Shanghai comes in third, with a population of 23 million, while Mumbai, along with Mexico City and São Paulo, is in fourth place, each with about 21 million residents.
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In 2030, Tokyo will still be in first place and Delhi in second, but by a much smaller margin. Tokyo's population will fall to 37 million, while Delhi’s will soar to 36 million, according to the revised World Urbanization Prospects report.
“A swelling population, high crime rates, and increasing pressure on resources like water are likely to evoke doomsday scenarios in people’s minds when they picture Delhi in 2050,” a journalist wrote three years ago, as New Delhi neared its 100-year anniversary.
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India has three mega-cities: Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata, the last of which has a population of 15 million. By 2030, four more mega-cities will be added – Bangalore (15 million), Chennai (14 million), Hyderabad (13 million) and Ahmedabad (10.5 million).
China and India have the largest rate of growth of urbanisation because both have a large rural base. Africa and Asia remain mostly rural with about 90% of the world’s rural population.
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By 2050, half of India’s population will live in urban areas. By that time, the report projects, 90% of Brazilians will be urban residents along with 76% of Chinese.
By 2050, the proportion of people living in urban areas is projected to increase from 54% now to 66%, largely thanks to urban growth in Africa and Asia, where an additional 2.5 billion people will be living in urban areas.
Of the projected growth, 37% comes from India, China and Nigeria alone. India itself will bring about 400 million people from rural to urban areas by 2050, taking the total to 814 million people in urban areas.
“The fastest-growing urban agglomerations are medium-sized cities and cities with less than 1 million inhabitants,” the report says. “Close to half of the world’s urban dwellers reside in relatively small settlements of less than 500,000 inhabitants, while only around one in eight live in the 28 mega-cities with more than 10 million inhabitants.”