It is impossible to spin the Bihar verdict as a good thing for the Bharatiya Janata Party. A rout, even if it imparts crucial political lessons, is never a positive thing. Worse, the party has a very difficult calendar ahead of it. Of the four state elections lined up in 2016, it is only expected to seriously compete in one. If it doesn't manage to win that, the BJP is looking at two whole years without a single state election victory. That will come as a serious blow to a party that was hoping to spread its influence across the land. But it might, inadvertently, end up being a good thing for Narendra Modi.
The 2014 general election made it seem like the BJP had truly become a national player. The party not only managed to sweep the Hindi heartland, it also made a dent in unlikely places. Voters in West Bengal and Kerala, states with a negligible BJP presence, were for the first time discussing Modi. There was the sense that the prime minister's popularity could paper over caste and class divisions, if not religious ones. The party's leadership saw an opportunity to consolidate the heartland and expand into new spaces, with Modi as its all-conquering colossus.
Elections from later that year only confirmed this impression. The BJP became the single-largest party in Maharashtra, won majorities in Haryana and Chhattisgarh and put together a potentially transformative alliance in Jammu and Kashmir. These victories were all Modi's, as he continued to remain chief campaigner in addition to being prime minister.
The 2015 debacles
Then came 2015, and with it Delhi elections. Here, right under the prime minister's nose, a messy BJP unit veered from one way to another and suddenly decided to project a "parachute" chief ministerial candidate who turned out to be terrible at campaigning as well as working with the local leadership. The result was a landslide for the Aam Aadmi Party and the first knock on BJP President Amit Shah's record.
It was sold as a momentary blip, a reflection more of local incompetence coupled with the Kiran Bedi disaster than anything else. A similar debacle in Bihar – which went back to the Modi-as-chief-campaigner formula – turns the temporary blip into a trend.
Worse, for Modi, it has come with serious political consequences. One may argue that the Land Acquisition amendment was an error from the very beginning and that the BJP was prudent to junk it. But it also can't be denied that the BJP chose to step back from the policy, one that Modi said was crucial for India's future, because of elections in Bihar.
Had Modi not been concerned about his short-term electoral appeal in Bihar, the BJP might not have had to give in. Now the prime minsiter is left in the unhappy position of neither having passed the legislation nor having won in Bihar.
The 2016 calendar
As the BJP looks ahead to 2016, it will see four state elections on the horizon: Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Only Assam offers real potential for the BJP to win a state. Everywhere else it might manage to make gains, but only as a bit player. And even Assam is no slam-dunk. But it's also not a high-profile election that will be seen as a mainstream reflection of the Modi government, the way Bihar was.
Conventional wisdom now seems to have it that Modi was overexposed in Bihar, when he should have remained more prime ministerial. The charges against him have also been that he jets around the world too much, and doesn't do enough at home. From a policy perspective, it's evident that the BJP has had to temper its reform efforts because it wanted to win state elections.
Just like the Bihar rout, the prospect of not winning any elections over two years can't possibly be spun as a good thing for the BJP. But it might make Modi's priorities easier to list out. The prime minister will now have the freedom of worrying less about the party's growth and more about his government's success. It's not until Uttar Pradesh polls in 2017 that Modi will face a test in a "bellwether" state.
Other lessons emerging from the Bihar result might also confirm this takeaway: That the BJP ought to have stuck to development and jobs, rather than communal issues in its Bihar campaign. The pressure to not discipline those in the party who would rather discuss beef and Pakistani crackers may be felt less when Modi isn't concerned about whether he has to rely on that tack to win an election. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has almost admitted as much.
Uttar Pradesh will be a massive fight, one that will set the tone for the 2019 general election, and one in which the BJP will have to struggle even harder against the core of its leadership which feels the urge to fall back on communalism to win votes. That internal struggle will be seriously tested in Assam – because of the questions about its Muslim population – but it is less likely to captivate the nation as much. And without those electoral concerns, Modi might have the political space to refocus on the development plank that brought him to power in the first place.
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The 2014 general election made it seem like the BJP had truly become a national player. The party not only managed to sweep the Hindi heartland, it also made a dent in unlikely places. Voters in West Bengal and Kerala, states with a negligible BJP presence, were for the first time discussing Modi. There was the sense that the prime minister's popularity could paper over caste and class divisions, if not religious ones. The party's leadership saw an opportunity to consolidate the heartland and expand into new spaces, with Modi as its all-conquering colossus.
Elections from later that year only confirmed this impression. The BJP became the single-largest party in Maharashtra, won majorities in Haryana and Chhattisgarh and put together a potentially transformative alliance in Jammu and Kashmir. These victories were all Modi's, as he continued to remain chief campaigner in addition to being prime minister.
The 2015 debacles
Then came 2015, and with it Delhi elections. Here, right under the prime minister's nose, a messy BJP unit veered from one way to another and suddenly decided to project a "parachute" chief ministerial candidate who turned out to be terrible at campaigning as well as working with the local leadership. The result was a landslide for the Aam Aadmi Party and the first knock on BJP President Amit Shah's record.
It was sold as a momentary blip, a reflection more of local incompetence coupled with the Kiran Bedi disaster than anything else. A similar debacle in Bihar – which went back to the Modi-as-chief-campaigner formula – turns the temporary blip into a trend.
Worse, for Modi, it has come with serious political consequences. One may argue that the Land Acquisition amendment was an error from the very beginning and that the BJP was prudent to junk it. But it also can't be denied that the BJP chose to step back from the policy, one that Modi said was crucial for India's future, because of elections in Bihar.
Had Modi not been concerned about his short-term electoral appeal in Bihar, the BJP might not have had to give in. Now the prime minsiter is left in the unhappy position of neither having passed the legislation nor having won in Bihar.
The 2016 calendar
As the BJP looks ahead to 2016, it will see four state elections on the horizon: Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Only Assam offers real potential for the BJP to win a state. Everywhere else it might manage to make gains, but only as a bit player. And even Assam is no slam-dunk. But it's also not a high-profile election that will be seen as a mainstream reflection of the Modi government, the way Bihar was.
Conventional wisdom now seems to have it that Modi was overexposed in Bihar, when he should have remained more prime ministerial. The charges against him have also been that he jets around the world too much, and doesn't do enough at home. From a policy perspective, it's evident that the BJP has had to temper its reform efforts because it wanted to win state elections.
Just like the Bihar rout, the prospect of not winning any elections over two years can't possibly be spun as a good thing for the BJP. But it might make Modi's priorities easier to list out. The prime minister will now have the freedom of worrying less about the party's growth and more about his government's success. It's not until Uttar Pradesh polls in 2017 that Modi will face a test in a "bellwether" state.
Other lessons emerging from the Bihar result might also confirm this takeaway: That the BJP ought to have stuck to development and jobs, rather than communal issues in its Bihar campaign. The pressure to not discipline those in the party who would rather discuss beef and Pakistani crackers may be felt less when Modi isn't concerned about whether he has to rely on that tack to win an election. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has almost admitted as much.
Uttar Pradesh will be a massive fight, one that will set the tone for the 2019 general election, and one in which the BJP will have to struggle even harder against the core of its leadership which feels the urge to fall back on communalism to win votes. That internal struggle will be seriously tested in Assam – because of the questions about its Muslim population – but it is less likely to captivate the nation as much. And without those electoral concerns, Modi might have the political space to refocus on the development plank that brought him to power in the first place.
