There’s nothing like an opponent everyone despises.
On the eve of the last day of polling in the Lok Sabha elections, with victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party almost certain, a group of progressive activists sitting by the banks of the Ganga in Varanasi could see the writing on the wall.
“Within a year, what we need is a national stage that pulls all of our different movements together,” said Rajiv, an activist from Lucknow. “One that takes advantage of this historic opportunity and achieves something with our activism.”
The historic opportunity to which Rajiv was referring was that India was about to get a prime minister so antithetical to many different sections of the population that he could unite all his opponents, no matter where they stood on a range of issues. For some, the results to Bihar by-poll results this week are the first indication that this might be happening.
“The task is difficult and fraught with a lot of inner contradictions, but I have made up my mind to get everybody on board to fight the BJP,” said Janata Dal (United) president Sharad Yadav. The JD(U) forged an alliance with erstwhile arch-opponent Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress, hoping this would prevent the BJP from reprising its Lok Sabha haul, when the saffron party and its allies claimed 31 of 40 seats in Bihar.
Bihar by-polls
The 10 assembly constituencies that held by-polls in the state are in areas where the BJP-Lok Janshakti Party combine won nine seats during the general election, with a vote share of 45.3%. In the by-polls, however, the alliance only won four assembly seats, and their vote share dropped 8 points.
It is worth noting that the 8% points dropped by the BJP is more than the increase in vote share garnered by the RJD-Congress-JDU, suggesting that it was not simply a swing because of the sudden anti-Modi alliance but also a move away from the BJP. Although it wasn’t a clean sweep for the new alliance, the results suggest that the BJP’s opponents have learnt lessons from the general elections.
The move brought back memories of 2003’s Shimla Sankalp decision, made by the Congress in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections, when they called on “all secular forces” to combine against “divisive forces.” But the Congress was then in a position to lead an array of different forces in keeping the National Democratic Alliance out of power.
The Congress no longer enjoys that luxury, having failed to display any real direction after its unprecedented loss in the Parliamentary polls. The Bihar mahajot had more to do with arch-rivals Nitish Kumar, head of the JDU, and RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav realising that they would have to work together – the Congress came along as the RJD’s long-term alliance partner.
Defeating Indira
Instead, Sharad Yadav is looking to a different historical moment: the Janata Parivar. A number of outfits emerged from the group that banded together to beat Prime Minister Indira Gandhi after the Emergency, and Yadav believes they could be brought together today.
These would include the Samajwadi Party, the RJD, the JDU, Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal, HD Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular), Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal and Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal. Add in the Congress, Left and Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress – if she feels sufficiently threatened by the BJP in West Bengal – and you have a formidable alliance.
But though the possibility of a two-term Modi government is very real, getting these disparate players on the same side is not going to be easy. BSP chief Mayawati has already declined the feelers sent out by the SP, despite Mulayam Singh Yadav’s appeal to Lalu Prasad Yadav to broker an alliance.
The Biju Janata Dal, which runs Orissa, or the Indian National Lok Dal, which could soon be in a position to assume power in Haryana, might prefer to keep the Centre on their side to ensure necessary funds are sent their way. While an anti-Modi alliance sounds good on paper, it is when it comes down to the crucial considerations of leadership positions and seat-sharing that alliances easily fragment.
“A grand alliance outside Bihar is a tall order,” said Devesh Kumar, a senior journalist. “I don’t think that’s going to take place. It may have happened in Bihar, where Lalu and Nitish are fighting with their backs to the wall, but elsewhere it will be very difficult.”
Challenges for Congress
The grand grouping that resulted in the Janata Party was the result of the entrenched sentiment against the Congress at the time. Many of its offshoots continue to hold strongly to that anti-Congress-ism, while also deriving their support from the same space the Congress once occupied. This makes it hard for those parties to ally with the Congress, and harder still for a potential anti-Modi alliance to transpire.
“I don’t think the Congress will be driving this,” said Kay Benedict, a political analyst. “Their main problem is that some of these parties are against the Congress in their states. If they form an important part of the alliance then the Congress has to leave the state for them, as say in Jharkhand or Orissa. Congress is suffering because they lost their space to these parties. At the same time, now it is a difficult situation because even the BJP is eating its vote share, so they have to do something.”
Fortunately for many of these parties, few of these decisions have to be made right away. The alliances in the upcoming round of Assembly elections are largely settled. Instead, it’s a question of whether the first of the anti-Modi alliances – the Bihar experiment – can hold steady. Then comes the matter of scaling it up to cover the rest of the country.
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On the eve of the last day of polling in the Lok Sabha elections, with victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party almost certain, a group of progressive activists sitting by the banks of the Ganga in Varanasi could see the writing on the wall.
“Within a year, what we need is a national stage that pulls all of our different movements together,” said Rajiv, an activist from Lucknow. “One that takes advantage of this historic opportunity and achieves something with our activism.”
The historic opportunity to which Rajiv was referring was that India was about to get a prime minister so antithetical to many different sections of the population that he could unite all his opponents, no matter where they stood on a range of issues. For some, the results to Bihar by-poll results this week are the first indication that this might be happening.
“The task is difficult and fraught with a lot of inner contradictions, but I have made up my mind to get everybody on board to fight the BJP,” said Janata Dal (United) president Sharad Yadav. The JD(U) forged an alliance with erstwhile arch-opponent Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress, hoping this would prevent the BJP from reprising its Lok Sabha haul, when the saffron party and its allies claimed 31 of 40 seats in Bihar.
Bihar by-polls
The 10 assembly constituencies that held by-polls in the state are in areas where the BJP-Lok Janshakti Party combine won nine seats during the general election, with a vote share of 45.3%. In the by-polls, however, the alliance only won four assembly seats, and their vote share dropped 8 points.
It is worth noting that the 8% points dropped by the BJP is more than the increase in vote share garnered by the RJD-Congress-JDU, suggesting that it was not simply a swing because of the sudden anti-Modi alliance but also a move away from the BJP. Although it wasn’t a clean sweep for the new alliance, the results suggest that the BJP’s opponents have learnt lessons from the general elections.
The move brought back memories of 2003’s Shimla Sankalp decision, made by the Congress in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections, when they called on “all secular forces” to combine against “divisive forces.” But the Congress was then in a position to lead an array of different forces in keeping the National Democratic Alliance out of power.
The Congress no longer enjoys that luxury, having failed to display any real direction after its unprecedented loss in the Parliamentary polls. The Bihar mahajot had more to do with arch-rivals Nitish Kumar, head of the JDU, and RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav realising that they would have to work together – the Congress came along as the RJD’s long-term alliance partner.
Defeating Indira
Instead, Sharad Yadav is looking to a different historical moment: the Janata Parivar. A number of outfits emerged from the group that banded together to beat Prime Minister Indira Gandhi after the Emergency, and Yadav believes they could be brought together today.
These would include the Samajwadi Party, the RJD, the JDU, Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal, HD Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular), Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal and Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal. Add in the Congress, Left and Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress – if she feels sufficiently threatened by the BJP in West Bengal – and you have a formidable alliance.
But though the possibility of a two-term Modi government is very real, getting these disparate players on the same side is not going to be easy. BSP chief Mayawati has already declined the feelers sent out by the SP, despite Mulayam Singh Yadav’s appeal to Lalu Prasad Yadav to broker an alliance.
The Biju Janata Dal, which runs Orissa, or the Indian National Lok Dal, which could soon be in a position to assume power in Haryana, might prefer to keep the Centre on their side to ensure necessary funds are sent their way. While an anti-Modi alliance sounds good on paper, it is when it comes down to the crucial considerations of leadership positions and seat-sharing that alliances easily fragment.
“A grand alliance outside Bihar is a tall order,” said Devesh Kumar, a senior journalist. “I don’t think that’s going to take place. It may have happened in Bihar, where Lalu and Nitish are fighting with their backs to the wall, but elsewhere it will be very difficult.”
Challenges for Congress
The grand grouping that resulted in the Janata Party was the result of the entrenched sentiment against the Congress at the time. Many of its offshoots continue to hold strongly to that anti-Congress-ism, while also deriving their support from the same space the Congress once occupied. This makes it hard for those parties to ally with the Congress, and harder still for a potential anti-Modi alliance to transpire.
“I don’t think the Congress will be driving this,” said Kay Benedict, a political analyst. “Their main problem is that some of these parties are against the Congress in their states. If they form an important part of the alliance then the Congress has to leave the state for them, as say in Jharkhand or Orissa. Congress is suffering because they lost their space to these parties. At the same time, now it is a difficult situation because even the BJP is eating its vote share, so they have to do something.”
Fortunately for many of these parties, few of these decisions have to be made right away. The alliances in the upcoming round of Assembly elections are largely settled. Instead, it’s a question of whether the first of the anti-Modi alliances – the Bihar experiment – can hold steady. Then comes the matter of scaling it up to cover the rest of the country.
