The unedifying image of former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed being dragged by local police to a courthouse in Male on Sunday draws attention to the current political crisis that has engulfed the island nation. India has expressed its concern over the “arrest and manhandling” of Nasheed and urged all sides to “calm the situation and resolve their differences within the constitutional and legal framework of the Maldives.”
While there has been no formal statement, the visit of Prime Minister Modi to the island nation scheduled for mid March appears to be in some doubt and this is reflective of Indian discomfiture over the tangled political developments in Maldives.
The current Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom is the brother of the former strongman President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom who ruled Maldives with an iron-hand for almost three decades (1978 – 2008) till he was ousted in November 2008 by Nasheed. However the latter had a turbulent stint as the President and his ambitious agenda to modernize the domestic economy and promote tourism were resisted both by the earlier regime and the conservative Islamic constituency. Consequently mass protests in the small nation (population 400,000) and some imprudent decisions taken by President Nasheed, including the controversial arrest of the Chief Justice in January 2012, led to the forced resignation of Nasheed in February 2012. This happened a few months after the SAARC Summit held in the Maldives in November 2011.
Domestic challenges
Since then the former president has been facing severe domestic political challenges so much so that a year later in February 2013, Nasheed sought asylum in the Indian mission in Male fearing for his personal safety. At the time New Delhi, it appears ,was caught by surprise at the roller-coaster turn of events and was reluctant to get directly involved in the internal affairs of the island state.
Over the last three years, the intense domestic political contest in the Maldives enabled the return of the Gayoom faction which has now pressed terrorism charges against Nasheed. However his supporters see this as a move by the current dispensation to prevent Nasheed from returning to power through the ballot-box and Delhi will have to calibrate its politico-diplomatic approach to respond to the current crisis.
The Nasheed arrest is the first regional diplomatic challenge to the Modi government and the exchange of statements is instructive. While India has expressed "concern", the Maldives Foreign Minister Dunya Maumoon observed in an import laden statement that her government had “no doubt that India will adhere to the principle of Panchsheel and will not intervene in the domestic politics of Maldives.”
India has been a friend-in-need for the Maldives on more than one occasion and in November 1988, with PM Rajiv Gandhi in South Block, the Indian military deftly foiled a mercenary coup attempt against the then President Gayoom. The international community applauded the swift Indian response and this action also burnished Delhi’s regional profile. Later in December 2004 when the deadly tsunami ravaged many parts of the Indian Ocean littoral –the Maldives with its distinctive low sea-level topography was wrecked. Again, the Indian military rose to the occasion and provided much needed succour.
China card
Hence there is a natural reservoir of goodwill towards India but in recent years the factional politics of the island state have introduced the China card to balance what is perceived as an overwhelming tilt towards Delhi. Concurrently the more conservative and pro-wahabi/salafi Islamic constituency has also increased its politico-religious influence and latest reports refer to the presence of IS (Islamic State ) and al-Qaeda sympathizers in the Maldives.
India has adopted a very cautious and judicious stand in not getting sucked into the domestic politics of the Maldives. The strategic location of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean accord it a geographical relevance that is of special salience to China. The ambitious new maritime silk route unveiled by President Xi Jinping has been welcomed by the current leadership in Male and this is a familiar pattern for Delhi – that of the smaller SAARC nations seeking to maximize their leverage with both Asian giants.
Nurturing democratic regimes in the neighbourhood is a desirable objective for India but the policy challenge is to find the appropriate balance in approach. The perspicacity of the Modi government will be on test.
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While there has been no formal statement, the visit of Prime Minister Modi to the island nation scheduled for mid March appears to be in some doubt and this is reflective of Indian discomfiture over the tangled political developments in Maldives.
The current Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom is the brother of the former strongman President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom who ruled Maldives with an iron-hand for almost three decades (1978 – 2008) till he was ousted in November 2008 by Nasheed. However the latter had a turbulent stint as the President and his ambitious agenda to modernize the domestic economy and promote tourism were resisted both by the earlier regime and the conservative Islamic constituency. Consequently mass protests in the small nation (population 400,000) and some imprudent decisions taken by President Nasheed, including the controversial arrest of the Chief Justice in January 2012, led to the forced resignation of Nasheed in February 2012. This happened a few months after the SAARC Summit held in the Maldives in November 2011.
Domestic challenges
Since then the former president has been facing severe domestic political challenges so much so that a year later in February 2013, Nasheed sought asylum in the Indian mission in Male fearing for his personal safety. At the time New Delhi, it appears ,was caught by surprise at the roller-coaster turn of events and was reluctant to get directly involved in the internal affairs of the island state.
Over the last three years, the intense domestic political contest in the Maldives enabled the return of the Gayoom faction which has now pressed terrorism charges against Nasheed. However his supporters see this as a move by the current dispensation to prevent Nasheed from returning to power through the ballot-box and Delhi will have to calibrate its politico-diplomatic approach to respond to the current crisis.
The Nasheed arrest is the first regional diplomatic challenge to the Modi government and the exchange of statements is instructive. While India has expressed "concern", the Maldives Foreign Minister Dunya Maumoon observed in an import laden statement that her government had “no doubt that India will adhere to the principle of Panchsheel and will not intervene in the domestic politics of Maldives.”
India has been a friend-in-need for the Maldives on more than one occasion and in November 1988, with PM Rajiv Gandhi in South Block, the Indian military deftly foiled a mercenary coup attempt against the then President Gayoom. The international community applauded the swift Indian response and this action also burnished Delhi’s regional profile. Later in December 2004 when the deadly tsunami ravaged many parts of the Indian Ocean littoral –the Maldives with its distinctive low sea-level topography was wrecked. Again, the Indian military rose to the occasion and provided much needed succour.
China card
Hence there is a natural reservoir of goodwill towards India but in recent years the factional politics of the island state have introduced the China card to balance what is perceived as an overwhelming tilt towards Delhi. Concurrently the more conservative and pro-wahabi/salafi Islamic constituency has also increased its politico-religious influence and latest reports refer to the presence of IS (Islamic State ) and al-Qaeda sympathizers in the Maldives.
India has adopted a very cautious and judicious stand in not getting sucked into the domestic politics of the Maldives. The strategic location of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean accord it a geographical relevance that is of special salience to China. The ambitious new maritime silk route unveiled by President Xi Jinping has been welcomed by the current leadership in Male and this is a familiar pattern for Delhi – that of the smaller SAARC nations seeking to maximize their leverage with both Asian giants.
Nurturing democratic regimes in the neighbourhood is a desirable objective for India but the policy challenge is to find the appropriate balance in approach. The perspicacity of the Modi government will be on test.
