The death of Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa on Monday night has sparked off furious speculation in political circles about the uncertain future faced by the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam because of the vacuum left by its most charismatic leader. It is being predicted that the party will start unravelling now that Jayalalithaa is no longer at the helm and that disgruntled AIADMK legislators will be vulnerable to poaching by the rival Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.
However, these political pundits may yet be proved wrong for two reasons: as the AIADMK government was formed only this May, its legislators would not like any disturbance at this juncture when there are more than four years to go for the next assembly election. Instead of risking their political careers, the AIADMK cadres will be tempted to sink their differences so that they are able to remain in power for the remaining part of their terms.
More importantly, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government at the Centre will ensure that Jayalalithaa’s party remains united and that the Karunanidhi-led DMK is not allowed to wean away unhappy and insecure AIADMK legislators. That’s because the BJP has a vested interest in keeping the AIADMK government stable.
Personal rapport
The reasons are not far to seek. The BJP needs the AIADMK’s support in next year’s Presidential election. According to its calculations, the National Democratic Alliance will not be able to muster the numbers to assure the victory of its candidate even if the BJP does exceedingly well in next year’s Uttar Pradesh election. It will have to necessarily reach out to friendly regional parties like the AIADMK and the Biju Janata Dal that usually stay away from joining hands with the other opposition parties. Although the BJP can play only a limited role in the internal developments of another political party, it will use all possible means at its command to see that the AIADMK is not disturbed.
Since Jayalalithaa enjoyed a personal rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, her party has generally extended support to the NDA government in Parliament on most issues. There have been exceptions like the Goods and Services Tax Bill when Jayalalithaa disagreed with the Centre. But in this particular instance, the AIADMK did not create any problems for the Modi government. It actually helped the ruling alliance by staging a walk-out in Parliament when the Bill was put to vote. Its absence facilitated the passage of the legislation because it brought down the strength of the House.
With 37 MPs in the Lok Sabha and 14 members in the Rajya Sabha, the AIADMK is a major political player in Parliament. The BJP would not like to lose the AIADMK’s support in Delhi because of any internal problems in the party. The BJP leadership, it is reliably learnt, has been in constant touch with Jayalalithaa’s trusted aide Sasikala, who is vulnerable because of the pending court cases against her. Sasikala, who enjoys substantial support in the AIADMK, is being urged not to create any trouble for Jayalalithaa’s successor O Paneerselvam. It is known that the two leaders are not on the best of terms.
Greater leverage
The BJP is also keen that the AIADMK government retains the reins of power in Tamil Nadu as its continuation will allow the Centre to exercise greater control over the state government. Paneerselvam is not in the same league as Jayalalithaa who could, at times, dig in her heels despite her friendly relations with the BJP. It believes that it will be easier to deal with Paneerselvam as he does not have the same command and control over the party as Jayalalithaa. It will take him some time to emerge as a leader in his own right as he has, so far, always been a loyal follower. Even during the past few months that Paneerselvam has been in charge in Tamil Nadu, the Modi government has been playing a key role in the functioning of the state government.
Though the BJP has no presence in Tamil Nadu ,which has always been dominated by the two Dravidian parties, it believes it has a chance to project itself as a credible national alternate given the fluid political situation in the southern state. Both the regional parties face a leadership crisis. The AIADMK has always revolved around Jayalalithaa who has been its most powerful leader in the recent past. The party does not have a leader who can match up to her. As a result, the AIADMK is expected to witness some internal churning in the coming months. On the other hand, the DMK is also in poor shape. Its veteran leader M Karunanidhi is in his nineties and is not keeping good health. Karunanidhi has declared his son MK Stalin as his successor but his other son MK Azhagiri, who was unhappy that his claims were overlooked, could create trouble for his brother when he formally takes over the party.
