In March, Arvind Kejriwal confidently proclaimed that his Aam Aadmi Party would win more than 100 seats and the government wouldn’t be formed without AAP’s help. So the party’s final tally of four wins from the 432 candidates it fielded must have been a disappointment.
AAP garnered just above 11 million votes, a little more than 2% of the total vote share. This is a commendable result for a new entrant in the national political fray, but insufficient for it to obtain the status of a national party. The bulk of AAP’s vote share – 54% of it – has been concentrated in the 20 constituencies of Delhi and Punjab. All its seats are from Punjab.
Dissatisfaction with AAP’s decision to resign from the Delhi government a mere 48 days after it gained power in December has been reflected to some extent in its performance in the Lok Sabha elections in the state. It trailed the Bharatiya Janata Party as a distant second in all Delhi constituencies by a minimum margin above one lakh votes.
The BJP swept Delhi clean, gaining 12% more votes than it did in the recent assembly elections.
However, AAP’s future may not be as bleak as it is painted to be. The fact that the party was able to finish second in Delhi and recorded an absolute increase of four lakh votes indicates a support base that can be leveraged if the party were to focus its efforts in the upcoming by-elections in Delhi.
But the party’s performance in constituencies neighbouring Delhi tell a different story. While the party expected its popularity among the Delhi voters to be transferred to the capital’s periphery, the numbers don’t bear that out. The BJP succeeded in capturing all but one of the seven constituencies that surround the capital while AAP had to be content with a fourth position at best. AAP heavyweights such as Yogendra Yadav, who contested from Gurgaon, and Shazia Ilmi, who stood from Ghaziabad, were left with a paltry 6% and 6.6% of the vote share. The farmer leader Somendra Dhaka did not even manage 0.5% of the vote share in Baghpat. In all the seven seats surrounding Delhi, AAP did not manage to get 5% of vote share.
The silver lining for the Aam Admi Party was its stellar debut in Punjab. With an impressive vote share of 24.36%, the party was able to seize four of the state’s 13 parliamentary seats. Although the Congress emerged with 33% of the votes, the highest share in Punjab, AAP’s surprise gains cut into the support bases of both the Congress and the BJP. Punjab actually recorded a negative swing of -1.6% for the BJP compared to saffron party’s performance in the elections of 2009.
This upset for the BJP could be attributed to the anti-incumbency wave in Punjab brought on by claims that its alliance partner, the Akali Dal, is associated with the drug mafia and, by implication, bears responsibility for the growing drug problem among the state’s youth. In addition, the BJP-Akali Dal alliance faced criticism for the imposition of property tax in municipal areas. AAP leveraged this sentiment with its cadre of winners that included a comedian, a cardiologist, a teacher and a former diplomat.
Despite a poor showing in terms of numbers, AAP’s biggest contribution was the manner in which it changed the contours of political discourse. It may be argued that the party strengthened the anti-Congress sentiment that swept the BJP to power.
Although the party suffered because of an attempt to do too much in too little time, it may still spring back to gain the electorate’s favor in state assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana over the next few months. But it needs to survive internal conflicts, a tendency to pander to populism and a shaky organisational structure.
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AAP garnered just above 11 million votes, a little more than 2% of the total vote share. This is a commendable result for a new entrant in the national political fray, but insufficient for it to obtain the status of a national party. The bulk of AAP’s vote share – 54% of it – has been concentrated in the 20 constituencies of Delhi and Punjab. All its seats are from Punjab.
Dissatisfaction with AAP’s decision to resign from the Delhi government a mere 48 days after it gained power in December has been reflected to some extent in its performance in the Lok Sabha elections in the state. It trailed the Bharatiya Janata Party as a distant second in all Delhi constituencies by a minimum margin above one lakh votes.
The BJP swept Delhi clean, gaining 12% more votes than it did in the recent assembly elections.
However, AAP’s future may not be as bleak as it is painted to be. The fact that the party was able to finish second in Delhi and recorded an absolute increase of four lakh votes indicates a support base that can be leveraged if the party were to focus its efforts in the upcoming by-elections in Delhi.
But the party’s performance in constituencies neighbouring Delhi tell a different story. While the party expected its popularity among the Delhi voters to be transferred to the capital’s periphery, the numbers don’t bear that out. The BJP succeeded in capturing all but one of the seven constituencies that surround the capital while AAP had to be content with a fourth position at best. AAP heavyweights such as Yogendra Yadav, who contested from Gurgaon, and Shazia Ilmi, who stood from Ghaziabad, were left with a paltry 6% and 6.6% of the vote share. The farmer leader Somendra Dhaka did not even manage 0.5% of the vote share in Baghpat. In all the seven seats surrounding Delhi, AAP did not manage to get 5% of vote share.
The silver lining for the Aam Admi Party was its stellar debut in Punjab. With an impressive vote share of 24.36%, the party was able to seize four of the state’s 13 parliamentary seats. Although the Congress emerged with 33% of the votes, the highest share in Punjab, AAP’s surprise gains cut into the support bases of both the Congress and the BJP. Punjab actually recorded a negative swing of -1.6% for the BJP compared to saffron party’s performance in the elections of 2009.
This upset for the BJP could be attributed to the anti-incumbency wave in Punjab brought on by claims that its alliance partner, the Akali Dal, is associated with the drug mafia and, by implication, bears responsibility for the growing drug problem among the state’s youth. In addition, the BJP-Akali Dal alliance faced criticism for the imposition of property tax in municipal areas. AAP leveraged this sentiment with its cadre of winners that included a comedian, a cardiologist, a teacher and a former diplomat.
Despite a poor showing in terms of numbers, AAP’s biggest contribution was the manner in which it changed the contours of political discourse. It may be argued that the party strengthened the anti-Congress sentiment that swept the BJP to power.
Although the party suffered because of an attempt to do too much in too little time, it may still spring back to gain the electorate’s favor in state assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana over the next few months. But it needs to survive internal conflicts, a tendency to pander to populism and a shaky organisational structure.