Astounded Congress members were scrambling for answers after they learnt that party vice-president Rahul Gandhi had taken “leave of absence” just when they were planning an onslaught on the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government in the budget session of Parliament, which commenced on Monday.

The official version put out by party spokesperson Abhishek Singhvi was that Rahul Gandhi had requested Congress president Sonia Gandhi for some time off to “reflect on recent events and the future course of the party”.

Rahul Gandhi, said Singhvi, had been granted “leave of absence for a few weeks after which he will return and resume his active participation in the affairs of the Congress party”.

According to Singhvi, Rahul Gandhi believes that this spell of introspection is vital as he would like to use this period to plan for the coming session of the All India Congress Committee, which is of crucial importance for the party’s future.

Faced with a volley of questions on whether the party vice-president wished to withdraw from party affairs, Singhvi was at pains to explain that Rahul Gandhi was not reflecting on his “own future role” but the party’s future. The next AICC session is likely to be held in April and it is widely expected that Rahul Gandhi will be anointed party president at this meeting.

Despite this official explanation, Rahul Gandhi’s decision to take time off set off furious speculation in the party. Three broad scenarios were being discussed:

• Facing stiff opposition from the party’s old guard, which wants Sonia Gandhi to continue as Congress president, Rahul Gandhi’s “leave of absence” is seen as an ultimatum that he be allowed to run the party on his terms.

• Rahul Gandhi’s latest move is a tactical retreat before he storms the fort and takes over as party chief at the next AICC session.

• This spell of absence may well be a prelude to Rahul Gandhi’s gradual disengagement from the party which, in turn, could pave the way for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s entry into active politics.

Rahul Gandhi has been in the firing line following the party’s rout in last year’s Lok Sabha polls and the subsequent assembly elections. Blaming the Nehru-Gandhi scion for this poor electoral performance, there is a growing view among restive Congress cadres that he is not the right choice to lead the party as he does not have the requisite leadership qualities and does not connect with the voter. The rank and file is particularly upset that Rahul Gandhi has taken no steps to rejuvenate the party or lift their sagging morale after the Congress’s humiliating defeats. Worse, he has shown no signs of staying the course and being a proactive leader. His latest decision to take leave of absence at this crucial juncture has only proved his critics right.

The post-defeat churning has intensified the battle between the Congress old guard or those who owe allegiance to Sonia Gandhi and the party’s GenNext which is seen to be close to Rahul Gandhi. Fearing that they would find no place in Rahul Gandhi’s team, party seniors have been pressing Sonia Gandhi to continue as party president for another term.

A Nehru-Gandhi party

As this tussle rages on, party insiders said Rahul Gandhi has been insisting that he should be given a free hand in restructuring the party organisation and running the show. And his decision to take time off is a last-ditch attempt to force Sonia Gandhi, who would prefer that Rahul Gandhi should work with party seniors.

“He wants to run the party on his own terms... to begin with, he would like his own team in place,” remarked a former Congress chief minister. “Rahul Gandhi believes he has been facing flak for decisions which have been taken by leaders who are not answerable to him.”

Although there is a view that Rahul Gandhi is not cut out to head the party, Congress cadres are also resigned to the fact that he will eventually take over from Sonia Gandhi. “The Congress is a Nehru-Gandhi party,” said a former Union minister. “There is no escape from it.”

Rahul Gandhi has a tough task on hand with the Congress’s support base eroding in large swathes of the country. With the party’s survival at stake, he has to come up with fresh ideas and programmes to reach out to the younger voter in a fast-changing social demographic. It is being said that he will use the coming weeks to prepare a future roadmap for the party which will be unveiled at the next AICC session when he is likely to take over as party president.

A section in the party maintained it will be better if Rahul Gandhi does take over as Congress chief at the earliest as he can then be held accountable for his decisions. In any case, it has been pointed out, Sonia Gandhi has been reduced to a rubber stamp and it is Rahul Gandhi who has been taking key decisions over the past year. “Sonia Gandhi’s role has been reduced to applying balm to the wounds of aggrieved party men who visit her,” said another former Union minister.

Although a rather extreme view, it is also being speculated that Rahul Gandhi’s decision could be the first step towards his gradual withdrawal from the party. While Congress leaders insisted that Rahul Gandhi will be back, there were whispers that he may disengage from the Congress given the hostility he has been facing from within the party. But this appears unlikely as both Sonia Gandhi and her daughter Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will never allow Rahul Gandhi to call it quits.

Whatever the reasons for Rahul Gandhi’s latest decision, it has left the party shell-shocked as it comes at a time when the Congress was planning to corner a defensive Modi government both inside and outside Parliament on its decision to dilute the land acquisition law. “At a time when he should be leading the party, our general has abandoned the troops,” bemoaned a senior Congress leader. “How do we explain this to our workers?”