And most indications suggest those prices are here to stay. For net exporters of the stuff, this isn't necessarily a good thing – think of countries like Russia – but for India, which imports a huge amount of oil, it's a huge boon. Oil happens to be one of the biggest items on the nation's import bill and even a small drop in prices ends up having a huge effect on the economy, so a fall of this magnitude is massive.
On Wednesday, the government admitted this by pointing out exactly how massive. "It is estimated that for every one USD decrease in crude price, the country’s import bill decreases by around Rs. 8,578 crore," the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said in a reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha. That's right, a decrease of a single dollar results in savings of eight and a half thousand crore rupees on our import ball, presuming things like the actual exchange rate and the amount we spend on oil remain equal.
That's a huge amount. This would vary on a monthly basis, but a rough calculation of just how much money this has saved the government based on month-on-month data suggests a windfall of Rs 4,39,365 crore between May, when Modi took over and now.
This would be tempered a little bit by daily changes in the exchange rate, oil prices and how much is actually spent on oil. The Ministry's response in the Rajya Sabha also pointed out how much a stronger rupee affects the oil import bill. "If the rupee appreciates vis-à-vis US Dollar then for every one rupee appreciation in exchange rate, the country’s crude oil import bill decreases by around Rs. 12,328 crore," the ministry said.
The above chart would, of course, change a bit counting in alterations in the exchange rate, but considering it has generally stayed in the 60-62 rupee to a dollar rate, the savings wouldn't have been dramatically different. Either way, it is clear that Modi's oil price luck has been hugely beneficial to the country.