Never mind references to Archduke Ferdinand and World War I. Events this week have been far more reminiscent of the 18th and 19th century when ships straying into rival territory could spark a broader war between the age-old great power rivals of Turkey and Russia. On Tuesday, it emerged that Turkey had shot down a Russian warplane which it claimed had strayed into its airspace. Russian President Vladimir Putin, however, insisted that it had been in Syrian airspace all along and called the incident a "stab in the back by the associates of terror".
Any unity that might have emerged in the aftermath of the Paris attacks to take on the Islamic State is now in danger, if not destroyed already. Turkey has called an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, which includes much of Western Europe and the United States, to inform its allies about the downing of the plane. Reports have meanwhile suggested that Putin is set to call an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. This may not be war, but it certainly isn't peace either.
What is actually going on?
Syria, and this will come as no surprise to anyone who has even vaguely been paying attention to the news, is a complete mess right now and has been for some time.
The ruling administration, led by President Bashar al-Assad had come under pressure from widespread protests in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. But this quickly turned into a civil war as other countries in the region began backing the armed, often Sunni Islamicist rebellion against the Alawite al-Assad.
As Assad dug his heels in, and the administration in neighbouring Iraq broke down, a new entity, the Islamic State, started capturing territory on both sides of the border. The Paris attacks have reminded the rest of the world why the Islamic State is dangerous, but differences over whether Assad should stay or go have divided the great powers, including the US and Russia, as well as the patchwork of alliances from the Gulf countries to Turkey to Iran, all of which have a stake in how things end up.
Do these Russia and Turkey have a history?
Yes. Very much so. The two countries have never been the greatest of friends, with the Russian and Ottoman Empires enduring a bloody rivalry for the better part of the last millennium. That rivalry had seriously subsided over the last few years, with Putin and Turkish President Reccep Teyyip Erdogan finding common ground enough to take bilateral trade from $5 billion in 2002 all the way to $31 billion last year.
But one thing has come in the way of that: Syria. The trouble country is right on Turkey's border, making it an existential concern for Ankara, and has been taken as a key factor in Putin's global politics, meaning Moscow takes it seriously as well. And here's the crux: Even though both the countries claim to be against the Islamic State, they're actually on opposite sides of this conflict.
Where does Russia stand?
As part of its positioning against NATO hegemony, Moscow has sought to make common cause with nations that are willing to oppose the broader consensus in Western Europe and the United States. This happens to include both Iran and Syria. Putin is a staunch ally of the administration in Tehran and has frequently expressed his support for Assad.
Moscow doesn't like the mishmash of soft Islamicist groups that have been trying to bring down Assad's government and opposes the Islamic State as well. Its recent campaign of airstrikes, ostensibly against the Islamic State, has in fact also involved bombing other Syrian rebels to strengthen Assad's position.
Where does Turkey stand?
Ankara has been a critic of Assad ever since the uprising began and has made common cause with many of the rebellious groups that have sought to bring the Syrian administration down. This includes the Islamic State itself, with a number of jihadists who would join ISIS actually getting shelter and even funds in Turkish territory. Ankara's biggest concern has been a strengthening of the Kurdish fighters in the region, who are seen as a threat because of Turkey's own Kurdish question and its insecurity about a Kurdistan.
Turkey wants to fight back against ISIS, while also getting rid of Assad and preventing any empowerment of Kurdish forces, who in fact have been most successful against the Islamic State.
Why are Russian planes straying into Turkey?
Turkey has for some time now been demanding a safe zone in the north of Syria. This would give a base to the Sunni opposition to Assad, reduce the refugee flow out of the country but also make it harder for Assad to think about staying in power. Russia has seen what safe zones like this can do: Similar ones were established as a defensive measure over Libya, but they quickly became an excuse for the West to bring down Muammar Gaddafi's regime, which had been allied with Moscow.
To pre-empt any thought of safe zones, Russia has been showing that it is not afraid to have its war planes operate literally on the edge. Earlier this week, Ankara summoned the Russian ambassador to complain about Russian jets straying into Turkish territory, in what most believe was Moscow's way of telling Turkey that it cannot "seize" territory in Syria. Neither side seems to have come to a happy conclusion, prompting Russian jets to allegedly stray across the border and get shot down.
What now?
War is unlikely, yet Putin's statement about being stabbed in the back and his pointed mention of Turkey's connections to ISIS suggest things are just beginning. NATO and the UN Security Council getting involved will slow down processes in a positive way, forcing some careful consideration rather than hasty action, but the same problem that Syria has faced all along still remains: There's no easy way for this to end.
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Any unity that might have emerged in the aftermath of the Paris attacks to take on the Islamic State is now in danger, if not destroyed already. Turkey has called an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, which includes much of Western Europe and the United States, to inform its allies about the downing of the plane. Reports have meanwhile suggested that Putin is set to call an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. This may not be war, but it certainly isn't peace either.
What is actually going on?
Turkey is reported to have shot down a Russian plane. Who is backing whom in the region? https://t.co/Do8DWITfiY pic.twitter.com/NNThzJ5vSg
— The Economist (@EconEurope) November 24, 2015Syria, and this will come as no surprise to anyone who has even vaguely been paying attention to the news, is a complete mess right now and has been for some time.
The ruling administration, led by President Bashar al-Assad had come under pressure from widespread protests in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. But this quickly turned into a civil war as other countries in the region began backing the armed, often Sunni Islamicist rebellion against the Alawite al-Assad.
As Assad dug his heels in, and the administration in neighbouring Iraq broke down, a new entity, the Islamic State, started capturing territory on both sides of the border. The Paris attacks have reminded the rest of the world why the Islamic State is dangerous, but differences over whether Assad should stay or go have divided the great powers, including the US and Russia, as well as the patchwork of alliances from the Gulf countries to Turkey to Iran, all of which have a stake in how things end up.
Do these Russia and Turkey have a history?
Yes. Very much so. The two countries have never been the greatest of friends, with the Russian and Ottoman Empires enduring a bloody rivalry for the better part of the last millennium. That rivalry had seriously subsided over the last few years, with Putin and Turkish President Reccep Teyyip Erdogan finding common ground enough to take bilateral trade from $5 billion in 2002 all the way to $31 billion last year.
But one thing has come in the way of that: Syria. The trouble country is right on Turkey's border, making it an existential concern for Ankara, and has been taken as a key factor in Putin's global politics, meaning Moscow takes it seriously as well. And here's the crux: Even though both the countries claim to be against the Islamic State, they're actually on opposite sides of this conflict.
Where does Russia stand?
As part of its positioning against NATO hegemony, Moscow has sought to make common cause with nations that are willing to oppose the broader consensus in Western Europe and the United States. This happens to include both Iran and Syria. Putin is a staunch ally of the administration in Tehran and has frequently expressed his support for Assad.
Moscow doesn't like the mishmash of soft Islamicist groups that have been trying to bring down Assad's government and opposes the Islamic State as well. Its recent campaign of airstrikes, ostensibly against the Islamic State, has in fact also involved bombing other Syrian rebels to strengthen Assad's position.
Where does Turkey stand?
Ankara has been a critic of Assad ever since the uprising began and has made common cause with many of the rebellious groups that have sought to bring the Syrian administration down. This includes the Islamic State itself, with a number of jihadists who would join ISIS actually getting shelter and even funds in Turkish territory. Ankara's biggest concern has been a strengthening of the Kurdish fighters in the region, who are seen as a threat because of Turkey's own Kurdish question and its insecurity about a Kurdistan.
Turkey wants to fight back against ISIS, while also getting rid of Assad and preventing any empowerment of Kurdish forces, who in fact have been most successful against the Islamic State.
Why are Russian planes straying into Turkey?
Turkey has for some time now been demanding a safe zone in the north of Syria. This would give a base to the Sunni opposition to Assad, reduce the refugee flow out of the country but also make it harder for Assad to think about staying in power. Russia has seen what safe zones like this can do: Similar ones were established as a defensive measure over Libya, but they quickly became an excuse for the West to bring down Muammar Gaddafi's regime, which had been allied with Moscow.
To pre-empt any thought of safe zones, Russia has been showing that it is not afraid to have its war planes operate literally on the edge. Earlier this week, Ankara summoned the Russian ambassador to complain about Russian jets straying into Turkish territory, in what most believe was Moscow's way of telling Turkey that it cannot "seize" territory in Syria. Neither side seems to have come to a happy conclusion, prompting Russian jets to allegedly stray across the border and get shot down.
What now?
War is unlikely, yet Putin's statement about being stabbed in the back and his pointed mention of Turkey's connections to ISIS suggest things are just beginning. NATO and the UN Security Council getting involved will slow down processes in a positive way, forcing some careful consideration rather than hasty action, but the same problem that Syria has faced all along still remains: There's no easy way for this to end.
