It was a foregone conclusion that Bharatiya Janata Party chief minister-designate Devendra Fadnavis would win the no-trust vote in the Maharashtra assembly on Wednesday, even though it had only 122 seats in a 288-member house. With the Shiv Sena holding only 63 seats, Congress 42 and Nationalist Congress Party 41, it was clear the BJP would sail through with the support of the NCP even if the Sena didn’t agree to join the government.
Since the election results were declared last month, the former alliance partners have been in intense discussions about renewing their ties. But the BJP insists that their inability to reach an agreement is the result of the Sena making unreasonable demands. This didn't seem to matter during Wednesday's trust vote, because the NCP had already declared its unconditional support for the BJP.
However, the events that played out in the assembly on Wednesday were part of a carefully planned strategy to protect the BJP from getting a confirmed Yes or No from the Sena and the NCP. It happened by a voice vote even though the conventional wisdom would insist on a division or physical voting for something as important as a no-confidence motion. Newly elected speaker Haribhau Bagde pushed through the voice vote when the Sena MLAs had walked out in protest.
Congress MLAs suspended
In the melee that followed, Congress and Sena MLAs protested and some legislators reportedly jostled the Governor. This led to five Congress MLA being suspended for two years, a decision once again taken by a voice vote. However, a multi-party committee will deliberate on the issue, so the suspension could well be revoked.
So will the Sena join the BJP? Despite several political pundits suggesting that it won’t, the parties can’t do without each other. For the ruling party to take NCP support would be suicidal After all, the BJP has said that NCP stands for Nationalist Corrupt Party and it has strongly criticised the various scams NCP ministers are embroiled in. By being seen in cahoots with the NCP, the BJP’s national anti-corruption plank would be severely weakened. This may not impact the electoral process in Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir and in Delhi, but in the longer run, the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party and television news anchors would embarrass the Narendra Modi regime hugely.
Road to irrelevance
For the Sena, out of power for 15 years, failing to compromise and join the government could be a step on the road to rendering itself irrelevant after five years. National parties like the BJP and Congress would be only too happy to see regional powers dwindling and the Sena can ill-afford that.
But there’s more to this than seat-sharing. The BJP and Sena had been allies for 25 years, until they fell out just before October’s assembly elections. Though the Sena always played big brother, it has never BJP’s side through these years through its worst controversies. For instance, it backed Modi after the Gujarat riots. So dumping the Sena for political gains is being viewed by many as uncharitable.
Many seniors in the BJP also acknowledge this. Having shown the Sena its place by refusing to cow down to its bravado, the BJP veterans now want to let the party in. Will the new dispensation oblige?
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Since the election results were declared last month, the former alliance partners have been in intense discussions about renewing their ties. But the BJP insists that their inability to reach an agreement is the result of the Sena making unreasonable demands. This didn't seem to matter during Wednesday's trust vote, because the NCP had already declared its unconditional support for the BJP.
However, the events that played out in the assembly on Wednesday were part of a carefully planned strategy to protect the BJP from getting a confirmed Yes or No from the Sena and the NCP. It happened by a voice vote even though the conventional wisdom would insist on a division or physical voting for something as important as a no-confidence motion. Newly elected speaker Haribhau Bagde pushed through the voice vote when the Sena MLAs had walked out in protest.
Congress MLAs suspended
In the melee that followed, Congress and Sena MLAs protested and some legislators reportedly jostled the Governor. This led to five Congress MLA being suspended for two years, a decision once again taken by a voice vote. However, a multi-party committee will deliberate on the issue, so the suspension could well be revoked.
So will the Sena join the BJP? Despite several political pundits suggesting that it won’t, the parties can’t do without each other. For the ruling party to take NCP support would be suicidal After all, the BJP has said that NCP stands for Nationalist Corrupt Party and it has strongly criticised the various scams NCP ministers are embroiled in. By being seen in cahoots with the NCP, the BJP’s national anti-corruption plank would be severely weakened. This may not impact the electoral process in Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir and in Delhi, but in the longer run, the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party and television news anchors would embarrass the Narendra Modi regime hugely.
Road to irrelevance
For the Sena, out of power for 15 years, failing to compromise and join the government could be a step on the road to rendering itself irrelevant after five years. National parties like the BJP and Congress would be only too happy to see regional powers dwindling and the Sena can ill-afford that.
But there’s more to this than seat-sharing. The BJP and Sena had been allies for 25 years, until they fell out just before October’s assembly elections. Though the Sena always played big brother, it has never BJP’s side through these years through its worst controversies. For instance, it backed Modi after the Gujarat riots. So dumping the Sena for political gains is being viewed by many as uncharitable.
Many seniors in the BJP also acknowledge this. Having shown the Sena its place by refusing to cow down to its bravado, the BJP veterans now want to let the party in. Will the new dispensation oblige?