Should the Bharatiya Janata Party be delighted about its showing in the Maharashtra assembly elections? In television interviews, party leaders are displaying an air of jubilation, but the fact is that there is a deep sense of dismay given that it’s far from the half-way mark in the 288-member assembly.
The BJP expected an absolute majority. Its advertisements asked the voters for that. Its leaders claimed that it would secure around 160 seats. But with indications that it is leading in 120 seats at the time of writing, it’s clear that the only way the BJP can form the government is by seeking support from old ally Shiv Sena or from Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party.
So is this an indicator that the Narendra Modi wave is on the wane in Maharashtra? That the BJP won over a hundred seats is thanks essentially to the Modi magic. The party may be seen as non-controversial in the state, but it has not put up any spectacular showing of governance the last time it was in power, in the mid 1990s.
After the passing of Gopinath Munde in a car accident in June, there is no BJP leader who has the mass-level pan-Maharashtra charisma of, say, Sharad Pawar. It need Modi to rev up sentiments, which he did. That this did not result in a majority is an indicator that the euphoria over Modi has dipped or the voters who had given him a thumbs up in the Lok Sabha polls have been disappointed with the BJP's four-odd months of governance at the centre.
NCP, Congress showing
It’s also interesting to note that the NCP and Congress haven’t been decimated as many expected them to. In fact had they fought the elections together, they could have put up a formidable opposition despite the anti-incumbency factor and the perception that they ran an inefficient regime. By 3.30pm, the Congress was leading or had won 44 seats, with the NCP's figure at 42.
Will the Sena back a BJP government? It seems certain that it will. Though it refuse to ally with the BJP to fight the Maharashtra elections, It continues to be part of the National Democratic Alliance at the centre. The Sena’s Anant Geete is still the heavy industries minister in the Modi cabinet.
However, the terms of engagement aren’t going to be easy. The BJP will need a sizeable 25 seats to cross the 145-seat mark, and that’s enough for the Sena to expect more than a significant pound of flesh. The Sena seems likely to win a good 60 or so seats and will expect some respect.
The Sena may want goodies in the form of more ministerial berths in the centre and perhaps even a commitment to a sharing the chief ministerial position for the second part of the five-year term.
Will a hung verdict mean an unstable government in Mumbai? It’s perhaps too early to pass any judgments on that.
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The BJP expected an absolute majority. Its advertisements asked the voters for that. Its leaders claimed that it would secure around 160 seats. But with indications that it is leading in 120 seats at the time of writing, it’s clear that the only way the BJP can form the government is by seeking support from old ally Shiv Sena or from Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party.
So is this an indicator that the Narendra Modi wave is on the wane in Maharashtra? That the BJP won over a hundred seats is thanks essentially to the Modi magic. The party may be seen as non-controversial in the state, but it has not put up any spectacular showing of governance the last time it was in power, in the mid 1990s.
After the passing of Gopinath Munde in a car accident in June, there is no BJP leader who has the mass-level pan-Maharashtra charisma of, say, Sharad Pawar. It need Modi to rev up sentiments, which he did. That this did not result in a majority is an indicator that the euphoria over Modi has dipped or the voters who had given him a thumbs up in the Lok Sabha polls have been disappointed with the BJP's four-odd months of governance at the centre.
NCP, Congress showing
It’s also interesting to note that the NCP and Congress haven’t been decimated as many expected them to. In fact had they fought the elections together, they could have put up a formidable opposition despite the anti-incumbency factor and the perception that they ran an inefficient regime. By 3.30pm, the Congress was leading or had won 44 seats, with the NCP's figure at 42.
Will the Sena back a BJP government? It seems certain that it will. Though it refuse to ally with the BJP to fight the Maharashtra elections, It continues to be part of the National Democratic Alliance at the centre. The Sena’s Anant Geete is still the heavy industries minister in the Modi cabinet.
However, the terms of engagement aren’t going to be easy. The BJP will need a sizeable 25 seats to cross the 145-seat mark, and that’s enough for the Sena to expect more than a significant pound of flesh. The Sena seems likely to win a good 60 or so seats and will expect some respect.
The Sena may want goodies in the form of more ministerial berths in the centre and perhaps even a commitment to a sharing the chief ministerial position for the second part of the five-year term.
Will a hung verdict mean an unstable government in Mumbai? It’s perhaps too early to pass any judgments on that.