Despite all the furious last-minute diplomatic maneuvering, India is not yet a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. A plenary meeting of the 48-member club that regulates global access to nuclear fuel and technology concluded on Friday with only a commitment to "continue its discussion" on the possibility of states like India joining. China and a few other nations effectively blocked India's membership bid by insisting that applicants need to be signatories of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

"Participating Governments reiterated their firm support for the full, complete and effective implementation of the NPT as the cornerstone of the international non-proliferation regime."
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"The NSG had discussions on the issue of “Technical, Legal and Political Aspects of the Participation of non-NPT States in the NSG” and decided to continue its discussion."

The negotiations had been frantic and hopes were raised high after China agreed to have a discussion on the membership bid, even though it was not part of the original agenda for the plenary session in Seoul. A special post-dinner session went on till midnight on Thursday and continued on Friday, although ultimately it ended in a deadlock, with India still on outside looking in.

One country in the way

The Ministry of External Affairs Spokesperson Vikas Swarup put out a statement later in the day thanking the countries that supported it and calling for an early decision on the matter. He also made it evident who New Delhi thought was standing in India's way.

"We understand that despite procedural hurdles persistently raised by one country, a three hour long discussion took place last night on the issue of future participation in the NSG. An overwhelming number of those who took the floor supported India’s membership and appraised India’s application positively. We thank each and every one of them. It is also our understanding that the broad sentiment was to take this matter forward."

— Vikas Swarup, MEA spokesperson

Although reports suggested that a few other countries, including Switzerland, Turkey and Ireland, had also brought up doubts about allowing India into the club, the ministry's statement chose to only bring up hurdles raised by "one country". The NSG has confidentiality provisions, meaning representatives are not supposed to relay the specifics of the meeting, but it is more than clear that New Delhi was talking about China.

China's spokesperson later told journalists that there was no consensus on non-NPT members joining. "The NPT is really an issue, because for admission the NSG has five criteria for members, most noticeably the NPT, it is a must. This is not a rule set by China, this is the rule set by the NSG and reaffirmed by the international community," Wang Qun said.

Swiss reverse

He went further, insisting that India's application hadn't even been taken up – technically the group was discussing the membership of any non-NPT applicant, not just India's.

"Firstly India’s membership was not taken up. Also on the question of how to deal with Non-NPT states, the group is divided, and far apart, and there are many including some countries you mentioned , I do not want to name them because of confidentiality rules at NSG, but their public statements are not what the Indian media said they were," he said.

The most egregious example of this may have been Switzerland, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited earlier in the month in an effort to convince Geneva to back India. In a joint statement at the time, Modi had thanked the Swiss President for supporting India's bid to join the NSG. On Thursday, however, Switzerland seems to have insisted applicants being NPT members – which is the same as the Chinese stance. Brazil, ostensibly an Indian ally, also had the same objection.

India has, however, chosen to only mention "one country" in its statement, and there are murmurs that the other countries would give way if Beijing did, just as events transpired in 2008, when India's received an NSG waiver thanks to American intervention.

India's objectives

The MEA reiterated India's stance on the NPT, which is a discriminatory treat that privileges the original five nuclear powers and treats the rest as interlopers. India has maintained that its non-proliferation record is exemplary and said that the NPT issue was actually resolved way back in 2008, when it was given the waiver.

"It has been suggested that India’s participation in the NSG requires it to join the NPT. Our stand on the NPT is well known. But let me underline that in September 2008, the NSG itself addressed this issue. Paragraph 1 (a) of the September 2008 decision states that the decision on India contributes to the "widest possible implementation of the provisions and objectives of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons”. There is thus no contradiction between the NPT and India's closer engagement with with the NSG."

— Vikas Swarup, MEA spokesperson

The implication is that China's NPT insistence is an excuse to keep India out of the club, since that would mean a shift in the geopolitical balance in Asia. Conspicuously absent in many of these public debates was the United States, which had vocally intervened in 2008 to convince Beijing not to stand in the way.

Swarup chose to take a positive spin on events in Seoul, even though they didn't conclude the way New Delhi would have liked. He said the fact that questions about the process for India to join were even raised was proof that those countries were not opposed to the membership bid. "This is corroborated by our own bilateral engagement with each of these countries," he said.

He underlined the reason India is pushing so hard to join, saying NSG membership would help India achieve the renewable energy goals it committed to in the Paris agreement. And he concluded with a firm declaration of how India joining the NSG could help the group as much as it would be a win for New Delhi.

"India’s participation in the NSG will further strengthen nuclear non-proliferation and make global nuclear commerce more secure. It would advance energy security and make a difference to combating climate change. We are confident that the NSG will recognize these benefits as it deliberates further on this issue."

— Vikas Swarup, MEA spokesperson