Will it be a classic Narendra Modi hug or one of US President Donald Trump’s classic pull-hand-out-of-socket power moves? Or could the Indian prime minister take the high ground in the greetings battle and go with the folded-palms namaste? None of this would matter, of course, if Trump did not attach immense significance to body language and interpersonal interactions, which other world leaders – most prominently France’s Emmanuel Macron – have also used to score points. With the very first Trump-Modi meeting coming up on Monday in Washington, analysts in both countries (and on Twitter) are going to be watching closely.

But the handshake, or variant thereof, might also be the most that comes out of this first meeting between the two right-wing majoritarian leaders of the world’s largest democracies. Aides have downplayed expectations of any deliverables from Modi’s visit to the US, and have instead sought to sell the meeting as just an opportunity for the two to get to know each other. That process has already begun on Donald Trump’s favourite stomping grounds: Twitter.

Just because little is expected out of the meeting does not mean there is nothing to discuss. India and the US have deep, extensive contacts that cover many different areas, from defence to trade to diaspora concerns. As two large, relatively stable democracies the bilateral relationship is on firm territory, subject to plenty of smaller ups and downs. Despite a temporary deterioration in ties after the arrest of an Indian diplomat in the US 2013, the past decade has seen the two countries come together like never before.

Sticking points

Trump could potentially change that. In fewer than five months in the White House, he has already had a significant impact on ties – some positive, most very negative – on ties with Australia, the Europe Union, the United Kindom, a number of Arabian Gulf states and Cuba.

But unlike those countries, Trump has not expressed much of an opinion on most things regarding India, so it is unlikely that his tenure will feature any major realignment. Indeed, the biggest danger almost seems to be that Trump, busy as he is with domestic battles and questions about his ties with Russia, will mostly see India as an afterthought. His only significant mention of India in major speeches since he became President was to point out that it is a victim of terrorism.

The one bilateral area where Trump has enunciated a clear policy opinion is the question of jobs. Specifically, outsourcing as well as the presence of immigrant workers in his country. This has translated into tightening of rules on the H-1B visa, used by many Indian companies to send skilled professionals to the US, as well as vilification of firms that have moved jobs to Asia.

The other sticking point in the past few months has been the Paris Climate Change pact, which Trump pulled out of in May. While exiting the international agreement, Trump clearly named India among those countries that he believes got too good of a deal at the cost of the US. Modi disagreed, and even said India would go above and beyond the Paris pact.

Priorities

While it is likely that both of these will come up in DC, few expect any actual development on either front. What is more likely to take centre stage, and could even see some announcements, is the flourishing defence partnership between the two countries. This is likely to also be coupled with discussions about terrorism, including bringing up the question of Pakistan, Afghanistan and even China.

Initial meetings between leaders like this are most important both because they help set the terms of the inter-personal relationship, while also allowing the foreign policy teams on both sides to lay down the priorities that will form the foundation of the ties between the countries. It seems only natural that defence and terror will be the common ground that Trump and Modi will converge on.

The one wildcard here is Trump himself. Modi might have famously been called an “event manager” but his showmanship is nothing compared to the former reality television host he will be sitting down to dinner with in the White House. The Indian prime minister has mostly been on message in his many international visits, which have been carefully managed to ensure no major snubs or embarrassment. But as White House officials know well, it is impossible to be entirely in control where Trump is involved.

Both leaders will be reading out a statement after their one-on-one meeting at the White House, but will not be taking questions from the media afterwards. An American official has indicated that this was done at India’s behest. That minimises the chances of Trump or Modi having to give an answer to a question that the other may not like. But even if that goes off well, Indian officials will be up the next day watching closely to be sure that Trump hasn’t resorted to his other means of stoking controversy: The president’s late-night Twitter posts.