progressive Alliance regime.
The new National Democratic Alliance government reiterated India’s commitment to Afghanistan when External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj visited Kabul in September. “India is prepared to do whatever is possible, within our capacities and our means to work with the Afghan Government and its peoples,” she said.
The agreement between Ghani and Abdullah followed weeks of deadlock. Preliminary election results had given Ghani 56.44% of the vote and Abdullah 43.56%, amidst allegations of large-scale fraud. Many feared that a civil war would break out again.
Although a national government averts an immediate confrontation and promises equitable representation to all factions in a country largely divided on ethnic lines, there are apprehensions that it might meet a fate similar to the Peshawar Accord of 1992. Under that accord, various political parties and warlords struck an agreement to share power, with the notable exception of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezb-e Islami.
But rifts soon emerged in the coalition as rival warlords fought for power on the streets of Kabul, the memory of which still haunt common Afghans. Many Afghans believe that Ghani and Abdullah both lack the talent that former president Hamid Karzi displayed for maneuvering between the country’s antagonistic factions.
Dealing with the Taliban
Besides, the two candidates have significant differences over how to deal with Taliban: Ghani supports negotiations, but Abdullah is less optimistic about talks. So even after his retirement, Karzai may still have a significant role to play.
However, the last decade has seen an enormous transformation in Afghanistan, led by the rise of a new educated middle class, a vibrant civil society and press. The fact that the rivals were involved in hectic negotiations, even after Abdullah at one stage threatened to form a parallel government, can be attributed to the pressure from this class, who are tired of decades of conflict.
For the international community, the power-sharing agreement allows it to proceed with its security plan for Afghanistan. Outgoing President Hamid Karzai had refused to sign a Bilateral Security Agreement with the US that Washington considered essential if it was to station a small number of NATO troops in Afghanistan after 2014 and to maintain funding. Both Ghani, a former World Bank Employee, and Abdullah, a doctor by practice, have promised to sign the agreement, reducing friction with Washington.
M Reyaz is a Delhi-based journalist and research scholar on Central Asia who was in Afghanistan during the presidential campaign. His Twitter handle is @journalistreyaz.
We welcome your comments at
letters@scroll.in.
Within hours of Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and Abdullah Abdullah agreeing to form a national unity government, Ghani was declared president by an independent election commission. Abdullah will be appointed chief executive officer and will act like a prime minister. The deal also calls for a Loya Jirga, or assembly of tribal elders, to be convened within two years to amend the Constitution to incorporate the post of a prime minister.
New Delhi had the advantage of establishing close ties with Abdullah since the nineties, when India recognised the Northern Alliance Government in which he was the foreign minister. His family spent several years living in Delhi.
Indian interests
In the last 12 years, India has invested around $2 billion in development assistance programmes, and is the first country with which Afghanistan signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement in 2011. India started to pump assistance into Afghanistan under the Vajpayee government in 2002. The aid expanded during the United Progressive Alliance regime.
The new National Democratic Alliance government reiterated India’s commitment to Afghanistan when External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj visited Kabul in September. “India is prepared to do whatever is possible, within our capacities and our means to work with the Afghan Government and its peoples,” she said.
The agreement between Ghani and Abdullah followed weeks of deadlock. Preliminary election results had given Ghani 56.44% of the vote and Abdullah 43.56%, amidst allegations of large-scale fraud. Many feared that a civil war would break out again.
Although a national government averts an immediate confrontation and promises equitable representation to all factions in a country largely divided on ethnic lines, there are apprehensions that it might meet a fate similar to the Peshawar Accord of 1992. Under that accord, various political parties and warlords struck an agreement to share power, with the notable exception of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezb-e Islami.
But rifts soon emerged in the coalition as rival warlords fought for power on the streets of Kabul, the memory of which still haunt common Afghans. Many Afghans believe that Ghani and Abdullah both lack the talent that former president Hamid Karzi displayed for maneuvering between the country’s antagonistic factions.
Dealing with the Taliban
Besides, the two candidates have significant differences over how to deal with Taliban: Ghani supports negotiations, but Abdullah is less optimistic about talks. So even after his retirement, Karzai may still have a significant role to play.
However, the last decade has seen an enormous transformation in Afghanistan, led by the rise of a new educated middle class, a vibrant civil society and press. The fact that the rivals were involved in hectic negotiations, even after Abdullah at one stage threatened to form a parallel government, can be attributed to the pressure from this class, who are tired of decades of conflict.
For the international community, the power-sharing agreement allows it to proceed with its security plan for Afghanistan. Outgoing President Hamid Karzai had refused to sign a Bilateral Security Agreement with the US that Washington considered essential if it was to station a small number of NATO troops in Afghanistan after 2014 and to maintain funding. Both Ghani, a former World Bank Employee, and Abdullah, a doctor by practice, have promised to sign the agreement, reducing friction with Washington.
M Reyaz is a Delhi-based journalist and research scholar on Central Asia who was in Afghanistan during the presidential campaign. His Twitter handle is @journalistreyaz.