There is indeed more sound than light in the Indian interpretations and commentaries on the Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit’s candid remarks in New Delhi on Thursday regarding the moribund India-Pakistan dialogue.

However, vitriolic, self-righteous interpretations do not serve any purpose. For a start, let us sidestep polemics and try to understand the Pakistani motivations in “suspending” the dialogue.

Pakistan’s domestic politics

Certain things must be noted carefully at the outset. For a start, Pakistan’s domestic politics has lately entered a very delicate period and the civilian leadership has virtually retreated from the making of major foreign and security policy decisions.

One of the main reasons behind this is Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s sincere attempts at improving relations with India.

A perception has gained ground within the Pakistani establishment that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has outwitted Sharif by exploiting the latter’s manifest keenness for a normalisation process with India riveted on accelerating economic cooperation between the two adversaries.

The campaign against Sharif caricatures him as pursuing a personal agenda vis-à-vis India, devolving upon his family’s extensive business interests. The close association of a major Indian corporate house with Modi’s sensational visit to Lahore would only have strengthened such a perception.

Muscular policy

Now, by itself, this might not have mattered any more than, say, the Panama Papers. But then, we in India refuse to take cognisance of the fact that the present government has been following a hardline policy toward Pakistan – virtually co-opting the longstanding Pakistani policy of “talk, talk, fight, fight”.

This muscular policy involves on the one hand a robust diplomatic and political offensive – be it in the United Nations in New York or in Washington, Beijing, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.

While journeying on this track, we have completely overlooked that Modi’s political persona evokes, let us say, very complex feelings in the Pakistani opinion. Put differently, Pakistan is reeling under the pressure of Modi’s diplomatic and political offensive.

It thinks Sharif squandered away the advantageous position Islamabad used to enjoy on the diplomatic turf as recently as six months – or an year – ago. To be sure, pressure is building up on Pakistan to move forward to meet the Indian expectations of curbing terrorism and the militant groups. International opinion also broadly empathises with India.

Suffice it to say, India’s diplomatic strategy stands vindicated – in appearing to be the injured party which is nonetheless amenable to reason and remains open with seamless patience to dialogue.

Pakistani paranoia

However, what has complicated matters is the hidden side of the Indian political offensive, as the recent “spy” incident exposed. Make no mistake about Pakistan’s sense of indignation, no matter the Indian denials or show of indifference.

The Pakistani military and security establishment is paranoid – rightly or wrongly – that the Indian agencies have spread their tentacles deep inside Pakistan and are systematically undermining and destabilising that country.

A reasonable voice in the Pakistani discourse, Talat Masood, summed up the thinking in Pakistan when he wrote this week:


“On the surface, Prime Minister Modi tries to give an impression of improving relations with Islamabad. In sharp contrast, his government is literally pursuing policies that aim at deliberately undermining and destabilising the state. The double speak, combined with a well-orchestrated campaign of defaming Pakistan at international forums and the world’s capitals, have become the norm”.

It could be that Pakistan is seeing devils where none probably exists, but then, perceptions are two-thirds of politics. Such perceptions as they exist today in the Pakistani mind might not have arisen if Manmohan Singh were the captain of the Indian ship. But the boss happens to be Narendra Modi. And the Manichean fears surge uncontrollably in the Pakistani mind.

The point is, we are also not helping matters. Even as I write, a talk is being delivered elsewhere in the Indian capital on April 8 by a top Baluchi secessionist leader Naela Qadri Blaoch titled “Balochistan at Crossroads – The World Needs a Conscience”.

Should the Indian authorities have been a party to the enactment of such a hugely provocative act right in the heart of the capital city from a prestigious platform that often works in concert with the foreign-policy establishment at the Track 2 level? There are no easy answers.

Why is this happening? In a nutshell, Prime Minister Modi seems to be merely going through the motions of a charm offensive on the diplomatic front vis-à-vis Prime Minister Sharif, where the initiative rests entirely in his hands.

Of course, this dual-track strategy suits Modi because he is entirely at liberty to close or open the tap as it suits him – and, thereby, he is able to avoid offending or disorienting his hardcore right-wing supporters, who genuinely believe in his campaign rhetoric in the 2014 poll boasting his intent to administer shock and awe to Pakistan.

Alas, the upshot of this curious and extremely risky pantomime is that Sharif finds himself in a false, untenable position within his own camp in Islamabad. We may have weakened him irretrievably – if not, lethally wounded him.

Looking ahead

From here, unless the tensions are calibrated, things can only go from bad to worse. Indeed, there is danger that things may spin entirely out of control and a flashpoint may arise. Pakistan is bound to see renewed logic in resuscitating those very same militant groups which India has been demanding should be curbed.

But, on the other hand, the Pakistani generals are cautious by temperament, and, as things stand, their hands are full coping with the internal security crisis. The ground reality is that Pakistan is on the brink of total chaos and even the heartland of Punjab is in turmoil.

Fundamentally, we in India need to have clarity as to whether the triumphalism over Pakistan’s deepening instability is actually in our country’s long-term interests.

But that requires maturity of thinking and the intellectual acumen – or honesty – to comprehend that India too is increasingly becoming a divided house. Doing to others an act that you’d rather not have done to you reveals actually a powerful internal conflict.

The good part in all this is that superseding High Commissioner Basit’s remarks Washington has already urged the two neighbours to "engage in direct dialogue that’s aimed at reducing tensions between the two governments and two countries".

Every cloud has a silver lining and the silver lining here is that the Narendra Modi government and the right-wing forces that mentor it are highly vulnerable to American pressure, their ultra-nationalist posturing notwithstanding.

The issue, therefore, boils down to how soon Modi will bestir himself to action once again to put behind him the interregnum that began yesterday.