Is Bihar really as divided as recent surveys suggest? Or is the outcome a done deal, with the majority of voters actually having made up their minds? The answer will not be known until November 8, the day on which the ballots are counted. What is certain is that the elections in Bihar – where the first phase of polling takes place on Monday – are likely to shape not just how the state fares in the next five years but also the remainder of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tenure.
Modi has taken the risk of letting the Bihar assembly polls become a referendum on the performance of his government at the Centre. A victory in the elections would vindicate the Bharatiya Janata Party’s decision not to project a chief ministerial candidate and instead go to the polls under Modi’s leadership. It would prove the effectiveness of the BJP’s Modi-centric electoral strategy, and the model could be replicated in several states ‒ including Uttar Pradesh ‒ where elections are due in around 18 months. In addition, a triumph in Bihar would break the opposition’s backbone and leave Modi’s detractors in the Sangh Parivar completely shattered.
A defeat, on the other hand, would not just be seen as the first clear vote against Modi but would go a long way to confirm the changed mood of the nation, which was first reflected early this year in Assembly elections of Delhi, where the BJP won merely three out of 70 seats.
Clear strategy
For some time after the BJP’s massive successes in the Lok Sabha elections in May last year, the saffron party’s position in state elections was clear – it refused to project any candidate as the potential chief minister and instead foregrounded Modi’s charisma. The state polls in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir were all (and only) about Modi. The strategy worked unusually well in Haryana. Though the party did not get simple majority in remaining three states, the model was successful in helping it become part of alliance governments there.
In the Delhi polls, however, as the Modi-centric strategy appeared to be showing signs of fatigue. The BJP buckled and, changing tack, announced that former IPS officer Kiran Bedi would be the party’s chief ministerial candidate.
In Bihar, despite pollsters calling the contest too close to call, the party has struck to its Modi-centric strategy. A defeat, therefore, would be seen as the defeat of Modi just as a victory would leave the prime minister in an unusually powerful position.
Tied with the Bihar polls is not just the fate of Modi, but also of his closest aide Amit Shah, the BJP president whose term comes for renewal in January. It is widely believed that Shah would be the first victim of Bihar if the party loses this election. That would be a setback for Modi, too. Shah is not just the executioner of the Prime Minister’s political strategies but is also the eyes and ears of the “Saheb”, the expression he uses for Modi.
Crucial phase
Although all five phases of Bihar polls are of equal significance, the first phase in particular is being watched keenly by political observers who consider it slightly more critical for the BJP than the grand alliance consisting of Rashtriya Janata Dal, Janata Dal-United and Congress.
Some of the districts which are going to polls in the first phase are areas of major concern for the BJP. Dissident activities, for example, are rampant in many of the constituencies of Samastipur, Bhagalpur and Begusarai districts where many BJP leaders are unhappy over the distribution of tickets.
Moreover, the first phase of polling often creates rumours and messages that have considerable bearing on the polling pattern in the remaining phases. The 49 constituencies going to the polls on Monday, therefore, have the capacity to set the trend and mood for the rest of the state.
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Modi has taken the risk of letting the Bihar assembly polls become a referendum on the performance of his government at the Centre. A victory in the elections would vindicate the Bharatiya Janata Party’s decision not to project a chief ministerial candidate and instead go to the polls under Modi’s leadership. It would prove the effectiveness of the BJP’s Modi-centric electoral strategy, and the model could be replicated in several states ‒ including Uttar Pradesh ‒ where elections are due in around 18 months. In addition, a triumph in Bihar would break the opposition’s backbone and leave Modi’s detractors in the Sangh Parivar completely shattered.
A defeat, on the other hand, would not just be seen as the first clear vote against Modi but would go a long way to confirm the changed mood of the nation, which was first reflected early this year in Assembly elections of Delhi, where the BJP won merely three out of 70 seats.
Clear strategy
For some time after the BJP’s massive successes in the Lok Sabha elections in May last year, the saffron party’s position in state elections was clear – it refused to project any candidate as the potential chief minister and instead foregrounded Modi’s charisma. The state polls in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir were all (and only) about Modi. The strategy worked unusually well in Haryana. Though the party did not get simple majority in remaining three states, the model was successful in helping it become part of alliance governments there.
In the Delhi polls, however, as the Modi-centric strategy appeared to be showing signs of fatigue. The BJP buckled and, changing tack, announced that former IPS officer Kiran Bedi would be the party’s chief ministerial candidate.
In Bihar, despite pollsters calling the contest too close to call, the party has struck to its Modi-centric strategy. A defeat, therefore, would be seen as the defeat of Modi just as a victory would leave the prime minister in an unusually powerful position.
Tied with the Bihar polls is not just the fate of Modi, but also of his closest aide Amit Shah, the BJP president whose term comes for renewal in January. It is widely believed that Shah would be the first victim of Bihar if the party loses this election. That would be a setback for Modi, too. Shah is not just the executioner of the Prime Minister’s political strategies but is also the eyes and ears of the “Saheb”, the expression he uses for Modi.
Crucial phase
Although all five phases of Bihar polls are of equal significance, the first phase in particular is being watched keenly by political observers who consider it slightly more critical for the BJP than the grand alliance consisting of Rashtriya Janata Dal, Janata Dal-United and Congress.
Some of the districts which are going to polls in the first phase are areas of major concern for the BJP. Dissident activities, for example, are rampant in many of the constituencies of Samastipur, Bhagalpur and Begusarai districts where many BJP leaders are unhappy over the distribution of tickets.
Moreover, the first phase of polling often creates rumours and messages that have considerable bearing on the polling pattern in the remaining phases. The 49 constituencies going to the polls on Monday, therefore, have the capacity to set the trend and mood for the rest of the state.
