On December 23, a rare protest was held outside the Srinagar residence of Chief Minister Omar Abdullah. In the bone-chilling cold, scores of young men and women descended on Gupkar Road – home to Kashmir’s powerful bureaucrats and politicians.
The call for the demonstration had come from Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, the member of Parliament from Srinagar.
Ruhullah was lending his weight to ongoing protests against changes in Jammu and Kashmir’s reservation policy announced last year by the Lieutenant Governor-led administration.
But, in doing so, he was also staging a protest against his own government – Ruhullah is a member of the National Conference, the party recently voted in by the people of Jammu and Kashmir.
This is not the first time that Ruhullah has taken a position that is at odds with his party in the last five years.
Ever since the Narendra Modi government scrapped Article 370 of the Constitution in August 2019 and downsized Jammu and Kashmir into a union territory, Ruhullah has fiercely advocated fighting for the restoration of special status and autonomy. His party, however, has ostensibly prioritised getting back statehood.
A day after the protest, a National Conference leader lashed out. “If grievances truly needed redressal, there were better ways to address them,” Salman Ali Sagar, an elected legislator from Srinagar’s Hazratbal assembly segment, told reporters. He took objection to the presence of opposition leaders in the protest. “It was a gathering of our adversaries, of our enemies. Unfortunately, one of our MPs was present there.”
But political observers in Kashmir are reluctant to read the developments as an unambiguous sign of dissent within the party. They argue that Ruhullah’s strident stand on many issues might be a way for the National Conference to strike a balance between keeping New Delhi happy and the Kashmiri sentiment, which is in favour of restoration of autonomy. “If this is being done at the party level with mutual understanding, then it could be a strategy,” said former professor of political science at Kashmir University, Noor Ahmad Baba.
The reservation protest
In March last year, the union territory administration announced a new reservation policy which increased the share of reserved categories to 60% of jobs and seats in educational institutions. That has left 69% of the population in Jammu and Kashmir – those who do not belong to Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribe and OBC groups – disadvantaged.
In November, the newly elected government led by Abdullah constituted a sub-committee to review the reservation policy. At the time, Ruhullah said he would give the committee a month to come up with a solution. “I urged everyone to wait until December 22 to give the elected government time to address this issue. I also said that if the matter was not resolved by then, I would join you in protest outside the HCM’s residence or office,” Ruhullah said in a social media post.
A day after his deadline, he was on the streets outside the CM’s home. He was joined by Waheed Ur Rehman Parra and Iltija Mufti, leaders of the Peoples Democratic Party, a party that has recently taken a more adversarial stand against the Bharatiya Janata Party-ruled central government. Also present was independent legislator Sheikh Khursheed, who is the brother of Baramulla MP Engineer Rashid.
The National Conference’s top leadership, including the Abdullahs, have not commented on Ruhullah’s protest and blunt utterances. Nor has the party officially responded to it.
A popular leader
Ruhullah’s firebrand politics, as a political observer in Srinagar had pointed out to Scroll earlier, represents an “alternate voice – the voice of the people. He is a force that is keeping even the party on tenterhooks.”
In a region where speaking out against the Centre resonates with large sections of the people, Ruhullah’s aggressive position against the Bharatiya Janata Party-led central government appeals to a Kashmiri constituency.
But the party has also benefited from the goodwill that his vocal opposition to New Delhi has generated. Last year, Ruhullah, a former legislator was given a mandate by the party to contest his first Lok Sabha election. Contesting from Srinagar parliamentary seat, Ruhullah won by a margin of nearly 2 lakh votes.
In the recent Assembly elections, the widespread anger against the BJP in Kashmir Valley over the August 2019 decision had led almost all major political players to promise voters to take on the Centre if voted to power.
“Ruhullah was a star campaigner for the National Conference in the recent elections, which in a way supported his firm stand by projecting him or what he stood for, as the party’s stand,” said the political observer in Srinagar, who requested not to be identified.
The strategy worked for the National Conference, which won a comprehensive mandate in Kashmir Valley.
Ruhullah’s confrontational politics could indicate differences within the National Conference – or a “calculated posturing”, the political observer in Srinagar said.
The party has attempted such a balance before. “If you remember, even 20 years ago, it was Mustafa Kamal [a senior NC leader] who would issue very strong statements against Delhi in Kashmir. Then Omar Abdullah would play to the gallery at the Centre and Farooq Abdullah would then somewhat moderate the two positions,” he said.
Confrontation or cooperation?
In October, Jammu and Kashmir got its first elected government after six years – a period in which the erstwhile state went through tumultuous changes.
In the three months of being in power, the National Conference has not taken radical steps to fulfill promises it had made to voters – from restoring special status and statehood, jobs and free electricity up to 200 units.
The two main decisions taken by the Omar Abdullah government relate to the change of academic calendar in schools and relaxation in the upper age limit for general category candidates appearing for combined competitive examinations of the union territory.
Neither has it come up with any tangible decisions on matters like reservation, the promise of one lakh jobs, the repeal of the preventive detention law, the Public Safety Act, the end of summary termination of employees and the transfer of hydro power projects to Jammu and Kashmir.
The Lieutenant Governor administration, which enjoys key powers and functions within the union territory setup, meanwhile, has not backed down.
In November, Jammu and Kashmir Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha ordered the termination of two government employees for their alleged terror links. This was in total contradiction to the assurance of the elected government which had promised to review terminations of government employees during the Centre’s rule in Jammu and Kashmir.
While much of what Abdullah’s government has been unable to do can be attributed to the limited powers of an elected government in the union territory, he has not tried to antagonise New Delhi. “Omar is operating carefully. He is still hopeful that he can get things through reconciliation, peace and cooperation with the centre,” said former professor Noor Ahmad Baba.
As head of a government dealing with the Centre, Omar Abdullah cannot afford to take the position espoused by Ruhullah. “As far as Omar’s job is concerned, he has to balance because he has to run the party and as well the government,” he added. “Compared to him, Ruhullah may be giving vent to ideas on his own or out of his personal conviction. But, if he is trying to cultivate his own image to safeguard his own constituency, it doesn’t help the government.”
Not surprisingly, its rivals such as the Peoples Democratic Party have tried to corner the National Conference government for its “soft stand” on Delhi. “The NC has got a mandate to restore what was snatched from the people of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, not buy peace and reconciliation by gifting Kashmiri shawls to the leaders at the centre,” PDP leader Waheed Parra has said.
But the election results indicate that parties like the PDP have limited wriggle room in the Valley.
“As the National Conference has risen to power on an anti-Centre sentiment, the majority of Kashmiris opposed to the Centre have consolidated behind the party,” said the Srinagar-based political commentator. “That leaves very little scope for opposition parties like PDP to corner NC.”
More importantly, with Ruhullah also targeting the ruling party, the opportunity for the Opposition to occupy the anti-Delhi space might shrink further, he added. “Only the National Conference’s failure to get back anything from the Centre might enable PDP to resurrect itself. It all depends upon how much the National Conference is able to deliver.”
Not a long-term strategy
While the two different stands espoused by the party and its outspoken Member of Parliament may or may not be part of a strategy, the Srinagar-based political commentator believes such a contradiction cannot last for a long time. “The only question is for how long and within what limits. And more importantly, till how long will people take it seriously or believe in this sort of politics?”
How much the elected government will be able to achieve or deliver within the confines of Delhi’s overarching writ may also force a rethink in National Conference’s strategy.
“Maybe a time will come where Omar Abdullah is also forced into a sort of confrontation with New Delhi because he is not able to deliver,” said Baba. “If this frustration continues, and he is not able to get something, maybe he will also change his strategy in the long run.”
