Why ‘strong-arm’ tactics have not improved Manipur’s chances of peace after a month of central rule

On February 13, after 21 months of a fierce ethnic conflict, the Narendra Modi government finally imposed President’s rule in Manipur.

Its hand had been forced by the resignation of Chief Minister Biren Singh, the Meitei leader accused of playing a partisan role in the civil-war like situation in Manipur that has left over 260 dead and 70,000 displaced since May 2023.

The Union Home Ministry under Amit Shah took control of the state.

The administration made two big announcements. First, a call to both Meiteis and Kuki-Zos to surrender 6,000 arms looted from the state’s armouries in the initial days of the violence. Second, a push for “free movement” through the state. Months of violence has led to a partition along ethnic lines, with each community keeping to its own territory.

But a month later, observers told Scroll, the steps have not brought Manipur any closer to peace or Meiteis and Kuki-Zos near rapprochement.

Only about 1,000 weapons were surrendered during the two-week amnesty for returning looted and illegal weapons, even as sophisticated arms are still at large.

Worse, the central government’s decision to open the highways through a proposed bus service led to violence flaring up again on March 8.

Since then, Kuki-Zo groups have enforced a total shutdown on the highways, with not even commercial vehicles allowed to enter the valley from the hill districts. “The trust deficit between communities remains and the scars are very deep,” a senior Army official told Scroll.

A rights activist from Manipur said the Centre is taking a “very law-and-order approach, a muscular approach” to the conflict, rather than trying to bridge the gap between warring groups. “Moreover, the power structures which were operating during Biren’s regime are not completely gone yet,” he said.

Valley vs hills: Contrasting responses

Manipur has been put under President’s rule several times. It is a deeply unpopular idea, especially in the Imphal valley.

But the response seems to be different this time. “For the first time in Manipur’s history, people are celebrating,” a Meitei academic said. “Those who were once vocal against central rule are now happy with it as it got rid of Biren Singh and [the Meitei armed group] Arambai Tenggol,” a Meitei academic said.

An Imphal resident told Scroll that a month of direct rule by the Centre has “brought a sense of security” and relief from the harassment of groups like the Arambai Tenggol.

He spoke from experience. In December 2023, he had been picked up and assaulted by the Arambai Tenngol cadre. “People have been threatened, extorted and beaten up,” he said. “They did whatever they wanted and got away with it. I am strongly against President’s rule, but it has given an opportunity to people to speak up. The militia don’t have the power to represent Manipur anymore now.”

Political scientist Kham Khan Suan Hausing, however, argued that substantive change was still not evident.

“The last one month of President's rule in Manipur seems to have sent a political signal to the armed groups that no further escalation of violence will be allowed,” he said. “But the fact that the Centre continues to be seen to be soft on proscribed Meitei armed groups and vigilante organisations does not augur well for building trust and legitimacy of the Indian state.”

An editor with an Imphal daily echoed his view. “Incidents of violence have come down but there is no indication that a middle ground has been found at all," he said.

The removal of Biren Singh and imposition of President’s rule were among the key demands of Kuki-Zo groups in the hills. But in negotiations with the Centre, they are unwilling to shift their focus from the call for a separate administration. As a result, the Centre’s move to open up the highways, without holding consultations, has antagonised them.

Two national highways, which allow essential supplies into Manipur, are close to Kuki-Zo territory. National Highway 2, which is critical to the Imphal Valley, passes through the Kuki-majority Kangpokpi district.

Kuki-Zo groups have often used the roads as pressure points.

Janghaolun Haokip of Kuki Inpi Manipur, the apex body of Kuki tribes, told Scroll that “allowing free movement would be tantamount to accepting peace arrangements without a political settlement”. “When the government fails to listen to our grievances and demands, the highway is crucial leverage,” he explained.

So, when Union Home Minister Amit Shah directed local officials to enable “free movement” on National Highway 2, Kuki-Zo groups reacted sharply, warning that “peace cannot be imposed”.

“The government's decision reflects a lack of sensitivity towards the ongoing conflict and the heightened emotions of the Kuki-Zo people,” the Kuki-Zo Council said in a statement.

A bus service, a clash

Despite these misgivings, on March 8, the government went ahead. It flagged off Manipur State Transport buses on two crucial routes – from Imphal to Churachandpur, and from Imphal to the Naga-majority Senapati district via Kangpokpi, the hill district where Kuki-Zos live.

That morning, hundreds of Kuki-Zo women gathered at Gamgiphai, one of the many buffer zones on National Highway 2 that connects Kangpokpi to Imphal valley.

“When the bus arrived, the women tried to stop it,” Onngam Haokip, who was at the spot, told Scroll from Kangpokpi. “But the security forces intervened, leading to clashes and stone pelting. They started to fire teargas and opened fire.”

Onngam’s relative, Thangjangam Haokip, was with him when he was hit by “bullets”. The doctor at Motbung primary health centre, Neipichong Doungel, told Scroll that Thangjangam had “multiple pellet injuries”. “We removed around 18 to 20 small pellets from the back of his head, right arm and back,” Doungel said. “They are hard and the size of mustard seeds.”

When Scroll asked a senior Manipur police official if pellet guns were used on the protestors, he did not confirm or deny the allegation.

The bus crossed Gamgiphai, but met with even more resistance at Keithelmanbi Military Colony, with hundreds of Kuki-Zo people blocking the road with stones and logs. Clashes broke out, the security forces opened fire, leading to the death of a 25-year-old man, Lalgouthang Singsit. The protestors also burnt down two vehicles of the security forces.

In Kangpokpi, protestors said they could not allow the highways to be opened. “The conflict has not ended,” Onngam said. “What if Meiteis come to attack us?”

Sasang Kipgen, a Kuki youth leader at Keithelmanbi, told Scroll: “Without any political agreement and negotiations between the two communities, they just tried to enter our area by force in the name of free movement. They are taking advantage of President’s Rule. But nothing has changed.”

‘Not a wise move’

Members of both Meitei and Kuki-Zomi-Hmar communities criticised the haste with which the bus service was pushed through.

“It was not a wise move by the Centre to open the highways without consulting Kuki groups just because it had a larger political goal,” the Meitei academic told Scroll from Imphal. “The BJP government has an old relationship with Kuki MLAs and militant groups who have signed a pact with Delhi. Why don’t they tap into that?”

A call for a march to the hills by the Federation of Civil Societies, a collective of Meitei organisations, also led to anxiety in the hills. “The group is playing an agent provocateur’s role,” a Meitei rights-activist told Scroll. “It was immature, untimely and plain stupid at this point in time for them to have called this rally.”

The Meitei academic quoted above alleged that the collective was backed by a valley-based insurgent group that enjoyed tacit support from the former CM Biren Singh.

Though the march was stopped in Imphal, it escalated the anger in the hills.

“Why could not the security forces under the command of the governor halt the FOCS rally before it began?” an activist from the Zomi tribe told Scroll. “The current administration is allowing the provocation of one community by another community. Even though the structure of government has changed, things have remained the same on the ground.”

No space for dialogue

Observers from the state said that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s interventions in Manipur appear to be geared more towards the “optics” of normalcy than working towards negotiations that can lead to peace.

They pointed out that the Centre still has not created a platform for consultation with all groups, nor a space for a dialogue.

“This is strong-arm tactics,” the Meitei rights activist said. “Sometimes, it is needed to break an impasse. But in the long run, it has to be one component among how you deal with people's aspirations, people’s needs and their own sense of justice.”

The Zomi activist argued that “peace can’t be enforced but has to be cultivated through justice and fairness by reintroducing the rule of law.”

Political scientist Hausing pointed out that the Union home ministry’s refusal to “grant a separate administration suggests that the Centre will continue to manage the state as a 'law and order' problem, which may not be particularly helpful in establishing durable peace in the long run”.

The question of the displaced

For thousands of displaced in relief camps across the state, President’s rule has brought little succour. “There is no marked improvement in how they are treating the internally displaced people, who are the worst victims,” said the rights activist.

KK Chanu, a 21-year-old woman who lives in a relief camp in Moirang, a foothill town between Churachandpur and Bishnupur, told Scroll that the break in violence was welcome.

“It is a bit silent unlike those chaotic days,” she said. “Not much violence, no strikes. But till when do we have to stay in relief camps? When will there be peace and when can we have a home again?”

Chanu’s house in Churachandpur had been demolished in the violence of May 2023. “If President’s rule had been imposed earlier, many young men and women would have been holding their books instead of guns,” she said.