As he was about to be inaugurated in January, United States President Donald Trump’s volatile personality and inconsistent track record inspired reams and reams of commentary about what the new administration would mean for Indo-American ties. Nearly four months into his presidency, the answer to that question might seem unexpected: Trump simply has not meant very much to India. It was telling then that the first major mention of India in a Trump speech came buried deep in his address at the Arab Islamic American Summit, with a reference to being a victim of terrorism.
America has suffered repeated barbaric attacks – from the atrocities of September 11th to the devastation of the Boston Bombing, to the horrible killings in San Bernardino and Orlando.
The nations of Europe have also endured unspeakable horror. So too have the nations of Africa and even South America. India, Russia, China and Australia have been victims. But, in sheer numbers, the deadliest toll has been exacted on the innocent people of Arab, Muslim and Middle Eastern nations. They have borne the brunt of the killings and the worst of the destruction in this wave of fanatical violence.
(emphasis added)
That’s it. The only mention of India in his first major speech abroad was as a victim of terrorism – and that too only as a lead-in to making the point that Arab nations have had to deal with the worst of this violence.
That India was not prominent in this speech may not be surprising. It was, after all, Trump’s attempt to speak directly to the Arab and Muslim world, months after issuing executive orders trying to ban the entry of Muslims into the US, which would later be suspended by American courts. That India has barely earned mention in any of Trump’s speeches so far, however, says a lot about where this relationship is going.
Whither India?
A quick search through the White House website, which collates Trump and other administration officials speeches and briefings, throws up less than two dozen references to India, most of which are minor. These include two of Trump’s calls to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, one soon after Trump took charge in which he called India a “true friend and partner”, and another to congratulate Modi after his Bharatiya Janata Party notched up a victory in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections.
The only recorded mention of India in a Trump speech before Sunday is actually quite telling: It comes from the US President’s campaign-style rally in Pennsylvania in April where the reference to India intentionally earned booing from the crowd.
“Our government rushed to join international agreements where the United States pays the cost and bears the burden while other countries get the benefits and pay nothing.”
[Booing]
“This includes deals like the one-sided Paris Climate Accord. Where the United States pays billions of dollars while China, Russia, and India have contributed and will contribute nothing.”
[Booing]
In addition to bashing India with flawed logic on climate change, the only other major issue that has cropped up over the last few months has been the question of H-1B visas. Trump has ordered reform of the visas for highly skilled workers, used heavily by Indian companies in the US, and an administration official even directly blamed Indian firms for trying to rig the visa lottery system.
Quiet retreat
This is not to say that Indo-US ties have soured. New Delhi still considers the US one of India’s most important allies and a key partner in the country’s attempt to ensure balance in Asia. The strategic dialogue and other lower-level meetings will continue to take place. It is just that, as far as Washington DC is concerned, India simply is not that important.
Stumbling from crisis to crisis at home, Trump has focused on dealing with the traditional powers like Russia and China, while also maintaining the older American focus on West Asia. Former US President Barack Obama’s abortive attempt at making Asia the keystone of American policy, in which India was to play a crucial role, has disappeared. Despite being a “big fan of India” (and “Hindu”), Trump has yet to nominate an ambassador to New Delhi. And the State Department still seems to be conducting a policy review of its South Asian approach.
This prompted Asia Society Policy Institute scholar Marshall Bouton to call on Trump not to repeat Obama’s mistake in ignoring India in its first year, saying instead that the two countries have deep ties, approaches that converge in a number of policy areas and leaders with similar styles. That change is unlikely to come on this trip for Trump, since he moves from Saudi Arabia to Israel, Italy and Belgium. The White House will get a chance to send a different signal when Modi has his first meeting with Trump on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in July, and there have been noises about the Indian Prime Minister visiting the US sometime this year. Until then, though the abiding sound of Indo-US ties is something quite unexpected after the cacophony of Trump’s election campaign: silence.
