The Congress party is in serious decline. For the first time in history, it is down to single digits in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly. It may have come to power in Punjab, but was unable to form the government in both Goa and Manipur despite being the single-largest party. And yet, despite all this, the party’s vice president Rahul Gandhi does not seem perturbed. “We are in the Opposition and you have ups and downs,” Gandhi said, in his first public comments since the election results. “So, we had a little down in UP which is fine, we accept it.”

Since the Congress, every loss comes with a rather unusual post-mortem exercise: announcing who is not at fault.

  • “Rahul Gandhi cannot be blamed for everything,” said spokesperson Rajeev Shukla.
  • “Rahul is not responsible for the losses,” said leader Renuka Chowdhury.
  • The results are not a referendum on Rahul, said Leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha, Ghulam Nabi Azad.

But even that unusual chorus is a little quieter than it was after the historic defeat in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, when the Congress was reduced to just 44 seats. Fewer people are now speaking up to take the blame away from Rahul Gandhi, although the situation still hasn’t reached the point where more people are pointing fingers at him.

Instead, the more general criticism is now ubiquitous.

  • “We should be preparing ourselves, especially for elections, in advance. Not on the eve of elections,” said leader KV Thomas.
  • Congress needs “cardiac surgery,” said Rajya Sabha whip Satyavrat Chaturvedi.
  • “We have to seriously decide if we are going to do the ideological and strategic change that is required,” said leader Sandeep Dikshit.
  • Congress has shown repeatedly that it suffers from an auto-immune disease. Congress destroys Congress. We need to be treated from within to become healthy again, tweeted leader Priya Dutt.

Rahul Gandhi himself agreed that the party does need to make “structural, organisational changes”. But the fact remains, the Congress is still in much the same position it was after that debacle in 2014. Gandhi himself remains Vice-President, heir apparent in a party that has been teasing his coronation for years now.

The party is still unclear about its alliance approach. It tied up successfully with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Janata Dal United in Bihar, but will remain a junior partner. It began its Uttar Pradesh plans hoping to build organically and in opposition to all opponents, including the incumbent Samajwadi Party, before agreeing to a last-minute alliance that helped the Bharatiya Janata Party. It managed to win the largest number of seats in both Goa and Manipur, yet even there it was not able to move fast enough – or did not have deep enough pockets – to cobble together a government.

Failed narratives

The party remains heavily oriented towards its High Command, and specifically the whims of the Gandhi family. But even there it is unclear what is going on, as Party President Sonia Gandhi is unwell and Rahul Gandhi’s sister, Priyanka, remains unwilling to take a more public role despite the party teasing it for what feels like a decade now.

In the aftermath of the Modi government’s abortive attempt to introduce a Land Acquisition law, in 2014 and 2015, it seemed as if the Congress and Rahul Gandhi had snatched the agenda it was looking for. Portray Modi as the leader of a “suit-boot sarkar” and speak up for the poor and the oppressed.

Demonetisation, however, seems to have fully taken the wind out of the sails of that approach. From the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act to Aadhaar, Goods & Sevices Tax to Liquified Petroleum Gas subsidies, Modi has managed to use United Progressive Alliance-era schemes to sell himself as the reformer who is working for ordinary people. Only in Punjab, where it could point to the corruption of the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP government, was the Congress able to build a successful narrative to go along with anti-incumbency.

There isn’t much to look forward to for the Congress either. Of the upcoming elections, the Congress is not a front-runner in any of the big states: Karnataka, where its incumbent government looks to be in trouble; Gujarat, where the BJP’s stranglehold continues and Rajasthan, which holds the most promise but will be affected by Uttar Pradesh’s results. Will the long-awaited coronation-cum-cardiac surgery take place in enough time to actually change things in these elections?