Towering landfills are testament to poor waste segregation practices in India that have persisted for decades. But India’s mounting, untreated waste is a problem whose consequences go beyond its borders. A new study estimating waste leakage into aquatic environments finds India is at risk of being one of the top contributors to this global problem, with untreated municipal solid waste to blame.

Millions of people depend on India’s vast river systems for their survival. India’s rivers also support 18% of the world’s population of unique aquatic animals and plants, according to the Wildlife Institute of India.

But a little over half of India’s 603 rivers were found to be polluted by the Central Pollution Control Board in 2022. This pollution is not only a threat to domestic public health and biodiversity, but is adding to the global burden of waste leakage into water bodies.

A new study by researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis estimates that in 2020, municipal solid waste from India contributed to 10% of waste leakage to the world’s rivers, adjusting for policy measures that were in place till 2018. “It isn’t a surprising or unlikely static. There are multiple studies which find that India has high rates of mismanaged waste,” said Shrotik Bose, Research Associate Centre for Science and Environment.

The government has spent Rs 13,000 crore on cleaning the Ganga river alone, but these efforts have largely come to naught. A 2019 assessment by the Quality Council of India found that more than 70% of towns along the Ganga were directly disposing their waste into the river, because they lacked proper municipal waste plants. More than 38,000 million litres of waste water enter Indian rivers due to lack of sewage treatment plants and improper waste disposal mechanisms.

India currently accounts for 17% of the world’s scattered municipal waste, according to the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis study. Without a circular waste management system, India’s contribution to waste leakage into rivers will continue to increase.

The paper suggests establishing a global treaty with standardised frameworks for municipal solid waste disposal. “A global treaty can ensure that countries adhere to consistent standards and practices, reducing the risk of waste transfer,” Adriana Gomez Sanabria, a researcher with the institute and lead author of the paper, told Mongabay India over email.

“While improving state capacity is crucial and can have a significant impact at the national level, the interconnected nature of waste leakage and its global consequences make a global treaty a more comprehensive and effective solution,” Gomez Sanabria added.

Solid waste from cities

The study is among the first to use the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways to project leakages from municipal solid waste. At the baseline, which adjusts for policies up to 2018, the study projects that 78 million tonnes of scattered municipal waste entered rivers in 2020. Together, India, Africa, China, South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean account for 80% of this leakage, and India’s contribution alone is 10%.

A majority of the leakage comes from urban areas – 70% – while the rest comes from rural areas, on account of “lack of regulations and implementation, low collection rates, high transportation costs and lack of diversified municipal solid waste technologies,” says the study.

The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways scenarios are used to characterise possible future development pathways for human societies. In a scenario where the obstacles described above no longer exist, India, Africa, China, South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean will benefit the most, and will contribute 88% reductions in scattered municipal solid waste compared to the baseline by 2030.

In the business-as-usual scenario, where the adoption of circular waste management practices is slow, economic development is moderate and inequalities persist, around 35 million tonnes of municipal solid waste is still at high risk to end up in aquatic environments in 2040, and “95% of the expected MSW leakage in aquatic environments in 2040 will potentially happen in South Asia, China, Africa, LCAM, and India. China and South Asia alone will account for around 55% of the total leakage.”

Scenarios where population growth is high, but urbanisation slow, “India and China will even face an increase of leakage into rivers due to the growth of rural population living close (up to 1 km) to water courses in 2025,” the study projects.

“Our results demonstrate that the reduction of scattered municipal solid waste can only be achieved by implementing integrated strategies in a holistic way in the municipal solid waste sector rather than solely focusing on one stream (eg, plastics) or one strategy (eg, recycling), thereby avoiding potential rebound effects of measures targeting specific streams (eg, increase of paper cups replacing single-use plastic cups),” says the study.

The use of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways to project future waste management, however, is limited. “Using the SSPS to project waste generation and disposal provides a general pathway that does not fully capture specific nuances and additional local factors and traditions that may influence waste generation. They are based on population, economic and technological developments and do not consider changes or potential events, like political unrest, that can influence the generation or management of waste,” said Gomez Sanabria.

Municipal waste in India

India generates 1,52,245 metric tonnes of municipal solid waste per day, of which around 75% is processed, according to the government of India. Municipal solid waste generally includes household, commercial, biomedical, and construction and demolition waste.

The Solid Waste Management Rules make it mandatory for waste to be segregated at source and for state governments to ensure regulations are followed. A high proportion of municipal solid waste in India has biodegradable components which are not segregated, leading to mounting mixed waste with low calorific value that cannot be incinerated, and is sent to dumpsites and landfills.

Swachh Bharat Mission 2.0 was launched in 2021 with the aim of “achieving Garbage Free Status for all cities through 100% source segregation, door to door collection and scientific management of all fractions of waste including safe disposal in scientific landfills” – all by 2026.

“Urban local bodies that invest in capacity building and awareness to ensure source segregation of waste fare much better when it comes to overall waste management. This is the most basic step of waste management, which is often overlooked to favour flashy technological solutions like waste-to-energy plants,” said Bose, adding, “The benchmarks for the Swachh Bharat Mission 2.0 are unlikely to be met in time, especially with the current infrastructure we have in place.”

Apart from improving state capacity to process municipal solid waste, a global standardised framework “can support the monitoring of MSW [municipal solid waste] generation, composition, and flows, and follow up the implementation of actions (including political, economic, and technological measures) targeted to the reduction of MSW and improvement of waste management systems,” says the IIASA study.

“A standardised framework will reduce the uncertainty of the assessments and will provide better knowledge and information to develop strategies to tackle the MSW crises. This framework can also contribute to monitor the progress of the circular economy regarding availability and flows of secondary materials,” it adds.

This article was first published on Mongabay.