For over two years now, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has led the Bharatiya Janata Party’s efforts to woo the Dalits and shed its upper caste image through the announcement of various schemes and the appropriation of Babasaheb Ambedkar’s legacy.

Modi travelled to Ambedkar’s birthplace Mhow on his 125th birth anniversary earlier this year for a special programme, laid the foundation stone for the Ambedkar National Memorial in Delhi, released commemorative coins on Ambedkar, visited Ambedkar’s House in London, unveiled a special scheme “Stand up India” to encourage Dalits to become entrepreneurs and convened a special session of Parliament last year to mark Constitution Day to pay tribute to Babasaheb. He followed these efforts with the induction of five Dalits to his council of ministers in the last Cabinet reshuffle.

And yet when Parliament erupted over the ongoing protests by Dalits in his home state Gujarat and the derogatory remarks made by a BJP office bearer against Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati, Modi chose to remain silent and was absent during the debate on atrocities against Dalits in the Rajya Sabha on Thursday afternoon. He also did not feel it was necessary to put in an appearance in the Rajya Sabha on Wednesday when the House was rocked by these twin developments.

As the country’s Home Minister, Rajnath Singh had the onerous task of responding to the opposition anger over the recent developments while finance minister Arun Jaitley apologised to Mayawati on his party’s behalf. It was the same when Parliament witnessed a heated debate following Hyderabad University Dalit scholar Rohith Vemula’s suicide. While former Human Resource Development Minister Smriti Irani had put up a stirring performance in Parliament to defend the government, Modi broke his silence on the issue not in Parliament but at a function at the Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University in Lucknow.

Too little, too late

It was expected that Modi would have something to say on the growing resentment among Dalits against his party when he addressed a public rally in Gorakhpur on Friday, but he did not do so here either. Whenever he does, BJP insiders fear that it may be a proverbial case of too little, too late even though his ministers have made appropriately placatory statements and the BJP rushed to expel its Uttar Pradesh vice-president Dayashankar Singh for his demeaning remarks against Mayawati. But the protests in Gujarat following the public beating of Dalit boys by members of a gau rakshak mandal and Dayashankar Singh’s outburst has undone Modi’s two-year mission.

If the BSP chief’s angry speeches in the Rajya Sabha this week and the street protests by her Dalit supporters in Lucknow are anything to go by, the BJP has blown away any chance it had of winning over the Dalits in next year’s Uttar Pradesh assembly election. There is every possibility that the BJP could meet the same fate it did in Bihar after the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat called for a relook at the country’s reservations policy. Although the BJP made a valiant attempt to put the record straight, this one statement sealed its fate as an upper caste party.

This tag has come to haunt the BJP once again in Uttar Pradesh. Putting up a brave face, BJP leaders maintain that this anger will subside shortly and with passage of time, these incidents will be forgotten. It feels the BSP will find it difficult to sustain its campaign as the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls are still eight months away. Moreover, BJP strategists believe the abusive language used by BSP workers on Thursday could boomerang on Mayawati as these would end up consolidating the upper castes against her and result in sharp polarisation on the ground. According to the BJP’s calculation, Mayawati cannot win the state only with the support of the Dalits and that she has to necessarily expand her base to improve her tally. It was this realisation which propelled the BSP chief to include the upper castes in her electoral plans in the 2007 assembly polls when she gave a large chunk of seats to Brahmins.

Timely boon

But as far as the BSP is concerned, these incidents could not have been more timely. Though it was tipped as a front-runner in next year’s assembly elections, Mayawati had, of late, appeared shaky after key desertions from her party strengthened the impression that it was losing ground. At the same time, the BJP’s graph started improving following its party president Amit Shah’s aggressive pitch in Uttar Pradesh. But the latest developments have pushed Mayawati to the political centre stage once again. The BJP’s poor and shoddy handling has provided an opportunity to the BSP chief to consolidate her support base by tapping in to the simmering anger of the scheduled castes and underlining her image as a symbol of Dalit empowerment. It is the BSP’s expectation that once the Dalits flock en masse to Mayawati, the Muslims will also rally round her as the two now share a common interest in defeating the BJP.

“The message has gone travelled down to the villages. This issue is not going to be forgotten soon,” remarked the BSP’s Rajya Sabha MP Satish Mishra pointing to the angry street protests in Lucknow and other places.

More importantly, Mayawati will not allow this matter to die down. As far as the BSP is concerned, the party chief has successfully sounded the poll bugle with her speeches in the Rajya Sabha.