A new global report has revealed that India has become the world's fastest-growing major polluter. Bucking a worldwide trend of slowing carbon emissions, India’s emissions grew quicker in 2014 than they had ever done before. This holds serious implications for climate change.
The first sign that the Indian establishment has taken note of this emerged on Wednesday with a report in the Business Standard stating that Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian has written to the Prime Minister, recommending that India radically change its strategy on climate change. "He has advised that India stop focusing on adaptation to meet the inevitable threats of climate change on the poor and, instead, do more to reduce its own emissions," the newspaper said.
The projected risks of extreme climate change as a consequence of rising carbon emissions spells nothing less than catastrophe for India: extreme heat waves, changes in rainfall patterns and persistent droughts affecting food security, a rise in sea levels that will impact cities and the large coastal population, a freshwater scarcity owing to melting glaciers, a rise in vector-borne diseases and overall distress migration and conflict.
This not a futuristic scenario: some of these impacts are already being felt in the form of unprecedented heat waves that killed hundreds of people in the Deccan earlier this year, extreme weather events like the 2013 Uttarakhand flash floods and increasingly erratic rainfall.
India's increased carbon emissions are the result of its high growth rate. Economic growth is fuelled by energy consumption – and since fossil fuels meet 85% of India's energy needs, this means greater carbon emissions. India's high emissions are unlikely to fall soon. Projections by several international agencies including the World Bank show that the Indian economy is expected to grow faster than any other major economy, including China.
However, a high GDP growth rate alone does not explain India’s disproportionately high emissions. The Chinese economy, almost five times as big, grew at the same rate (7.4%) as India in 2014, but China’s carbon emissions growth was only half of India’s. This brings us to the second layer of the problem: coal.
Coal-dependent growth
Coal is India's biggest source of energy, supplying 54.5% of the country’s total energy needs. It is at the heart of the Modi government’s growth strategy, the primary energy source fuelling that massive, Chinese-style industrialisation drive envisaged by the Make In India initiative.
Data from the World Resources Institute show that of 1,200 new coal-based thermal power plants being planned worldwide, the lion’s share – 455 plants – are set to come up in India. The cheapest of all fossil fuels, coal also has the highest carbon content, making it the dirtiest energy source in terms of pollution and impact on climate.
There's another layer to the problem. India's coal-based power plants are among the most inefficient in the world. Earlier this year, the first-ever environmental study of coal-based power plants in India, conducted by the Centre for Science and Environment, showed that Indian coal plants fail to meet global benchmarks on nearly every count.
While India’s high emissions are a consequence of these factors, carbon emissions in other parts of the world have been steadily declining. This is because the economic slowdown in most major economies means that they are using less coal. Besides, the European Union and Japan have made globally-significant emission cuts, while China has made a major push in renewable energy.
More than a trend
It is true that the Modi government is also pursuing a renewable-energy programme, considered to be among the world’s most ambitious, apart from a clutch of energy-conservation schemes. However, this does not indicate a turn away from highly polluting fossil fuels, as is evident from the government’s massive investment in coal power to meet its ambitious growth targets.
The recent crackdown against the Greenpeace India, which has consistently opposed coal-mining in forest areas and highly polluting coal powered plants, attests to the determination behind the government’s energy policy. Considering that India is still in the early days of the government’s aggressive industrial push, Indian emissions will keep rising in the coming years even as emissions by other major polluters continue to decline.
In short, India has, almost overnight, emerged as one of the most critical players when it comes to climate change.
The case of the missing pledge
This December, government delegations from almost every country will converge on Paris for the 2015 Conference of Parties of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, which has been described as the most important climate negotiation in history.
Ahead of the meet, each member nation is expected to submit a voluntary emissions pledge or Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, which usually includes a commitment to a future "peak emissions" date. The INDCs signify the extent of each nation’s willingness (or lack of it) to tackle climate change, and are largely what will determine the outcome of the negotiations. Among major polluters, India alone is yet to submit its INDC.
India’s Minister for Environment and Climate Change Prakash Javadekar has stated that India will submit its pledge ahead of the Paris talks, but added that it will not set a date for peak emissions. Mysteriously, he also added that India’s INDCs would be “much more ambitious” than the world expects.
Javadekar’s statement points to the age-old division that has plagued international climate talks over the decades: Developing nations emphasise historical emissions to insist that rich nations should make bigger cuts, while the latter point to future emissions and want developing nations to apply the brakes first. The result is a climate gridlock, which is why most talks have failed.
While India and other developing countries accuse rich nations of double standards on climate change, they are right. This may be a genuine grievance, but it almost amounts to a technicality when seen against the enormity of the existential threat that is climate change.
Climate change: a planetary crisis
The impact of carbon emissions, scientists say, is cumulative: every ton of CO2 added to the atmosphere adds to the rise in global temperatures, which in turn pushes the world that much closer towards irreversible climate change.
The scientific consensus today pegs the absolute maximum temperature increase that the planet can afford at 2 degrees Celsius, beyond which there is a risk of dangerous and irreversible warming that could endanger human survival itself.
The cumulative impact of CO2 emissions means that the question of who is responsible for how much emission in the past matters less; what really counts is that every additional ton of CO2 increases the risk for everyone. In fact, the risks are not the same for every country. Studies have repeatedly shown that for largely tropical countries like India, with its large coastal populations, largely rainfall-dependent agriculture and glacier-dependent freshwater supply, climate change poses a disproportionately graver threat.
Business as usual won’t do
Analyses of the data presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s authoritative Fifth Assessment Report show that anywhere from 80%-90% of remaining fossil fuel reserves should be left in the ground for the world to even have a chance of limiting global warming to below 20C. Recent research shows that if carbon emissions continue at present rates, the 20C barrier may be breached as early as 2036.
India simply cannot afford to mimic China’s "grow now, pay later" approach. The choice is clear: given its own vulnerability to climate change, India must rethink its growth-obsessed economic model and act immediately to effect a voluntarily transition to clean energy, while simultaneously putting pressure on other big polluters to follow suit. Else, it can continue playing a lethal game of brinksmanship from which everyone loses, most of all India itself.
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The first sign that the Indian establishment has taken note of this emerged on Wednesday with a report in the Business Standard stating that Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian has written to the Prime Minister, recommending that India radically change its strategy on climate change. "He has advised that India stop focusing on adaptation to meet the inevitable threats of climate change on the poor and, instead, do more to reduce its own emissions," the newspaper said.
The projected risks of extreme climate change as a consequence of rising carbon emissions spells nothing less than catastrophe for India: extreme heat waves, changes in rainfall patterns and persistent droughts affecting food security, a rise in sea levels that will impact cities and the large coastal population, a freshwater scarcity owing to melting glaciers, a rise in vector-borne diseases and overall distress migration and conflict.
This not a futuristic scenario: some of these impacts are already being felt in the form of unprecedented heat waves that killed hundreds of people in the Deccan earlier this year, extreme weather events like the 2013 Uttarakhand flash floods and increasingly erratic rainfall.
India's increased carbon emissions are the result of its high growth rate. Economic growth is fuelled by energy consumption – and since fossil fuels meet 85% of India's energy needs, this means greater carbon emissions. India's high emissions are unlikely to fall soon. Projections by several international agencies including the World Bank show that the Indian economy is expected to grow faster than any other major economy, including China.
However, a high GDP growth rate alone does not explain India’s disproportionately high emissions. The Chinese economy, almost five times as big, grew at the same rate (7.4%) as India in 2014, but China’s carbon emissions growth was only half of India’s. This brings us to the second layer of the problem: coal.
Coal-dependent growth
Coal is India's biggest source of energy, supplying 54.5% of the country’s total energy needs. It is at the heart of the Modi government’s growth strategy, the primary energy source fuelling that massive, Chinese-style industrialisation drive envisaged by the Make In India initiative.
Data from the World Resources Institute show that of 1,200 new coal-based thermal power plants being planned worldwide, the lion’s share – 455 plants – are set to come up in India. The cheapest of all fossil fuels, coal also has the highest carbon content, making it the dirtiest energy source in terms of pollution and impact on climate.
There's another layer to the problem. India's coal-based power plants are among the most inefficient in the world. Earlier this year, the first-ever environmental study of coal-based power plants in India, conducted by the Centre for Science and Environment, showed that Indian coal plants fail to meet global benchmarks on nearly every count.
While India’s high emissions are a consequence of these factors, carbon emissions in other parts of the world have been steadily declining. This is because the economic slowdown in most major economies means that they are using less coal. Besides, the European Union and Japan have made globally-significant emission cuts, while China has made a major push in renewable energy.
More than a trend
It is true that the Modi government is also pursuing a renewable-energy programme, considered to be among the world’s most ambitious, apart from a clutch of energy-conservation schemes. However, this does not indicate a turn away from highly polluting fossil fuels, as is evident from the government’s massive investment in coal power to meet its ambitious growth targets.
The recent crackdown against the Greenpeace India, which has consistently opposed coal-mining in forest areas and highly polluting coal powered plants, attests to the determination behind the government’s energy policy. Considering that India is still in the early days of the government’s aggressive industrial push, Indian emissions will keep rising in the coming years even as emissions by other major polluters continue to decline.
In short, India has, almost overnight, emerged as one of the most critical players when it comes to climate change.
The case of the missing pledge
This December, government delegations from almost every country will converge on Paris for the 2015 Conference of Parties of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, which has been described as the most important climate negotiation in history.
Ahead of the meet, each member nation is expected to submit a voluntary emissions pledge or Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, which usually includes a commitment to a future "peak emissions" date. The INDCs signify the extent of each nation’s willingness (or lack of it) to tackle climate change, and are largely what will determine the outcome of the negotiations. Among major polluters, India alone is yet to submit its INDC.
India’s Minister for Environment and Climate Change Prakash Javadekar has stated that India will submit its pledge ahead of the Paris talks, but added that it will not set a date for peak emissions. Mysteriously, he also added that India’s INDCs would be “much more ambitious” than the world expects.
Javadekar’s statement points to the age-old division that has plagued international climate talks over the decades: Developing nations emphasise historical emissions to insist that rich nations should make bigger cuts, while the latter point to future emissions and want developing nations to apply the brakes first. The result is a climate gridlock, which is why most talks have failed.
While India and other developing countries accuse rich nations of double standards on climate change, they are right. This may be a genuine grievance, but it almost amounts to a technicality when seen against the enormity of the existential threat that is climate change.
Climate change: a planetary crisis
The impact of carbon emissions, scientists say, is cumulative: every ton of CO2 added to the atmosphere adds to the rise in global temperatures, which in turn pushes the world that much closer towards irreversible climate change.
The scientific consensus today pegs the absolute maximum temperature increase that the planet can afford at 2 degrees Celsius, beyond which there is a risk of dangerous and irreversible warming that could endanger human survival itself.
The cumulative impact of CO2 emissions means that the question of who is responsible for how much emission in the past matters less; what really counts is that every additional ton of CO2 increases the risk for everyone. In fact, the risks are not the same for every country. Studies have repeatedly shown that for largely tropical countries like India, with its large coastal populations, largely rainfall-dependent agriculture and glacier-dependent freshwater supply, climate change poses a disproportionately graver threat.
Business as usual won’t do
Analyses of the data presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s authoritative Fifth Assessment Report show that anywhere from 80%-90% of remaining fossil fuel reserves should be left in the ground for the world to even have a chance of limiting global warming to below 20C. Recent research shows that if carbon emissions continue at present rates, the 20C barrier may be breached as early as 2036.
India simply cannot afford to mimic China’s "grow now, pay later" approach. The choice is clear: given its own vulnerability to climate change, India must rethink its growth-obsessed economic model and act immediately to effect a voluntarily transition to clean energy, while simultaneously putting pressure on other big polluters to follow suit. Else, it can continue playing a lethal game of brinksmanship from which everyone loses, most of all India itself.