The high-decibel agitation by a young brigade of Patels for reservations under the Other Backward Classes quota in Gujarat hasn’t just resulted in a simple electoral challenge to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, whose key constituency is the same powerful community. It has also driven the state towards social strife in the absence of an adroit response from the Anandiben Patel government.

The protests led by 22-year-old Hardik Patel have spawned a strong consolidation of the Other Backward Classes, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes under the banner of the OBC Ekta Manch. Over the last few weeks, these groups have held several rallies and warned the state government that giving the Patels a slice from their quota pie would lead to serious repercussions.

All this while, the government has fumbled and bungled. Its response to the agitation by the Patels, who form 14% of Gujarat’s population but dominate the state’s economy and politics, has lacked in political will and direction.

First pleas, then violence

In the beginning, Chief Minister Anandiben Patel issued an appeal to the Patels not to be swayed by the agitating youngsters and clarified that, under the Indian Constitution, there couldn’t be any more reservations. Although the appeal was also addressed to the leaders of the Patel protests, it elicited no response. Instead, the agitation went from strength to strength – first there was a two-wheeler procession in Surat and then a show of numbers at the “maha kranti” rally in Ahmedabad on August 25.

When words of appeals didn’t work, the chief minister instructed the police to resort to force, resulting in the death of nine people. This generated a public outcry, especially among the Patels, and boomeranged on the government.

Eventually, the chief minister got the Patel agitators to the negotiating table on Monday night and pleaded for a reprieve of 10 days to decide on their demands in return for an undertaking that they would tone down their movement. This too had zero impact.

Indeed, the Patel agitators are now thinking national. In a meeting after the talks with Anandiben Patel, the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti and the Sardar Patel Group, the spearheads of the pro-reservation agitation, considered forming a national party. They claimed that there are 27 crore people belonging to communities like the Patidar (Patel) caste, but with different nomenclature, in 14 states. They have already tentatively named the party Patel Navnirman Sena.

Going national

They are resolved to be in it for the long haul. Within minutes of emerging from the meeting with the chief minister, Hardik Patel announced that the reverse Dandi Yatra they had planned from Dandi in south Gujarat to Ahmedabad’s Sabarmati Ashram would go ahead on Sunday. Denied permission by the government, the yatra had been earlier put off after finance minister Saurabh Patel managed to bring the agitators around to talk to the government.

Predictably, the planned yatra has generated a strong reaction from the OBC Ekta Manch. It has threatened that any such procession would face a counter rally from 70 villages around Dandi in south Gujarat’s Navsari district. This is significant because the south Gujarat belt has huge Koli Patel (OBCs) and tribal populations, many of whose leaders were present at the launch of the OBC Ekta Manch last month.

Koli Patels, largely fishermen with strong numbers in south Gujarat as well as Saurashtra region, comprise 20% of the state’s population and have been given reservations in government jobs and educational institutions under the OBC category.

This is one reason why no government under the BJP has been able to ignore Purshottam Solanki, a Koli leader from Bhavnagar in Saurashtra region, despite his indictment by the Srikrishna Commission investigating the post-Babri demolition Mumbai riots and allegations of his involvement in a Rs 400 crore fisheries contract scam. Solanki continues as a minister in the state, just as he did when Narendra Modi was chief minister.

The tables have turned

The looming caste conflict between those seeking space in the OBC quota and those wishing to keep them away has revived memories of the bloody anti-reservation agitation of 1985 that was led, incidentally, by the Patels and the BJP.

Thirty years ago, the agitation was against the KHAM (Kshatriyas, Harijans, Adivasis, Muslims) combination of the Madhavsinh Solanki-led Congress party, which had won a record 149 of the 182 seats in the Gujarat assembly. The KHAM communities comprise over 70% of the electorate.

Realising the need to break the KHAM formula, the BJP had successfully converted the anti-reservation agitation into a Hindu-Muslim conflagration. Muslims then were bystanders to high caste attacks on backward class communities but stood by the latter during violent assaults. By the early nineties, when the BJP first tasted power, it had dismantled the constituents of KHAM, paving the way for the Patels to rule the roost in Gujarat politics. The Congress could never aspire for power after that.

Now a new generation of the same Patels have stood up as a challenge to the BJP. Meanwhile, the constitution of the OBC Ekta Manch – with Dalits and Adivasis throwing their weight behind it – signals the revival of the Congress’s lethal KHAM formula. Political warfare apart, a fresh phase of social strife looms large over Gujarat.

Darshan Desai is Editor, Development News Network, and Director, Centre for Media Research, Training and Advocacy.