The carefully stitched together rainbow coalition built by the Bharatiya Janata Party in Tamil Nadu now looks like it is starting to fall apart. And the reason appears to be the same issue that has given headaches to other national parties: Sri Lanka.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s outreach, particularly in the neighbourhood, has been touted as a sign that he understands the need for India to be a regional leader before it can become a global one. But that has also meant New Delhi has been sending favourable signals to Sri Lanka, a country that the Centre believes has tilted too far into China’s sphere of influence.
As part of an effort to correct this, Modi has sought to get closer to Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who will this year run for an unprecedented third term as head of the island nation. “President Rajapaksa is going into [elections] soon,” Modi said, after meeting the controversial Sri Lankan leader on the sidelines of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation last month. “I wish him good luck.”
Meeting Rajapaksa alone is enough to raise hackles in Tamil Nadu, where he is seen as the man who oversaw what many call a genocide of Tamilians in the final stages of the Sri Lanka civil war that he vowed to end. Wishing him luck in the upcoming election, believed to be a further slide towards authoritarianism from an administration that has never taken India’s insistence on fair treatment of Tamils seriously, meant things would get even more problematic in Tamil Nadu.
Dissent in the ranks
First off the blocks was Vaiko, the general secretary of Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, one of the partners in the six-party National Democratic Alliance in Tamil Nadu. “I am terribly pained at the attitude of my Prime Minister. It's atrocious to commend the racist President who has killed several Tamils. And the PM of India is wishing him I am ashamed of it. I condemn it.”
This wasn’t taken too kindly by the BJP, whose national secretary H Raja took issue with Vaiko’s criticism of the PM. “We never deny MDMK's democratic rights. But we won't tolerate continuous attacks on Prime Minister Narendra Modi.” Raja even said Vaiko would not be able to “return home safely” if he kept taking on the PM.
This then prompted a torrent of criticism from other parties. The head of another party allied with the BJP, the Pattali Makal Katchi’s A Ramadoss, insisted that the prime minister was not above criticism and joined Vaiko in condemning Modi’s words. “It cannot be accepted even it was a courtesy statement.”
The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam was happy to pile on, with its president M Karunanidhi saying wishing Rajapkasa comes back to power is like “supporting the war crimes and violations of human rights by him.” And, naturally, the Tamil Nadu Congress, which had its own difficulties squaring its state unit’s stance with the Centre’s approach, also criticised H Raja.
BJP rabble rouser Subramanian Swamy jumped in the fray, insisting that steps should be taken to “ban” Vaiko’s MDMK for celebrating the birth anniversary of the V Prabhakaran, the leader of the Tamil Tigers who fought Rajapaksa’s army in the civil war. Swamy has also previously asked for Rajapaksa to be given the Bharat Ratna.
Finally, BJP TN President decided to step in and insisted that neither Swamy nor Raja spoke for the party in the state. “The remarks of party national secretary H Raja could be his own opinion,” she said, while calling on alliance partners to discuss their issues with the parties rather than in the public.
Electoral math
Whenever Sri Lanka comes up in Tamil Nadu’s discourse, it usually has something to do with elections. The issue is a convenient distraction: the state politicians can’t actually do a whole lot about what is an foreign affairs matter, but it gives them a convenient plank on which to assert their insistence on standing up for the Tamils.
This time it is no different. Tamil Nadu’s electoral map appears to have fragmented. The ruling All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam may seem to have an unassailable lead over everyone else, which might explain why it has been silent on Modi’s Rajapaksa meeting, but its leader, former chief minister J Jayalalithaa, is currently in legal trouble. And Jayalalithaa’s approach has always been personality centric, meaning there are persistent doubts about the party surviving without her.
The natural opposition, the DMK, appears to still be in a state of disarray after a leadership battle between Karunanidhi’s sons. The once-powerful Congress is in an even worse position, with splinters breaking off from it too. And the other smaller, community-based parties, some of which are part of the BJP’s alliance, all see this moment as the perfect chance to expand their profiles.
Back around the time of the elections, it seemed simple: a strong AIADMK, a growing BJP with its alliance partners and everyone else retreating. Jayalalithaa’s conviction has upended this and made the assembly polls of 2016 much more interesting.
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s outreach, particularly in the neighbourhood, has been touted as a sign that he understands the need for India to be a regional leader before it can become a global one. But that has also meant New Delhi has been sending favourable signals to Sri Lanka, a country that the Centre believes has tilted too far into China’s sphere of influence.
As part of an effort to correct this, Modi has sought to get closer to Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who will this year run for an unprecedented third term as head of the island nation. “President Rajapaksa is going into [elections] soon,” Modi said, after meeting the controversial Sri Lankan leader on the sidelines of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation last month. “I wish him good luck.”
Meeting Rajapaksa alone is enough to raise hackles in Tamil Nadu, where he is seen as the man who oversaw what many call a genocide of Tamilians in the final stages of the Sri Lanka civil war that he vowed to end. Wishing him luck in the upcoming election, believed to be a further slide towards authoritarianism from an administration that has never taken India’s insistence on fair treatment of Tamils seriously, meant things would get even more problematic in Tamil Nadu.
Dissent in the ranks
First off the blocks was Vaiko, the general secretary of Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, one of the partners in the six-party National Democratic Alliance in Tamil Nadu. “I am terribly pained at the attitude of my Prime Minister. It's atrocious to commend the racist President who has killed several Tamils. And the PM of India is wishing him I am ashamed of it. I condemn it.”
This wasn’t taken too kindly by the BJP, whose national secretary H Raja took issue with Vaiko’s criticism of the PM. “We never deny MDMK's democratic rights. But we won't tolerate continuous attacks on Prime Minister Narendra Modi.” Raja even said Vaiko would not be able to “return home safely” if he kept taking on the PM.
This then prompted a torrent of criticism from other parties. The head of another party allied with the BJP, the Pattali Makal Katchi’s A Ramadoss, insisted that the prime minister was not above criticism and joined Vaiko in condemning Modi’s words. “It cannot be accepted even it was a courtesy statement.”
The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam was happy to pile on, with its president M Karunanidhi saying wishing Rajapkasa comes back to power is like “supporting the war crimes and violations of human rights by him.” And, naturally, the Tamil Nadu Congress, which had its own difficulties squaring its state unit’s stance with the Centre’s approach, also criticised H Raja.
BJP rabble rouser Subramanian Swamy jumped in the fray, insisting that steps should be taken to “ban” Vaiko’s MDMK for celebrating the birth anniversary of the V Prabhakaran, the leader of the Tamil Tigers who fought Rajapaksa’s army in the civil war. Swamy has also previously asked for Rajapaksa to be given the Bharat Ratna.
Finally, BJP TN President decided to step in and insisted that neither Swamy nor Raja spoke for the party in the state. “The remarks of party national secretary H Raja could be his own opinion,” she said, while calling on alliance partners to discuss their issues with the parties rather than in the public.
Electoral math
Whenever Sri Lanka comes up in Tamil Nadu’s discourse, it usually has something to do with elections. The issue is a convenient distraction: the state politicians can’t actually do a whole lot about what is an foreign affairs matter, but it gives them a convenient plank on which to assert their insistence on standing up for the Tamils.
This time it is no different. Tamil Nadu’s electoral map appears to have fragmented. The ruling All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam may seem to have an unassailable lead over everyone else, which might explain why it has been silent on Modi’s Rajapaksa meeting, but its leader, former chief minister J Jayalalithaa, is currently in legal trouble. And Jayalalithaa’s approach has always been personality centric, meaning there are persistent doubts about the party surviving without her.
The natural opposition, the DMK, appears to still be in a state of disarray after a leadership battle between Karunanidhi’s sons. The once-powerful Congress is in an even worse position, with splinters breaking off from it too. And the other smaller, community-based parties, some of which are part of the BJP’s alliance, all see this moment as the perfect chance to expand their profiles.
Back around the time of the elections, it seemed simple: a strong AIADMK, a growing BJP with its alliance partners and everyone else retreating. Jayalalithaa’s conviction has upended this and made the assembly polls of 2016 much more interesting.