The Bharatiya Janata Party has managed to secure crucial alliances in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections but is struggling to stitch together partnerships with smaller parties in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, which has 80 Lok Sabha seats.

Its two regional partners in the state – Suheldeo Bharatiya Samaj Party and Apna Dal (S) – are holding talks with its rivals for a pre-poll alliance. If they sever ties with the BJP, it will be a major setback for the saffron party, which has been rattled by the coming together of the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party in the state.

The leaders of the two allies have given the BJP leadership an ultimatum: that it must accept their demands or watch them walk away from the National Democratic Alliance. These two parties have a strong support base amongst the non-Yadav Other Backward Classes in eastern and central Uttar Pradesh, which was crucial to BJP’s landslide victory in the 2017 Assembly elections. If these parties break ties with the BJP, it will have to do without the support of this vote bank, which could hurt its performance in more than 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state. In the 2014 elections, the BJP bagged 71 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, with the Apna Dal adding two to take the National Democratic Alliance’s tally up to 73.

Suheldeo Bharatiya Samaj Party

OP Rajbhar, the chief of the Suheldeo Bharatiya Samaj Party and the minister for Disabled and Backward Classes Welfare in the Adityanath government, has been a bitter critic of the BJP and its policies in the last few months. He even wrote to Adityanath in mid-February offering to surrender his ministry, but was ignored.

Last week, Rajbhar met BJP President Amit Shah in Delhi but not much came out of it. Rajbhar will meet Shah again on Tuesday after which he will announce his next step.

“We met Shah last week and he sought time till February 26 to respond to our demands,” said a party leader on condition of anonymity. “We want sub-categorisation of the 27% Other Backward Class quota into three categories and appointment of party workers in various corporations and boards in the state. If they agree to our demands, we will remain with the BJP or else we will break all ties.”

Rajbhar’s other demand includes five Lok Sabha seats for his party. A decision on that too will be taken after Tuesday’s meeting.

Reports suggest that Rajbhar is in touch with the Samajwadi Party and even Shivpal Yadav’s Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party for an alliance if talks with the BJP fail.

During the 2017 state elections, the BJP had offered the Suheldeo Bharatiya Samaj Party eight Assembly seats, of which it won four. However, differences began to emerge between the allies after Rajbhar raised strong objections to the BJP’s communal politics and its inability to respect its allies.

“They do not have the capability or even the intent to take their alliance partners along,” he told Scroll.in in an interview in January. “We have been asking for a party office for almost two years but they just do not care. They just do not want to share power, and take regional parties for granted.”

The Suheldeo Bharatiya Samaj Party has contested several elections since 2004, when it was formed, but tasted victory only in 2017, when it contested the state elections in alliance with the BJP.

Rajbhar had contested successfully from Zahoorabad in Ghazipur district and has a considerable following among the Rajbhar community, which is considered the second most politically dominant Other Backward Classes group in Purvanchal (an area encompassing eastern Uttar Pradesh and western Bihar) after Yadavs.

Rajbhar claims to have the support of other non-Yadav Other Backward Classes groups like Kurmi, Mallah, Pal, Prajapati, Chauhan, Dhangar and Bind.

In 2014, the party had contested 12 Lok Sabha seats on its own but did not win any.

Apna Dal (S) also unhappy

The Apna Dal (S), once a trusted ally of the BJP, has also expressed displeasure at the treatment meted to its leaders by the BJP. The party contested the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in alliance with the saffron party and won the Mirzapur and Pratapgarh Lok Sabha seats. Apna Dal (S) leader Anupriya Patel was subsequently accommodated in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s council of ministers as Minister of State in the Ministry for Health and Family Welfare.

On February 21, Patel claimed that the BJP was ignoring the demands of its alliance partners. “We were facing some problems with the BJP and we had shared it with their party’s top leaders,” Patel was quoted as saying by ANI. “We had given them time till February 20 to resolve the issues but none of the problems were solved. This shows that BJP has no concern for its allies and is not interested in them and hence Apna Dal (S) is now free to choose its own path.”

Several reports claimed that Patel had met Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi, which further fuelled speculation that the Apna Dal was looking for other options ahead of the general elections.

The BJP is likely to face a setback if the party pulls out of the alliance with it.

The Apna Dal (S) has strong presence in several districts in eastern Uttar Pradesh particularly in Allahabad, Varanasi, Banda, Pratapgarh, Phulpur, Barabanki, Bareilly, Kheri, Mirzapur, Basti, among others.

It has considerable support amongst Kurmi, Patel, Verma and Katiyar voters. These castes play a decisive role in as many as eight Lok Sabha seats in central Uttar Pradesh. In eastern UP, Kurmi voters account for nearly 10% of the population in as many as 15 districts, and can influence the outcome of the elections here.

BJP leaders have claimed that though the Apna Dal (S) was content with two Lok Sabha seats in 2014, it is demanding a larger share for the upcoming general elections. “Apna Dal is demanding 10 seats which is just not possible,” said a BJP leader who did not want to be identified.

Senior BJP spokesperson Harish Chandra Srivastava said that his party was in talks with its regional allies, and that both would stay with the National Democratic Alliance. “In politics, these things happen and we are confident that our leadership will manage to convince the sulking allies,” said Srivastava. “We are a family and every step is being taken to iron out all differences.”

Asked whether the BJP will face a setback if these two parties decide to go their own way, Srivastava acknowledged that any break in ties could hurt the saffron party because of the support base the two parties have in certain regions of the state.

‘Parties simply posturing’

Some observers believe that the regional parties are only posturing in order to extract the maximum concessions from the BJP.

Professor AK Verma, who teaches political science at Kanpur University, pointed out that both the Suheldeo Bharatiya Samaj Party and Apna Dal (Sonelal) did not seem to be serious about quitting the National Democratic Alliance. He said threats by leaders of the two parties were pressure tactics to extract more seats from the BJP. “In 2017, the add-on vote share of Apna Dal and SBSP [Suheldeo Bharatiya Samaj Party] helped the BJP in putting up such a stellar performance,” he said. “However, on their own, these two parties are non-entities and it is in their best interests to continue with the alliance.”

According to Verma, the BJP will try its best to retain these allies. He said the two parties are unlikely to get a better deal in the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance. “[But] if they do decide to leave NDA [National Democratic Alliance], it would certainly be a major loss to the BJP,” he said.

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