On World Water Day a few days ago, the United Nations predicted that India will face a major water shortage by 2050, and that competition with its neighbours over the resource could escalate into conflict. The UN is only one of several credible organisations that have predicted doom and gloom for the world around the middle of the century.
In recent years, independent studies by outfits that do not necessarily work together believe that the world will become even more unsustainable over the next few decades.
Rather conveniently, many of these doomsday predictions converge around 2050. Perhaps that's because it is a round number that is sufficiently far away for people to believe they can reverse the previous 200 years of industrialisation. Thirty-six years from now, the effects of climate change are expected to crystallise further, and if predictions are to be believed, people who do not die prematurely of hunger and thirst could perish in a third world war predicted uncannily for some time this century.
Here are five organisations that believe India in 2050 will be an uncomfortable place to live if their studies, naturally based on a mixture of informed conjecture and fact, turn out to be correct.
1. National Institute of Demographic Studies
By Edmund Gall (Creative Commons).
A recent study by France's Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques projects that by 2050, India will be the most populous nation on earth. It will overtake China by 2030, at the current rate of growth, and will have around 1.5 billion people. Credit Suisse believes that 54 per cent of India will be living in cities by then, as jobs will be concentrated in urban, not rural areas. Therefore, more of the country will be occupied in consuming resources than in producing them. But cities are also expected to drive India’s industrial growth and Indians will be wealthier than ever before.
2. Indian Agriculture Research Institute (and the World Bank)
By Soham Banerjee (Creative Commons).
Even if Indians are rich, they will have to deal with higher temperatures, which will rise by 3.2 degrees centigrade by 2050, according to the Indian Agriculture Research Institute, leading to heat waves that could cause an even higher loss of life. Malaria and other viral diseases are likely to spread further in higher temperatures. There will be greater water shortages because of a scantier monsoon season, said a World Bank report that makes projections about the impact of higher temperatures on a variety of factors such as food, water, health, pollution, energy and rises in sea levels.
3. United Nation Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation
By Ankit Solanki (Creative Commons).
If India goes to war in 2050, it will probably be over a very basic need: water. The world’s water resources will be scarce by 2025, says a UNESCO report released on World Water Day last week, and over 40 per cent of the world’s population will be living under water stress. The situation, the report said, might devolve to the point where there could be conflicts over water resources.
“Areas of conflict include the Aral Sea, Ganges-Brahmaputra River, Indus River and Mekong River basins,” said the report. It also mentions that upcoming dams in China, namely the Zangmu Dam in Tibet, and three other dams scheduled to be built on the Brahmaputra, are likely to be causes for concern. Combined with the Earth System Sciences and Climate Change study that claims Himalayan glaciers will recede by 2035, drying up most of these rivers, the future is not moist for India.
4. Food and Agriculture Organisation
By Jesse (Creative Commons).
Thirst is not all Indians of 2050 will have to face. The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations suggests that while India’s overall demand for cereals might go down, its demand for dairy products, meat, sugar and oils will spike by 2050.
At the same time, India’s food production will decline by 11 per cent. Even though we now produce more than we eat, India’s total calorific consumption has never kept pace with its economic growth, leaving many to die of malnourishment. The FAO is singularly pessimistic about whether this will change by 2050, given that India is the only country to have seen such high and rapid growth without it reflecting in overall food consumption.
5. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
By Tawheed Manzoor (Creative Commons).
Even if this coming generation survives droughts, famines, heatwaves, and still finds a place to stay in an increasingly urbanised country, it cannot escape the air, which is scheduled to become the world’s “top environmental cause of premature mortality” just around 2050, according to a study by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Most deaths will occur, naturally, in India and China.
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In recent years, independent studies by outfits that do not necessarily work together believe that the world will become even more unsustainable over the next few decades.
Rather conveniently, many of these doomsday predictions converge around 2050. Perhaps that's because it is a round number that is sufficiently far away for people to believe they can reverse the previous 200 years of industrialisation. Thirty-six years from now, the effects of climate change are expected to crystallise further, and if predictions are to be believed, people who do not die prematurely of hunger and thirst could perish in a third world war predicted uncannily for some time this century.
Here are five organisations that believe India in 2050 will be an uncomfortable place to live if their studies, naturally based on a mixture of informed conjecture and fact, turn out to be correct.
1. National Institute of Demographic Studies
By Edmund Gall (Creative Commons).
A recent study by France's Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques projects that by 2050, India will be the most populous nation on earth. It will overtake China by 2030, at the current rate of growth, and will have around 1.5 billion people. Credit Suisse believes that 54 per cent of India will be living in cities by then, as jobs will be concentrated in urban, not rural areas. Therefore, more of the country will be occupied in consuming resources than in producing them. But cities are also expected to drive India’s industrial growth and Indians will be wealthier than ever before.
2. Indian Agriculture Research Institute (and the World Bank)
By Soham Banerjee (Creative Commons).
Even if Indians are rich, they will have to deal with higher temperatures, which will rise by 3.2 degrees centigrade by 2050, according to the Indian Agriculture Research Institute, leading to heat waves that could cause an even higher loss of life. Malaria and other viral diseases are likely to spread further in higher temperatures. There will be greater water shortages because of a scantier monsoon season, said a World Bank report that makes projections about the impact of higher temperatures on a variety of factors such as food, water, health, pollution, energy and rises in sea levels.
3. United Nation Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation
By Ankit Solanki (Creative Commons).
If India goes to war in 2050, it will probably be over a very basic need: water. The world’s water resources will be scarce by 2025, says a UNESCO report released on World Water Day last week, and over 40 per cent of the world’s population will be living under water stress. The situation, the report said, might devolve to the point where there could be conflicts over water resources.
“Areas of conflict include the Aral Sea, Ganges-Brahmaputra River, Indus River and Mekong River basins,” said the report. It also mentions that upcoming dams in China, namely the Zangmu Dam in Tibet, and three other dams scheduled to be built on the Brahmaputra, are likely to be causes for concern. Combined with the Earth System Sciences and Climate Change study that claims Himalayan glaciers will recede by 2035, drying up most of these rivers, the future is not moist for India.
4. Food and Agriculture Organisation
By Jesse (Creative Commons).
Thirst is not all Indians of 2050 will have to face. The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations suggests that while India’s overall demand for cereals might go down, its demand for dairy products, meat, sugar and oils will spike by 2050.
At the same time, India’s food production will decline by 11 per cent. Even though we now produce more than we eat, India’s total calorific consumption has never kept pace with its economic growth, leaving many to die of malnourishment. The FAO is singularly pessimistic about whether this will change by 2050, given that India is the only country to have seen such high and rapid growth without it reflecting in overall food consumption.
5. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
By Tawheed Manzoor (Creative Commons).
Even if this coming generation survives droughts, famines, heatwaves, and still finds a place to stay in an increasingly urbanised country, it cannot escape the air, which is scheduled to become the world’s “top environmental cause of premature mortality” just around 2050, according to a study by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Most deaths will occur, naturally, in India and China.
