“The only thing straight in Kashmir are the poplar trees.” That was what Brajesh Mishra, a former Research and Analysis Wing official and senior diplomat, once observed. Like many statements about Kashmir, it is layered – dark, ironic, and unsettlingly accurate.

Tuesday’s attack in Pahalgam that left 26 dead and 17 injured wasn’t just another act of violence. It was one of the first large-scale attacks in Jammu and Kashmir targeting tourists.

In the three years since the abrogation of Article 370 that gave Jammu and Kashmir a special status under the Indian Constitution, the region has seen attacks on labourers from other states. Often, these killings have been followed by claims that the victims were new settlers in the Valley and the violence was a message warning against demographic change.

But killing tourists touches new depths.

Why does tourism matter so much?

On any given day, over a hundred flights land and take off from Srinagar Airport. Last year, more than 2.3 crore tourists visited the Valley. In a region battling chronic unemployment (Jammu and Kashmir recorded a jobless rate of 11.8% for the October to December 2024 period compared to the national average of 6.4%), those visits meant everything.

It was not just about revenue. Tourism affords livelihoods and dignity to over 70,000 people in Jammu and Kashmir. Cab drivers. Shawl sellers. Owners of eateries. Hotel staff. Ponywalas. Trekking guides. The man selling kahwa at the edge of a snow trail. Tourism didn’t just bring visitors into the territory – it kept residents afloat.

In 2024, the industry generated over Rs 8,000 crore, according to the Tourism Department – nearly double its value just eight years ago.

Places like Pahalgam, Gulmarg, Sonmarg, even the lesser-known corners of the Valley, were finally finding their moment. Residents were optimistic, hopeful even, about an economy that, for once, was not entirely being shaped by politics or conflict.

That’s what makes the Pahalgam attack feel like a turning point. It’s about the message. If even tourism is no longer safe, what’s left that isn’t touched by fear?

Ideal target

Baisaran was an ideal target, for both its vulnerability and its visibility.

Baisaran is the only spot in Pahalgam that is consistently flooded with tourists and yet remains non-motorable. It used to have a road, but when tourists began taking cabs uphill to the meadow, the local ponywalas protested.

Their argument was simple and valid: cabs were cutting into their only source of income. Eventually, cars were barred from going up, and the road was left to decay.

That meant that those injured in the attack had almost no chance of immediate help. Injured people have to be physically carried down a steep 2-km path. The nearest medical facility – a small hospital in Pahalgam – is not easily reachable in an emergency.

That is not coincidence. That’s planning.

Then there’s geography. Baisaran is nestled deep inside a forest belt, and at the back opens into dense, unbroken forest trails that stretch toward Daksum – a remote region that eventually connects to Rajouri and, further on, the Pakistan border. This terrain, with its rugged undulating topography, is notoriously difficult to monitor.

Beyond drone surveillance, human presence in these areas is almost impossible. Over the last few months, official sources have detected the presence of over 12 militant groups, operating in small, nimble units.

The lack of roads and checkpoints means that if an attack occurs, the perpetrators can quickly vanish into the wilderness, almost impossible to track or intercept.

Why now?

Kashmir has been changing slowly but steadily. For once, not through slogans or speeches.

Pakistan, once the loudest voice on the Kashmir issue, had gone quiet. After the fall of Prime Minister Imran Khan, the army had lost much of its public support. There were barely any protests when they rigged the elections and installed Shahbaz Sharif as prime minister. Nobody was really paying attention anymore.

On the other side of the border, new connections are being constructed. The long-awaited Udhampur-Baramulla railway section is set to be launched. Despite an attack near a new tunnel at Gagangeer in October, it was inaugurated in January and the route is now being used. It connects Kashmir to the rest of India all year round.

The highway between Jammu and Srinagar is being rebuilt. The aim is to keep the road open year-round – not just for security, but to help tourism in both summer and winter.

Local militancy was at its lowest. Most of the radicalised youth had moved on. Many had taken loans, bought cabs and started working in tourism.

Tourism wasn’t just alive, it was booming. The sector’s share in the region’s economy rose to 8.5% in 2024 from 7.8% in 2019.

Hitting the tourism sector was the most direct way to disrupt this dynamic. This attack wasn’t random. It was meant to pull Kashmir back into fear, just when it had started moving forward.

Umar Sofi is an independent journalist based in Kashmir, with extensive experience in covering human rights and political issues.