What explains the spurt in militant violence in Jammu and Kashmir?

In the early hours of November 2, a fierce gunfight broke out between security forces and a Pakistani militant in a dense locality in Srinagar.

The day-long encounter in Khanyar eventually ended with the killing of the foreign militant who was identified by police as a commander of the Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group.

This was the first gunfight in Srinagar city in over two years. The same day, another encounter broke out in south Kashmir’s Anantnag district, in which two militants were killed.

The swearing-in of an elected government in Jammu and Kashmir has been accompanied by a worrying uptick in violence.

At least 11 civilians, including six migrant workers, have been killed in multiple attacks by militants in Kashmir Valley in the weeks after the Omar Abdullah government took office.

Significantly, while experts had flagged a shift of militancy from to the Jammu region in the last 12 months, this round of violence appears to be focussed on the Kashmir Valley.

The deadliest attack came on October 20 when militants attacked a tunnel construction site in central Kashmir’s Ganderbal district, killing seven civilians, including a local doctor, working at the site.

While Bharatiya Janata Party leaders have sought to draw a link between the renewed violence and the new government, National Conference leaders have questioned if there is a “design” in the failure of the security establishment – which remains under the control of the Lieutenant Governor – to check militancy.

However, security experts told Scroll that the answers are not that simple.

‘Who’s doing it?’

On November 2, when the encounter in Srinagar’s Khanyar area was on, National Conference president Farooq Abdullah demanded a probe into who is behind the increasing incidents of violence in Jammu and Kashmir.

“Why wasn’t there a spurt in gunfights before the government formation?” Abdullah asked. “There should be an independent probe to find out who is doing it.”

The senior National Conference leader also demanded that the militant holed up in the Khanyar encounter should not be killed but arrested to question him. “They should be arrested to find out whether there is a task to destabilise the Omar Abdullah-led government. Tourism is thriving and people are doing their routine business. Militancy was at its lowest, that’s why I am demanding a probe,” Abdullah said.

However, a senior police official in Kashmir, denied any link between the rise in militant attacks with the formation of an elected government in the union territory.

“It appears the militants were deliberately silent given the public support to have elections in Jammu and Kashmir,” the officer said, speaking off the record. “They did not want to disturb elections because people wanted to participate in it. It feels strategic and tactical on their part.”

A second police officer shared a similar observation. “During the elections, the security grid was extremely vigilant and alert. That made it difficult for them to act,” he added.

However, given the months-long lull in Kashmir Valley, it was predictable on the part of militants to show their presence. “Terrorists have to show that they exist and they work on orders from across the border. From their point of view, prolonged silence on their part brings a lot of pressure on them. Once they get a go ahead to disturb peace, they act on it,” the second police officer added.

Blast in Srinagar

The attacks also suggest that militants are trying to shift the theatre of violence back to Kashmir from Jammu. “In the past few years or even early this year, most of the attacks on security forces and civilians took place in Jammu. That appears to be changing,” said the first police officer.

Take the case of Srinagar city. A day after the Khanyar encounter, militants lobbed a grenade in Srinagar’s crowded Sunday flea market resulting in the injuries to 12 civilians.

One of the injured succumbed to her injuries on Tuesday. On November 8, Jammu and Kashmir police announced that three local militants from Srinagar had been arrested for their role in the grenade attack.

According to VK Birdi, who is the inspector-general of police, Kashmir zone, the trio carried out the attack at the behest of Pakistani handlers.

Militants have also shown their presence at multiple places in North Kashmir.

In November, security forces carried out at least six anti-militancy operations in three districts - Baramulla, Bandipora and Kupwara - of North Kashmir in which five militants were gunned down.

The Line of Control, that divides Jammu and Kashmir between the Indian side of Kashmir and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, touches all the three districts of North Kashmir.

Security officials in the valley attribute the growing number of encounters with militants in North Kashmir, to the onset of winter. “As the winter sets in, the militants who mostly hide in the mountainous terrain have to come down because of snow,” said the second senior police official. “This is also the time when Pakistan tries to send as many militants as it can from across the border because the infiltration routes are then buried under heavy snow and it’s difficult to cross.”

Tight spot for LG administration

The toll of civilian killings has already reached 26 this year. Last year, 12 civilians had been killed in different incidents of militant violence in Jammu and Kashmir.

The escalation in militant violence complicates the position of the Lieutenant Governor administration.

That’s primarily because the Centre has made much political capital of the decline in militancy since 2019 – and explained it as a consequence of the scrapping of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status.

In an interview with Scroll last week, National Conference Member of Parliament from Srinagar, Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, said that he saw a “design” behind the increase in violence … to destabilise the mandate of the people and come up with excuses to not restore statehood as directed by the Supreme Court.”

Such a perception has been also fuelled by the utterances of the local Bharatiya Janata party leadership in Jammu and Kashmir. On October 24, BJP’s general secretary for Jammu and Kashmir, Ashok Koul had said that the final call about restoration of statehood for Jammu and Kashmir will be taken only after the Ganderbal-type [attack at the tunnel construction site] attacks stop.

A political commentator in Srinagar, who asked to remain anonymous, said any disturbance in law and order in Jammu and Kashmir is an “issue” for the LG administration than the elected government. “Whether the escalation is by design or natural, the LG administration is bound to face some tough questions from the elected government,” he said.

From the larger point of view, the spurt in violence also underlines the challenge of the unresolved Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan. “We believe that civic elections for governance are no means to resolve this matter (Kashmir issue) and do not represent people’s aspirations and sentiments with regard to the conflict,” separatist leader and Hurriyat chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq said last month following the first Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir after a decade.

He also said he is ready to engage with New Delhi. “Hurriyat talked to Vajpayee saab to Manmohan Singh ji … and is always ready to engage with the current dispensation in New Delhi,” Mirwaiz said while addressing a massive Friday congregation in Srinagar’s Jamia Masjid on October 25.

“There has been too much bloodshed in Kashmir to allow it to continue,” Mirwaiz said while condemning the death of civilians in the recent acts of violence in the Union territory.