Earlier this year, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led government faced a crisis in Jharkhand as its leader, Hemant Soren, stepped down from the chief minister’s post and was jailed on corruption charges.

But by Saturday evening, as counting for the state assembly election headed to a close, the JMM seemed to have bounced back. The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance government that the JMM leads in Jharkhand looked set to return for a second term in power, with an even larger mandate.

As of 7 pm, the JMM had won 29 of the total 81 seats in the assembly and was leading in five seats. Of its INDIA alliance parthers, the Indian National Congress had won 15 seats and was leading in one. The Rashtriya Janata Dal had won four seats, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation) had won two seats.

It looked set to win at least 56 seats, up from 47 in the 2019 election.

Meanwhile, of the National Democratic Alliance partners, the Bharatiya Janata Party had won 19 seats and was leading in two seats. The All Jharkhand Students Union Party had won one seat as had the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).

Jairam Mahato, a candidate who had emerged as a crowd favourite, was victorious in the Dumri constituency. He was the sole winner from the Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha.

Political observers predicted that the election would be closely fought. However, the JMM-led coalition government seems to have strategically navigated its crises and pushed a number of welfare schemes to win over voters and secure a comfortable majority.

Here are eight factors that stood out on the ground.

1. Soren’s imprisonment was an affront to Adivasi pride

Chief Minister Hemant Soren was imprisoned in January on charges that he had fraudulently acquired land and got bail only five months later. The party soon made the matter a poll issue. It presented the Adivasi chief minister’s imprisonment as an affront to the pride of the Adivasis, who form 26.21% of the state’s population and are a significant vote bank for the JMM. Political analysts believe this is also what led the BJP to lose all five seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year. (The state has a total of 14 Lok Sabha seats.)

2. Direct Benefit Transfer scheme for women

The JMM-led government focused heavily on a number of welfare schemes. Its flagship scheme was the Maiya Samman Yojana, launched in August. It gives Rs 1,000 per month to women between the ages of 21 and 50. In October, to counter this scheme, the BJP had announced that it would launch the Gogo Didi scheme if it came to power, and promised Rs 2,100 to all women in the state. The JMM was quick to counter this move and pledged to raise the amount to Rs 2,500 from December if it returned to power.

3. Improvement of pension scheme

In 2019, the JMM-led government introduced reforms to the Central government’s pension scheme, the National Social Assistance Programme, which had been underfunded for years. The Centre’s pension amounts ranged between Rs 200 and Rs 500 for three categories – old age pension, widow pension and disability pension. The Jharkhand government increased this amount to a uniform Rs 1,000, and created five categories of pension schemes – old age pension, Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group pension, destitute women pension, HIV-AIDS patient pension and disability pension. It also expanded the scheme’s reach from 6 lakh people in 2019 to 40 lakh people by 2024.

4. Electricity bills waiver

Another welfare policy that won the approval of voters, especially the rural poor, was the state government’s decision to waive electricity bills for low-income consumers who do not pay income tax. In August, the state government decided to waive bills amounting to Rs 3,584 crore for around 39.44 lakh consumers who are enrolled in its 200-unit free electricity scheme.

5. State housing scheme

Despite the existence of the Central government’s Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana to provide subsidised housing for low-income citizens, around 8 lakh eligible beneficiaries in the state did not avail of the scheme. In October 2023, the JMM-led government launched the Abua Awas Yojna to reach these residents. While the Central government scheme pays up to Rs 1.5 lakh for the construction of a two-room house with a kitchen, the Jharkhand government’s scheme provides Rs 2 lakh for a three-room house with a kitchen.

6. No clear BJP CM face

Political analysts note that while senior BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, campaigned for the party in the state, there was a lack of clarity about who would occupy the chief minister’s post if the party won. One contender was former chief minister Babulal Marandi, the BJP’s state president. Another was former chief minister Champai Soren, who defected from the JMM earlier this year. Both these leaders are Adivasi, and thus declaring either as the chief ministerial candidate would have been in line with the state’s broad history – six of its seven chief ministers have been Adivasi.

However, in 2014, the BJP had appointed Raghubar Das, a non-Adivasi, as the state’s chief minister, a move that political observers believe played a role in their loss in the 2019 election. The absence of a chief ministerial candidate allowed speculation to grow about whom the party might appoint if it won. By contrast, for the JMM-led alliance, the incumbent chief minister Hemant Soren was the unambiguous choice to continue in the job.

7. Over-reliance on non-Jharkhandi leaders

The BJP’s election campaign was dominated by national-level leaders, including Prime Minister Modi, Home Minister Shah and union ministers Shivraj Singh Chouhan and JP Nadda. Assam’s Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma was also a prominent face at rallies. This meant that Jharkhandi leaders such as Babulal Marandi, Champai Soren and Sita Soren remained in the background. This strategy is believed to have alienated Jharkhandi voters who, in assembly elections, are primarily concerned with state leaders.

8. BJP’s infiltrator narrative failed

The BJP’s key focus this election was on the infiltrator narrative – party leaders alleged that Bangladeshi Muslims had infiltrated Jharkhand’s Santal Pargana division, married Adivasi women, grabbed land and altered the region’s demography and cultural identity. However, this narrative did not seem to gain much traction.

Earlier this year, Scroll travelled to Santal Pargana and found that in at least 10 instances, the BJP’s claims of Muslims marrying Advasi women to claim land did not stand scrutiny. Later, in our election coverage, we found that Adivasi voters were more concerned with civic issues than the threat of infiltrators.

The JMM was quick to respond to the allegations by noting that Jharkhand did not share borders with Bangladesh and that the Central home ministry headed by Amit Shah was responsible for preventing illegal migration into the country.