Amidst the exhilaration over the Bharatiya Janata Party’s landslide victory in Assam, the party leadership has begun to absorb an uncomfortable truth. BJP president Amit Shah’s strategy may have sizzled in Assam, but his plan to replace Anandiben Patel as chief minister before the 2017 Assembly elections in his home turf of Gujarat may be thwarted by a renewed vigour acquired by the chief minister following a by-election victory in the state.
BJP candidate Govind Parmar wrested the Talala Assembly seat in Gir-Somnath district from the Congress in a by-poll that was held on May 16. The election was necessitated after Jasu Barad, the sitting Congress MLA, died in January. The constituency had been held by the Congress since 2007.
Breather for Anandiben?
This victory seems to have boosted Anandiben Patel so much that she is now planning to participate enthusiastically in the BJP’s Vikas Parv Sammelans and statewide Vikas Yatras beginning May 22 – the day she assumed office two years ago following the BJP victory in the Lok Sabha elections, which saw her predecessor Narendra Modi head to Delhi as prime minister.
The by-poll win means that Anandiben – who was facing the charge of messing up the Patel quota agitation and was under huge pressure to vacate the chief minister’s post so that the BJP could avoid the wrath of the Patidars in the Assembly elections due next year – is now contemplating fighting back instead of bowing down to Shah’s plan.
“In all, there will be Vikas Parv Sammelans at 14 places across the state between May 22 and 26,” former minister and senior Gujarat BJP leader Gordhan Zadaphia told Scroll.in. “In addition, the party’s ministers, MPs and MLAs will also bring out yatras in different parts of Gujarat between May 22 and 29.”
He added: “The achievements of the government of Anandiben Patel in Gujarat and that of Narendra Modi at the Centre would be showcased through these sammelans and yatras.”
No impact of Patel agitation?
Last week, there was intense speculation in a section of the media that Shah was planning a possible change of guard in Gujarat. The speculation gained credibility when Anandiben Patel met Modi and Shah on May 16. The next day she told the media at Indore that the party had no plans to replace her, but the speculation refused to die down.
“The argument of Amit Shah that Anandiben poorly handled the quota agitation and that the party would have to pay a huge price in the next Assembly election if she continues as the CM is misplaced,” said a Gujarat minister, who wanted to remain anonymous. “The by-election result proves that she has handled the Patel agitation meticulously and can, therefore, lead the party to victory in the Assembly polls.”
State BJP president Vijay Rupani claimed that the by-poll victory was an indication that the Patel quota agitation, which had led to resentment against the BJP within the Patel community, did not affect the party’s performance in Talala.
The minister, considered close to the chef minister, alleged that rumours of Anandiben Patel’s ouster were being fuelled at the behest of “some top party leaders in Delhi”. He, however, refused to name them.
In any case, the belligerent mood that Patel is in following the Talala win means that Shah will need to do some hard negotiating if a deal is to be reached to persuade her to make way for a new chief minister. That is, if at all she gets persuaded.
