The Congress has had a horrible few years. They were brought down to a historic low in the Lok Sabha and have ceded space in every election. Even the two victories the party has managed over since 2013 have to be qualified: In Bihar they were a tiny partner in a large alliance. And Puducherry is, well, tiny. The last time the Congress led the way to victory in a state was four years ago, when it won Mizoram in 2013. If exit polls are to be believed, the Congress’ slow crash and burn could continue in 2017 – though there are glimmers of hope.
The above graph is somewhat misleading. In Uttar Pradesh it is a Congress alliance in the fray, but one in which the Sonia Gandhi-led party is a small partner. The reverse holds true for Punjab, where the Bharatiya Janata Party is the junior partner to the Shiromani Akali Dal, which looks set to be routed.
The Congress can take heart from some of the exit poll numbers. An average of two polls in Manipur, where polling remains a tentative effort, puts the Congress just slightly ahead of the BJP. While a slight victory would come as a relief there, it should also have alarm bells ringing, since the BJP seems to have come from zero seats in the previous election to a near victory. One poll in fact, puts them ahead.
The Punjab numbers require even more qualification. The Congress might be doing well there in comparison to the SAD-BJP alliance, but it is neck-and-neck against a debutant contender in the state, the Aam Aadmi Party. Two of the polls put Congress level with AAP, one gives it a victory and one a defeat. The average of polls suggest both Congress and AAP will do well, without hitting the 59-seat mark needed to form government, even as the SAD-BJP alliance is routed.
Thus, looking across the projections for 2017 Assembly elections, the Congress doesn’t appear to be on a strong wicket anywhere. It has a slight chance of picking up Manipur, and is locked in a photo-finish race in Punjab. Goa and Uttarakhand, which are a straight Congress vs BJP fight (plus alliance partners), both look set to go to the saffron party. No exit poll gives the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance a victory in Uttar Pradesh, and even if a coalition was cobbled to take over, the Congress would only be a small partner.
If it loses in Manipur and AAP pulls off the debut victory in Punjab, that would leave Congress with no major victories between 2013 and 2017. And the upcoming election calendar – Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Meghalaya and Karnataka – isn’t particularly promising either.