Manipur elections 2017: Strong show by regional parties could work to the BJP's advantage

Manipur was going to be largely a two-party battle between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. All morning, the two national parties were locked in a close contest, with early BJP leads giving way to a slim margin for the Congress and then vice versa. But a third significant presence has emerged in the state: the regional players, leading in a number of seats.

An early surge among independents gave way by mid-morning to leads for the National People’s Party, the Naga People’s Front, the Nationalist Congress Party and the North East India Development Party. Initial leads for the freshly formed Manipur National Democratic Front gave way to the Lok Janshakti Party. A couple of factors could account for their share in the electoral pie.

First, in the Naga-dominated areas of the state, the economic blockade against the Manipur government’s decision to create new hill districts has dominated politics for the last few months. While the Congress remained a conspicuous absence in these constituencies, the Naga People’s Front emerged as the representative of Naga political demands. The United Naga Council backed the party, which railed against the division of Naga ancestral lands and pressed for progress on the Naga framework agreement, signed between the Centre and the rebel group, National Socialist Front of Nagalim (Isak-Muivah faction).

Hurt by defections

Second, both the Congress and the BJP were hit by defections. In Churachandpur, for instance, an old Congress heavyweight switched to the National People’s Party at the last minute. In these areas, the Congress was associated with the three divisive bills passed in 2015, which effectively imposed an inner line permit system on the whole state and gave rise to a backlash in the hills.

Meanwhile, as Congress heavyweights joined BJP ranks, they knocked out other members of the saffron party. The BJP, with no political record in the state, quickly gave tickets to the newcomers. Incensed and demoralised, older party workers joined parties like the National People’s Party and the Manipur National Democratic Front.

If neither the Congress nor the BJP has a clear majority, this salience of third parties could work well for the saffron party. In the Naga areas, many see a coalition between the Naga People’s Front and the BJP as the answer to their political demands. The Naga party and the saffron are already allies at the Centre, in Nagaland and the North East Democratic Alliance, launched last year by the BJP.

Moreover, several smaller players are likely to gravitate to the BJP as the party in power in Delhi, holding the key to Central funds. Even candidates of the apparently left-leaning Manipur National Democratic Front professed warmth for the BJP and did not seem averse to a post poll alliance.

Question is, will it boil down to a game of minnows for Manipur?