All the trends pointed this way, but the numbers are still shocking. Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal appears to have done it twice in two elections, upending all expectations and felling giants. All exit polls from the Delhi elections are indicating that AAP will form the government, and with a comfortable majority. Today's Chanakya, the pollsters that got it right in December 2013 and in the Lok Sabha polls in 2014, gave AAP a whopping 48 seats in the 70-seat assembly. If these numbers are to be believed, the ground of Indian politics has just shifted under our feet.
First the specifics: turnout on the day was a record 67.21%. Early indications from the exit polls that came in at 3 pm suggested a huge wave in favour of the AAP, with projected seat counts going as high as 53, which would be two-thirds majority in the 70-seat assembly. But the Bharatiya Janata Party's leaders, including chief ministerial candidate Kiran Bedi who addressed a press conference, insisted a late surge of voters would swing things their way.
It hasn't yet. Although numbers are still trickling in, most seem to confirm early indications that AAP, despite being massive underdogs as of just November, are on course to declare victory in Delhi for the second time in a year and a half. The average of polls at 3 pm had given the AAP 43.7% vote share and 41 seats, compared to the BJP's 35% and 26 seats. The Congress is a very distant third.
Before going further, one caveat applies. Exit poll numbers, while significantly more accurate than opinion polls, are nevertheless not even close to being a sure thing. AAP leader Yogendra Yadav himself felt the need to tweet out the exit poll numbers from 2013's elections, when the BJP ended up getting 32 and the AAP 28, to remind his supporters of how they had been embarrassingly wrong.
Keeping that in mind, if these numbers end up being accurate, expectations of Indian politics under Prime Minister Narendra Modi have significantly shifted. First, if the size of the AAP victory here comes anything close to being right, it will hugely dent the political capital that BJP president Amit Shah and Modi have built over the last two years, winning election after election.
Second Acts
Delhi might not be significant in terms of numbers, but it is the nation's capital and so gets an inordinate amount of media coverage. Having an adversarial chief minister right under the prime minister's nose is guaranteed to make it harder for the Modi narrative to follow a scripted route. Moreover, the almost-state also sends three Rajya Sabha members to Parliament, and every seat there counts for the BJP, which has found its bills blocked by a hostile upper house. Suddenly, the Modi-Shah combine is no longer infallible, and this expected victory could give succour to anti-BJP forces mustering their troops and courage all over the country.
It's also a reminder that second acts are par for course in India politics. People were ready to write off Arvind Kejriwal after he dissolved the AAP-led government last year, having spent only 49 days in charge, but the work carried out over that time still gets talked about in the capital. The introduction of Kiran Bedi as chief ministerial candidate seems to have made things worse, turning the electorate even further towards the AAP. Now the party will get a chance to walk the talk, and Kejriwal will have to prove that he isn't just a man-in-a-hurry. No one is expecting five years of a chief minister Kejriwal to lack drama, but he will have to be certain to stick it out while building his party's capacity in the process.
And finally there's the Congress. From three-time winners in Delhi to out of the picture, the Congress will have to face the fact that the capital is going the way of West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and a number of other states where it was crowded out by a local player and is now seemingly a bit player at best.
Most significant, though, is the dent this has made in the grand idea of Modi sarkar. The AAP will work to show that Delhi under them is a developed city, offering a narrative of development that could rival the BJP's claims elsewhere, and the capital already comes with a huge advantage on this front. The BJP will be hard pressed to argue otherwise, since it happens to be the capital where the two parties will have to rub shoulders. Selling the two-term Modi narrative might become a whole lot harder.
We welcome your comments at
[email protected].
First the specifics: turnout on the day was a record 67.21%. Early indications from the exit polls that came in at 3 pm suggested a huge wave in favour of the AAP, with projected seat counts going as high as 53, which would be two-thirds majority in the 70-seat assembly. But the Bharatiya Janata Party's leaders, including chief ministerial candidate Kiran Bedi who addressed a press conference, insisted a late surge of voters would swing things their way.
It hasn't yet. Although numbers are still trickling in, most seem to confirm early indications that AAP, despite being massive underdogs as of just November, are on course to declare victory in Delhi for the second time in a year and a half. The average of polls at 3 pm had given the AAP 43.7% vote share and 41 seats, compared to the BJP's 35% and 26 seats. The Congress is a very distant third.
Before going further, one caveat applies. Exit poll numbers, while significantly more accurate than opinion polls, are nevertheless not even close to being a sure thing. AAP leader Yogendra Yadav himself felt the need to tweet out the exit poll numbers from 2013's elections, when the BJP ended up getting 32 and the AAP 28, to remind his supporters of how they had been embarrassingly wrong.
Exit polls forecast in last assembly: Chanakya- A 31, B 29, C 10 Times now- A 11, B 31, C 24 ABP- A 15, B 37, C 16 Aaj Tak- A 6, B 41, C 20
— Yogendra Yadav (@AapYogendra) February 7, 2015Keeping that in mind, if these numbers end up being accurate, expectations of Indian politics under Prime Minister Narendra Modi have significantly shifted. First, if the size of the AAP victory here comes anything close to being right, it will hugely dent the political capital that BJP president Amit Shah and Modi have built over the last two years, winning election after election.
Second Acts
Delhi might not be significant in terms of numbers, but it is the nation's capital and so gets an inordinate amount of media coverage. Having an adversarial chief minister right under the prime minister's nose is guaranteed to make it harder for the Modi narrative to follow a scripted route. Moreover, the almost-state also sends three Rajya Sabha members to Parliament, and every seat there counts for the BJP, which has found its bills blocked by a hostile upper house. Suddenly, the Modi-Shah combine is no longer infallible, and this expected victory could give succour to anti-BJP forces mustering their troops and courage all over the country.
It's also a reminder that second acts are par for course in India politics. People were ready to write off Arvind Kejriwal after he dissolved the AAP-led government last year, having spent only 49 days in charge, but the work carried out over that time still gets talked about in the capital. The introduction of Kiran Bedi as chief ministerial candidate seems to have made things worse, turning the electorate even further towards the AAP. Now the party will get a chance to walk the talk, and Kejriwal will have to prove that he isn't just a man-in-a-hurry. No one is expecting five years of a chief minister Kejriwal to lack drama, but he will have to be certain to stick it out while building his party's capacity in the process.
And finally there's the Congress. From three-time winners in Delhi to out of the picture, the Congress will have to face the fact that the capital is going the way of West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and a number of other states where it was crowded out by a local player and is now seemingly a bit player at best.
Most significant, though, is the dent this has made in the grand idea of Modi sarkar. The AAP will work to show that Delhi under them is a developed city, offering a narrative of development that could rival the BJP's claims elsewhere, and the capital already comes with a huge advantage on this front. The BJP will be hard pressed to argue otherwise, since it happens to be the capital where the two parties will have to rub shoulders. Selling the two-term Modi narrative might become a whole lot harder.