It’s hard to explain just how massive the Aam Aadmi Party’s election victory has turned out to be, but the bare figures can give you some indication. The Aam Aadmi Party has won 67 of 70 seats in the Delhi assembly. That is a whopping 95% of the assembly, a massive, nearly unprecedented verdict. Here are the final results.
To put that in context, AAP has done better than NT Rama Rao’s Telugu Desam Party in its debut landslide victory in Andhra Pradesh in 1983; better than Rajiv Gandhi’s Congress in the general election of 1984, right after Indira Gandhi was assassinated; and even better than the National Conference’s win in Kashmir in 1962, right after Sheikh Abdullah was arrested.
Again, though it is not an apples to apples comparison, it is much larger than the massive victory that Narendra Modi was able to notch in the general election last year. Only Sikkim in 2009 managed to beat this result, with a 100% win for the Sikkim Democratic Front, although the electorate there is just over two lakhs, compared to the eight million who voted in Delhi. (The chart below is representative, rather than exhaustive, to give context to the AAP victory).
The difference here is that there isn’t any particular political touchstone to refer to in connection with the AAP victory. Their shock December 2013 win can be connected to their arrival in the political sphere, comparable to NTR’s surprising victory in 1983. But this time around there’s almost nothing specific that can be attached to the AAP’s victory.
The Kiran Bedi factor, which many will claim played a major role in turning the tide against the Bharatiya Janata Party, might be pointed to, but it’s not significant enough to explain a mandate this large. The BJP’s negative campaign did not get so much play, so this result can't be attributed this result as a sympathy wave in reverse. Some might bring up factors like the BJP’s gharwapsi campaigns turning off urban voters, although it’s unclear how much of an effect that had.
In retrospect, it’s more likely that the events that will be referred to are Modi’s win in 2014, with anecdotal evidence suggesting that many Delhi residents voted to ensure that the Central government had a check on it, and the 49 days of AAP rule in 2014, which people have started to remember as being particularly well governed.
The election is also significant in vote-share terms, though this isn't unprecedented. Jammu and Kashmir, Sikkim and Himachal have all notched higher vote-share numbers, but it is still tremendous that more than one out of every two votes cast went to the Aam Aadmi Party, even though the other side had a personality as towering as Narendra Modi looming over them.
Although it's harder to establish this, because of the variations in the opinion polls, the turnaround witnessed in the party's political fortunes is probably also unprecedented. As recently as November, AAP was forecast to win just 18 seats in the assembly, with the BJP expected to grab 46. The final count, of course, is nothing close to those numbers, or even what was predicted in the exit polls.
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To put that in context, AAP has done better than NT Rama Rao’s Telugu Desam Party in its debut landslide victory in Andhra Pradesh in 1983; better than Rajiv Gandhi’s Congress in the general election of 1984, right after Indira Gandhi was assassinated; and even better than the National Conference’s win in Kashmir in 1962, right after Sheikh Abdullah was arrested.
Again, though it is not an apples to apples comparison, it is much larger than the massive victory that Narendra Modi was able to notch in the general election last year. Only Sikkim in 2009 managed to beat this result, with a 100% win for the Sikkim Democratic Front, although the electorate there is just over two lakhs, compared to the eight million who voted in Delhi. (The chart below is representative, rather than exhaustive, to give context to the AAP victory).
The difference here is that there isn’t any particular political touchstone to refer to in connection with the AAP victory. Their shock December 2013 win can be connected to their arrival in the political sphere, comparable to NTR’s surprising victory in 1983. But this time around there’s almost nothing specific that can be attached to the AAP’s victory.
The Kiran Bedi factor, which many will claim played a major role in turning the tide against the Bharatiya Janata Party, might be pointed to, but it’s not significant enough to explain a mandate this large. The BJP’s negative campaign did not get so much play, so this result can't be attributed this result as a sympathy wave in reverse. Some might bring up factors like the BJP’s gharwapsi campaigns turning off urban voters, although it’s unclear how much of an effect that had.
In retrospect, it’s more likely that the events that will be referred to are Modi’s win in 2014, with anecdotal evidence suggesting that many Delhi residents voted to ensure that the Central government had a check on it, and the 49 days of AAP rule in 2014, which people have started to remember as being particularly well governed.
The election is also significant in vote-share terms, though this isn't unprecedented. Jammu and Kashmir, Sikkim and Himachal have all notched higher vote-share numbers, but it is still tremendous that more than one out of every two votes cast went to the Aam Aadmi Party, even though the other side had a personality as towering as Narendra Modi looming over them.
Although it's harder to establish this, because of the variations in the opinion polls, the turnaround witnessed in the party's political fortunes is probably also unprecedented. As recently as November, AAP was forecast to win just 18 seats in the assembly, with the BJP expected to grab 46. The final count, of course, is nothing close to those numbers, or even what was predicted in the exit polls.
