The Big Story: Nuclear Surprises Group
It should be clear by Friday evening whether India's membership application to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group, being opposed primarily by China, was successful. Discussions went late into the night on Thursday, as members of the group debated the entry of a country that isn't a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. India already has a waiver allowing it to access the fuel and technology that NSG membership would have provided, but New Delhi has made membership the central focus of its diplomacy over the last month or so.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj flew around the world to convince leaders they should back India, and reports from people at the meeting on Thursday suggest this mostly bore fruit. Although a number of countries raised concerns about letting in non-NPT nations like India, those objections melted away as the evening went along. Turkey's stance rather pointedly still puts India and Pakistan – which has also sought membership – on the same plane. Though some people said Brazil and South Africa were also opposed, those countries seemed willing to find a way forward.
This leaves only China. Modi made a direct appeal to Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting in Tashkent earlier on Thursday. Yet the Chinese delegation at the NSG seemed firm in its opposition to Indian membership. This is partly because it sees India's candidacy as being propped up by the United States, which is why it has encouraged equivalence with Pakistan – a country with a questionable record on proliferation.
India could suggest that a "no" from Beijing would seriously impact ties, potentially reconfiguring the balance in Asia. Or it could make some concessions, as it already has in dropping mentions of the South China Sea, to convince Beijing to back the bid. It does neither country any good to make the NSG membership an India-China face-off, even if Beijing ends up standing in the way on Friday.
New Delhi made a bold decision to turn this plenary into a decisive moment, in some ways because it has nothing to lose. Not getting membership doesn't nullify the NSG waiver it obtained in 2008, so the damage will only be reputational and psychological. Failure here could also be temporary, since diplomacy often occurs in increments. If it does end with consensus from every state other than China, that itself would send a strong message about where each of the countries – and India's diplomatic corps – stands in the world.
Political Picks
1. Bharatiya Janata Party Member of Parliament Subramanian Swamy doesn't care what his own Leader of the House in the Rajya Sabha, Arun Jaitley, says – Swamy only talks to Narendra Modi.
2. The irrigation ministers of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh failed to break the deadlock over issues regarding the Krishna Basin at a meeting convened by the Centre.
3. The MM Khan murder case has prompted the BJP's Delhi unit leadership to start attacking the Lt Governor, Najeeb Jung, after a whole year of the Aam Aadmi Party attacking him for being a BJP stooge.
4. Plus ca change: Gurudas Kamat resigned from Congress and politics. Three weeks later, he's back.
5. India has rejected charges that North Korean scientists were being taught at an institute in Dehradun.
Punditry
1. Prabha Kotiswaran at Open Democracy says India's new trafficking bill is full of empty gestures.
2. The University Grants Commission is dealing with both over-regulation and under-regulation, and needs a complete overhaul, says a leader in Mint.
3. Satyabrata Pal in the Hindu uses many many words to say that the Indian attempt to get Nuclear Supplier Group membership is a waste of time.
4. Dominant castes are resentful, but backward ones don't think their needs have been addressed. Christophe Jaffrelot in the Indian Express says there will be a lot of reservation friction still to come.
Don't Miss
Vinita Govindarajan reports on the mood among the people as Tamil Nadu begins its prohibition drive.
"The Velachery shop, situated right next to the local bus terminus, was always swarming with customers in the evening, said local shopkeepers. People working in the area seemed to support prohibition – especially in Madurai, where they had heard of raging alcohol-induced brawls. “Alcoholism is a big problem in those places,” said SV Murugan, who works as a mechanic. “It is good that liquor shops are being shut down in stages. People will die if they are closed suddenly.”
