“Something big has happened,” said Home Minister Rajnath Singh last week, implying that India had carried out a significant attack at the Line of Control. A few weeks ago, Indian Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman became the first government official on either side of the LoC to acknowledge that its Army mutilates bodies, which would contravene the Geneva Convention. Days later, the External Affairs Ministry said in a statement that the “evil agenda” of Pakistan stood exposed, in part because of the face of Kashmiri militant Burhan Wani showing up on that nation’s postage stamps. Shortly after, Army Chief Bipin Rawat said he believes there is the need for another surgical strike, replicating the September 2016 action India carried out on Pakistani “terror launch pads” across the LoC. Then on Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that it was “now decided” to allow Indian jawans to reply to Pakistan in a befitting manner.
When put in this chest-thumping manner, wrapped around the spin of “Surgical Strikes Day” on September 29, it seems as if Modi’s government is flexing its muscles at the incoming government of Imran Khan, who just took charge of Pakistan. Earlier this month, New Delhi accepted an offer of talks with Pakistan and then reversed its decision within 24 hours. All of this bluster is not aimed at Imran Khan. It is directed squarely at a domestic audience, ahead of important elections. It is not coming from a position of strength. It reflects failure, more than anything else.
Simply put, if the much-touted surgical strikes were effective in 2016, what would be the need for another? If Modi’s foreign policy had shown Pakistan its place by now, why would New Delhi have to now decide that jawans can respond as they wish? If something big had indeed happened at the Line of Control, would Rajnath Singh be the only one telling us about it?
The Bharatiya Janata Party is clutching at straws. And the nationalist argument is its best bet. It may not have a Kargil victory to tout, but it is determined to insist that the surgical strikes are a comparable achievement – even though every indicator suggests that, at best, it maintained the status quo on the line of control, if not made the situation worse. Regardless, Modi needs his own Kargil and the “event manager” will attempt to spin the strikes from molehill into Himalayan mountain.
Will it work? Going by the BJP President Amit Shah’s comments about Pakistan backing Congress President Rahul Gandhi, it is already clear that the rhetoric will be accompanied by blatant communal posturing. Even that may not be successful in the face of the government’s woeful economic record – no jobs, unhappy farmers, the failure of the Make in India initiative and allegations of corruption around the Rafale fighter plane deal. But for that very reason, India has to be prepared for the BJP to take its jingoistic, communal campaign as far as possible in an attempt to ensure it draws in the votes. With the communally polarising Babri Masjid case moving forward in the Supreme Court, there are already murmurs about what the BJP might have planned to exploit the issue at the enormous Kumbh Mela religious gathering in Allahabad next year. By this measure, Rajnath Singh’s comments about “something big” having happened sounds more like an ominous warning than a happy announcement for the country.
