As soon as it was clear on Sunday that the Congress was on course to notch up a massive victory in the Lok Sabha by-election in Gurdaspur, Punjab, leaders in the party began saying it was a message to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party. Sunil Jakhar, of the Congress, won the seat by a huge margin, getting a record-breaking 1.9 lakh more votes than the BJP candidate.
“I had said it from the very first day that this election will be a mandate on the policies of Union government led by Modi,” Jakhar said after it became clear that he had won. Some of that is hyperbole. The Congress came to power in the state just earlier this year, and by-elections tend to favour the ruling party, particularly early in their tenures.
But a loss, or even a victory with a small margin, would have been damning for India’s principal Opposition party that is struggling to remain relevant across much of the country. Even if it is not a verdict on Modi – indeed, the loss might say as much about the party’s trouble-ridden alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal – the huge win for the Congress in Gurdaspur is a real booster for a party at a crucial moment.
Rahul coronation
The win is not just about the impending coronation in the Congress, although leaders naturally made reference to that too. “This is a beautiful Diwali gift, packed with a red ribbon, for our would be party president Rahul Gandhi,” said Navjot Singh Sidhu, a former BJP leader who crossed over to the Congress earlier this year. Indeed, Gandhi, currently the vice president of the party, is expected to take the top spot from his mother, Sonia Gandhi, in internal elections slated to happen sometime in the next month.
By itself, Rahul Gandhi’s impending elevation is not really a cause of celebration for the party. This is in part because it is so belated. Party members have been calling for the Nehru-Gandhi scion to be made president for nearly half a decade now. The fact that it has not happened so far has been the cause of much tension within the party and among its allies, for whom the elevation will come as a sigh of relief more than anything else. Moreover, the BJP has always felt that any news cycle that puts the spotlight on Rahul Gandhi works to their benefit, not least because of his spotty record at the helm of party affairs.
BJP on back foot
But much more than the Rahul Gandhi coronation – an event which actually has the potential to derail the current narrative by putting the focus on the Congress – is the belief that the BJP government is, at least rhetorically speaking, on the back foot. Modi remains immensely popular, yet the last month-and-a-half has seen the prime minister and his party being forced to constantly react to events instead of setting the agenda.
At the crux of these developments are the poor economic indicators that have emerged of late, coupled with simmering discontent from traders who are unhappy with the way the Goods and Services Tax was introduced. Those elements have since been magnified by the BJP’s reactions to them, whether it is pulling the U-turn by cutting taxes on fuel after vigorously defending high petrol prices or filing a criminal defamation case to counter an article about BJP President Amit Shah’s son’s business activities.
In that sense, it is actually the BJP’s losses on Sunday, in Gurdaspur and also in the Vengara by-election in Kerala – where it came in fourth – that are as significant. If the BJP had done decently in either of these contests, it would have been taken as proof that the talk of anger among the people is simply an Opposition fantasy. Instead, the spotlight now shifts to Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, states where elections are slated to be held in the next two months. In both of those contests, the BJP is expected to win handily. Anything less than a thumping majority, however, will be a signal that something has shifted.