A pitched campaign run by former Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh for nearly two years is finally reaching its denouement.

Giving in to sustained pressure from him, the Congress high command is pushing out the Punjab unit president Pratap Singh Bajwa and overhauling its faction-ridden state team. The paramount question now is: will Bajwa’s successor be Amarinder Singh or one of his loyalists or will it be another rival?

Over the last two years, the Captain has held a one-point agenda – the dethronement of Bajwa. Besides openly criticising Bajwa, he has held parallel programmes to exhibit his sway in the state unit, which are routinely attended by the 35-odd Members of Legislative Assembly loyal to him. The party has 43 members in the 117-member Punjab assembly.

During the last monsoon session of Parliament, while Congress president Sonia Gandhi and vice-president Rahul Gandhi laid siege to the government, Amarinder Singh, the Congress’s deputy leader in the Lok Sabha, remained missing. His alibi was that he was busy building the Congress in Punjab by organising political rallies.

Indeed, the former chief minister reportedly told Sonia Gandhi that he was not interested in being the party’s deputy leader in the Lower House. Rather, he would prefer leading the party to victory in the assembly polls due in 2017. She, however, insisted that he simultaneously hold the post and concentrate on Punjab.

Who'll be the successor?

In Punjab, Amarinder Singh has gained the reputation of a giant killer after the 2014 general elections where he defeated Bharatiya Janata Party stalwart Arun Jaitley from Amritsar despite the countrywide Modi wave and the BJP’s alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal. It is believed that Bajwa had recommended Amarinder’s candidature from the constituency in order to square off with him after his likely defeat. While Amarinder Singh didn’t lose, it did strengthen his resolve to get Bajwa ousted.

The reputation gained last year is still holding the former chief minister in good stead – as also are his ties with the Gandhi family. The erstwhile royal shared a long association with Rajiv Gandhi since both had studied at Doon School and remained in touch with him at both the political and the personal level.

Fighting his campaign, the former chief minister’s detractors, including Bajwa, pointed out that since it was Amarinder Singh who had led Congress to two successive defeats in Punjab – in 2007 and in 2012 – he shouldn’t be given the charge of the party during the next elections. The party high command too was wary of acceding to the demand of Bajwa’s ouster for fear of inflaming similar cries from other state units. Punjab would set off a domino effect, it felt.

However, Amarinder Singh kept up the pressure, and some of his loyalists dropped hints that he might form a new regional outfit if not placated. Finally, the party gave in, declaring that it would replace Bajwa and change the state leadership. The overhaul is expected to come through in a week. It is held up, again because of Amarinder Singh.

Though several names are being considered for the state president’s post, former Union minister Ambika Soni is likely to get the job. Amarinder Singh has made it known that he would like Bajwa to be replaced with his loyalist and the current leader of the party in the state assembly, Sunil Jakhar. As it happens, Soni, who is considered close to Sonia Gandhi, is perceived as a threat by Amarinder Singh in case the Congress wins the 2017 elections.

The stakes for the Congress are high. The party is looking at the 2017 Punjab assembly elections as its turnaround moment since its chances in Bihar, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, which go to polls before Punjab, are slim. Its leaders think that a victory in Punjab could pave the way for the party’s revival in the run-up to the next Lok Sabha elections. One thing going in its favour is the anti-incumbency against the Akali Dal-BJP government. But there’s a big obstacle: the presence of the Aam Aadmi Party in the fray.