When the Bharatiya Janata Party picked Madan Lal Saini as the consensus candidate to lead its Rajasthan unit on June 30, the aim was twofold. One, to end the three-month tussle between Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and BJP chief Amit Shah over the filling of the position in the poll-bound state. Two, to counter Congress grandee Ashok Gehlot, who comes from the same Mali caste as Saini.
It is debatable how effective Saini can be in eroding the former chief minister’s standing within their community since the BJP leader is not considered to be in the same leadership league. That, however, has not stopped Gehlot’s supporters from using Saini’s elevation to their leader’s benefit. They contend that to blunt the BJP’s move, the Congress should project Gehlot as its candidate for chief minister in the Assembly election later this year.
Gehlot is locked in a struggle for power with Sachin Pilot, with both eyeing the chief minister’s post. Pilot is known to be close to Congress chief Rahul Gandhi, who handpicked him as the Rajasthan Congress president four years ago. He is said to be Gandhi’s first choice for the chief ministership if the party wins the election.
Gehlot, though, has also managed to gain Gandhi’s confidence. As the party’s general secretary in charge of Gujarat, Gehlot spent a lot of time with Gandhi during the Assembly election there late last year. The Congress president was sufficiently impressed with Gehlot to appoint him general secretary in charge of organisation in place of the veteran leader Janardhan Dwivedi.
But while Gehlot may have been given a crucial position in the Congress headquarters in Delhi, he has made no secret of his desire to go back to his old job in Rajasthan.
Saini’s appointment as the BJP state chief has only strengthened Gehlot’s case. There are murmurs, particularly among Gehlot’s supporters, that the Congress could lose the Mali vote if it ignores the veteran leader’s claim to the top job. “The Congress will find itself in deep trouble if Rahul Gandhi does not project Gehlot as the party’s face in the election,” argued a party leader who is known to be in Gehlot’s camp.
Gehlot’s detractors, however, contend that the Mali electorate is not sizeable enough to swing the election. “Gehlot was a factor in Rajasthan even before Saini was named the BJP chief,” said a senior Congress leader who asked not to be named. “But his appointment has provided a fresh talking point to the Gehlot lobby to push his case.”
Gehlot, though, has much more going for him than just his caste identity. He is a non-controversial, low-key leader whom people see as being accessible. He is also well-connected with the party’s workers, having stayed in touch with them even after his government was ousted by the BJP in 2013.
Running battle
Pilot, on his part, has worked hard over the past four years to revive and strengthen the party’s moribund state unit. He achieved success early this year when the Congress notched up convincing victories in three bye-polls. The success was attributed to Pilot’s leadership, strengthening the perception that he will eventually pip Gehlot to the chief minister’s post.
On the flip side, Pilot continues to be seen as an “outsider” while Gehlot is viewed as one of the people. Pilot’s inexperience is another factor working against him. He has done two terms as an MP and a brief stint as a junior minister in the Manmohan Singh government. Gehlot, on the other hand, is an old warhorse. Though the party suffered a humiliating defeat under his leadership, many in the Congress argue the two-time former chief minister would be a safer bet as compared to a newcomer.
With the election less than six months away, the leadership battle within the Congress is only going to intensify. The stakes are high for both sides, given the party stands a good chance of ousting the Raje government. In recent weeks, supporters of both Pilot and Gehlot have stepped up efforts to get their respective leader projected as the chief ministerial candidate.
It appears Gandhi will have to step in quickly to end this simmering factional battle if the Congress is to stand a chance. The importance of winning Rajasthan for the Congress cannot be overstated victory. For one, it will help galvanise the party’s jaded cadre who have suffered a series of electoral losses since the 2014 general election. Moreover, as the election comes just a few months before next year’s general election, its outcome will set the tone for 2019. Both the Congress and the BJP are well aware of this.
Having lost a string of bye-elections in the state, the BJP is working overtime to beat back the anti-incumbency against the Raje government. The party has decided to shift the gaze away from the chief minister and project the election as a vote of confidence in Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is being publicised as the chief architect of various welfare schemes. At the same time, Raje has announced sops for farmers and started recruitment into government jobs to counter the opposition’s criticism that she has failed on the employment front.
The race has begun and the winner may well be decided by which side gets its act together sooner.
